If history is a guide – and it is – this ‘Magic Round’ will need to be really magic if sides outside the current top eight are any chance of September appearances, let alone glory.
A close examination of the history of the NRL after Round 8 shows that, while there is the likelihood of some changes in the ladder, where teams are sitting right now is likely to be where they finish at the end of the home-and-away season, and that the contenders for the wooden spoon and the premiership are getting very clear.
Let’s first look at the cellar dwellers.
NRL Wooden spooners – ladder position after Round 8
Year | Team | Ladder position |
---|---|---|
2018 | Eels | 16/16 |
2017 | Knights | 16/16 |
2016 | Knights | 15/16 |
2015 | Knights | 9/16 |
2014 | Sharks | 16/16 |
2013 | Eels | 15/16 |
2012 | Eels | 16/16 |
2011 | Titans | 11/16 |
2010 | Cowboys** | 13/15 |
2009 | Roosters | 12/16 |
2008 | Bulldogs | 12/16 |
2007 | Panthers | 15/16 |
2006 | Rabbitohs | 15/15 |
2005 | Knights | 15/15 |
2004 | Rabbitohs | 14/15 |
2003 | Rabbitohs | 15/15 |
2002 | Rabbitohs* | 11/15 |
2001 | Panthers | 14/14 |
2000 | Cowboys | 14/14 |
1999 | Wests | 14/17 |
1998 | Wests | 18/20 |
*in 2002 the Bulldogs officially finished last, but the Rabbitohs had the fewest wins.
**in 2010 the Storm officially finished last, but the Cowboys had the fewest wins.
As you can see, there are a few clear trends here:
So the chances are very high that the 2019 wooden spooners are already rooted to the bottom of the table. Those figures would not sit well at all with the Warriors, Broncos, Titans, Panthers and especially the Bulldogs, as the side with the worst points differential routinely comes last.
So what chances, then, does a side that is not presently in the top eight have of making it into the finals?
Changes to top eight after Round 8
Year | Changes | Teams out | Teams in |
---|---|---|---|
2018 | Two | Wests Tigers and Knights | Sharks and Broncos |
2017 | Two | Dragons and Raiders | Eels and Panthers |
2016 | Two | Sea Eagles and Eels | Panthers and Titans |
2015 | Three | Titans, Wests Tigers and Panthers | Roosters, Bulldogs and Sharks |
2014 | Two | Titans and Wests Tigers | Cowboys and Storm |
2013 | Two | Titans and Broncos | Sharks and Bulldogs |
2012 | Two | Dragons and Knights | Raiders and Rabbitohs |
2011 | One | Warriors | Bulldogs |
2010 | Two | Rabbitohs and Eels | Warriors and Raiders |
2009 | Two | Rabbitohs and Panthers | Sea Eagles and Eels |
2008 | Three | Knights, Wests Tigers, Titans | Raiders, Dragons and Warriors |
2007 | Two | Wests Tigers and Sharks | Eels and Broncos |
2006 | Three | Dragons, Raiders, Eels | Cowboys, Sharks and Roosters |
2005 | Three | Raiders, Panthers and Warriors | Eels, Dragons and Wests Tigers |
2004 | One | Knights | Cowboys |
2003 | One | Dragons | Bulldogs |
2002 | Three | Storm, Wests Tigers and Bulldogs* | Sharks, Dragons and Raiders |
2001 | One | Wests Tigers | Warriors |
2000 | Two | Wests Tigers and Northern Eagles | Storm and Eels |
1999 | Three | Raiders, Panthers and Bears | Eels, Dragons and Broncos |
1998 | One | Cowboys | Tigers |
*Bulldogs stripped of all points for salary cap breaches
^1998 had a ten team finals series
All is not totally lost for a side presently outside the eight hoping to rectify that by the end of the home-and-away season. Of the 168 available finals spots over the past 21 seasons, 43 of them (25.6 per cent) have been grabbed by sides that were out of the top eight after Round 8.
These figures show a few sides that frequently get off to good starts and then fall away to miss the finals:
Conversely, there are a few sides that often come home with a wet sail:
However, this then brings us to the next factor: the top four. No side in the NRL era has won the premiership if they have finished the home-and-away season outside the top four.
History shows that after Round 8 that sides do regularly force their way into the top four by season’s end.
Changes to top four after Round 8
Year | Changes | Teams out | Teams in |
---|---|---|---|
2018 | Three | Dragons, Warriors and Panthers | Roosters (8th), Rabbitohs and Sharks |
2017 | Two | Dragons (9th) and Sharks | Broncos and Eels |
2016 | One | Broncos | Raiders |
2015 | One | Dragons | Roosters |
2014 | Three | Bulldogs, Wests Tigers (15th) and Titans (9th) | Roosters, Panthers and Rabbitohs (7th) |
2013 | Zero | Nil | Nil |
2012 | Three | Sharks, Broncos and Dragons | Bulldogs, Rabbitohs and Sea Eagles |
2011 | Two | Dragons and Cowboys | Sea Eagles (5th) and Wests Tigers |
2010 | One | Sea Eagles | Wests Tigers |
2009 | One | Broncos | Storm (6th) |
2008 | Two | Titans (3rd) and Broncos | Sharks and Roosters |
2007 | Zero | Nil | Nil |
2006 | One | Cowboys (1st) | Bulldogs |
2005 | Three | Cowboys, Sharks and Sea Eagles | Eels, Dragons and Wests Tigers (10th) |
2004 | One | Dragons | Panthers |
2003 | Two | Broncos and Storm | Panthers (8th) and Bulldogs |
2002 | One | Bulldogs (3rd)* | Roosters (7th) |
2001 | Two | Broncos and Roosters | Eels and Bulldogs |
2000 | Two | Sharks and Wests Tigers (4th) | Roosters and Knights |
1999 | One | Panthers (2nd) | Eels |
1998 | One^ | Roosters | Eels |
*Bulldogs stripped of all points for salary cap breaches.
^1998 had a ten team finals series.
In the ‘teams out’ column an italicised team failed to make the finals, with the figure in brackets where they were placed after Round 8.
In the ‘teams in’ column an italicised team won the premiership, with the figure in brackets where they were placed after Round 8.
Of the 84 available top-four spots over the 21 seasons of the NRL, 33 of them (39.3 per cent) have been taken by sides that weren’t in the top four after Round 8. That’s an average of 1.6 changes per season.
Of those 33 sides that have forced their way into the top four at the end of the home-and-away season after a lesser start, only seven of them (21.2 per cent) have won the premiership.
Only one of those victorious sides – the Wests Tigers in 2005 – were outside the top eight after Round 8.
So where were the eventual premiers placed at the conclusion of Round 8 in their respective seasons?
NRL premiers after Round 8
Year | Premier | Ladder position |
---|---|---|
2018 | Roosters | 8/16 |
2017 | Storm | 1/16 |
2016 | Sharks | 4/16 |
2015 | Cowboys | 4/16 |
2014 | Rabbitohs | 7/16 |
2013 | Roosters | 3/16 |
2012 | Storm | 1/16 |
2011 | Sea Eagles | 5/16 |
2010 | Dragons | 1/16 |
2009 | Storm | 6/16 |
2008 | Sea Eagles | 4/16 |
2007 | Storm | 2/16 |
2006 | Broncos | 3/15 |
2005 | Wests Tigers | 10/15 |
2004 | Bulldogs | 1/15 |
2003 | Panthers | 8/15 |
2002 | Roosters | 7/15 |
2001 | Knights | 2/14 |
2000 | Broncos | 1/14 |
1999 | Storm | 4/17 |
1998 | Broncos | 1/20 |
The huge and overwhelming stat here is that two-thirds of the time the eventual premier is already now in the top four. That means things look the best for the Roosters, Rabbitohs, Raiders and Storm.
In almost a third of occasions the eventual premier was sitting on top of the NRL ladder at the end of Round 8.
Again, only once out of 21 seasons – 2005 – was the eventual premier not in the top eight by the end of Round 8.
So for all of those sides from ninth position downwards, they’d better be weaving some pretty special magic indeed this magic round if they are any chance of glory in October.
Tim Gore
Expert
This is still aging like a fine wine! :stoked:
Tim Gore
Expert
This aged well...
Cugel
Roar Rookie
Canberra won't make the 8, let alone top four.
mushi
Roar Guru
Yep there is always hope... unless you follow parramatta
ScottWoodward.me
Roar Guru
Hi Tim, For the first time the stat that no team has played in the World Club Challenge in the UK pre-season and come back and won the P'ship this century. History says the Roosters will hit a brick wall, but sitting in the freezing cold at the huuuge SCG last Sat night, the Roosters looked every bit set for back to back.
DP Schaefer
Roar Rookie
great article Tim, loved it, Gee you put a lot into this and I get the general message, won't be too many changes to the 8 by year's end and Premier will likely come from the current top 4. Couldn't argue with that, though I wouldn't be surprised to see Raiders in the last dance this year. The only smokies are Sharks and maybe Dragons if Mary gets it together - they have the roster that could.
Forty Twenty
Roar Rookie
Cap penalties are always a pain in the neck of course but I seem to recall the figures stacking up pretty well if I disregarded the year teams finished at the tail due to cap penalties. I was looking at it from the angle of how optimistic you should be if you follow a team who has a very average year and visa versa. As it stands a bottom 4 finish is not so bad.
Forty Twenty
Roar Rookie
I'm not sure but if the trend continues there will be more premiers from that lot in the future than the top 4. The Storm are due for a spell in the doldrums.
Rob
Guest
I think it's a 2 horse race between the Chooks and Bunnies. Dragons and Sharks the only dangers.
mushi
Roar Guru
I didn’t look at bottom 4 v top 4 but last years for and agaisnt was more correlated to next years win total than ladder. When you did bottoom 4 how did you account for cap penalties?
Adam
Roar Guru
Well colour me pink! I feel like my whole life is a lie
Nat
Roar Guru
You don't that's more of a coincidence then a true marker?
Adam
Roar Guru
You reckon the Broncs, Titans, Panthers and Bulldogs will spring a surprise next year - if we take into account Tim's theory that these 4 sides will likely make up this years bottom 4?
JOHN ALLAN
Guest
Boyd has to lift. Perhaps he has been subconsciously promoting Magic Round all year by continually disappearing. He also commented that Roberts should show loyalty to repay Brisbane for all they've done for him. How's your CLUB loyalty Darius?
Forty Twenty
Roar Rookie
I did a bit of research a while back to see what finishing in the bottom 4 does to a teams chance of winning a title in the future compared to finishing in the top 4. The results showed that the bottom 4 generated more future premiers than the top 4.
Tim Gore
Expert
But all but one were in the top eight.
Rellum
Roar Guru
This is the most lopsided season I have seen for a while. It really feels now like a Roosters Storm repeat. Hopefully the Raiders can maybe spring a surprise. I have basically already written the Broncs off. Prove me wrong Broncs.
The Barry
Roar Guru
I didn’t think the headline matched the analysis either. There’s a lot more turnover than I would have guessed. “Of those 33 sides that have forced their way into the top four at the end of the home-and-away season after a lesser start, only seven of them (21.2 per cent) have won the premiership” A few of those 33 appeared in the same season. Obviously two teams can’t win a premiership in the same season. If you express it slightly differently as “in 19 seasons at least one team forced their way into the top four. Seven times (36.8%) they’ve gone on to win the premiership” it becomes a stat that supports the competition is far from decided. Even raw data of seven from 21 shows that 33% of premiers aren’t in the top four after round 8. I think that’s pretty surprising.
Flexis
Roar Rookie
I find those wooden spoon statistics particularly interesting. You would think with injuries and a long season with rep footy in the middle that there would be more teams falling away to “win” the spoon. But short of 2015 it’s written in stone after a third of the season.
mushi
Roar Guru
Not sure what you mean with the first part at all. 4th is obviously the lesser part of a group of four, but I wasn't trying to say that though as it's kind of redundant. As to the key point again I have a fundamentally different conclusion. Don't you start, under this type of analysis, with only a 6.25% chance anyway so being sub 5% when you've performed badly for a third of the year is pretty good. That suggests to me that there is less predictive power for the next 2/3 than I would have otherwise thought.