In the aftermath of Carlton’s calamitous 93-point loss to Greater Western Sydney in Round 9 the AFL media predictably sharpened their pitchforks, lit their torches and descended on Ikon Park to demand the head of Brendon Bolton.
With just 16 wins in 75 games, the would-be executioners point to Bolton’s record as head coach as ample evidence for his impeachment.
But with the fixation on this one arbitrary statistic, commentators have merely created a convenient scapegoat and given a free pass to the real culprits of the Blues’ misery: the senior players.
In the Round 9 loss Carlton’s top-five possession-getters had a combined 93 games of AFL experience.
And of the top nine, only Dale Thomas had played more than 60 games, with Sam Petrevski-Seton (51 games) and Charlie Curnow (53 games) the only others to have made 50 appearances.
The fact that Bolton has done an A+ job of developing talent has been totally ignored, with great improvement seen in almost all of the Carlton young players in his time as head coach.
In 2019 alone Carlton fans have seen the emergence of Harry McKay as one of the competition’s most dominant marking forwards, the evolution of Petrevski-Seton from inconsistent small forward to proficient midfielder and Zac Fisher develop as a dependable winger-turn-goal sneak.
Harry McKay (Adam Trafford/AFL Media/Getty Images)
No. 1 draft pick Sam Walsh has had arguably the greatest start to an AFL career we have ever witnessed, while eight-game GWS recruit Will Setterfield has looked right at home returning from an ACL injury.
Charlie Curnow has led the club’s goalkicking in 2018 and appears set to become one of the AFL’s elite mid-forward hybrids at just 22 years old, while Patrick Cripps is the short-odds Brownlow favourite at the age of 24.
Bolton has done absolutely all he can with the tools at his disposal. It’s time we focus the crosshairs on Carlton’s criminally underperforming experienced players.
Big-name recruit Mitch McGovern crossed to the Blues after he was reportedly unsatisfied with Adelaide’s valuation of his talents. This season McGovern has averaged career lows in disposals and tackles while taking two marks fewer per game than he did in 2018. Having cost the Blues two second-round picks, McGovern has now had his fitness and ability called into question in 2019.
Meanwhile, fellow esteemed recruit Alex Fasolo’s Carlton career is spiralling into bust territory. Having broken his arm at an Australia Day party shortly after signing a reported $1 million contract, the ex-Pie has managed just two senior games for his new club and finds himself in a less-than-inspiring run of form for the Northern Blues.
And while the Blues’ mediocre recruits fail to fire, many of the club’s once reliable figures have provided fresh headaches for Bolton.
Having been swung forward, soon-to-be-30-year-old Ed Curnow is in the midst of his worst season statistically since 2013. With eight goals so far in 2019, his impact on the scoreboard hardly makes up for his reduced output in other areas. Gathering seven fewer possessions per game than last year, Curnow’s tackling numbers have also taken a dramatic dive to a career-low 2.6 per game, almost two less than his previous worst of 4.5.
Ex-captain Marc Murphy’s career appears to be dwindling, with a fresh rib injury ruling him out for up to a month. The one-time All Australian’s body has begun to fail him, having managed just 22 games since 2017. The 31-year-old averages more than six disposals fewer than he did in 2017 and, like his fellow leaders, has also bottomed out to a career low in tackling numbers.
In fact the average age of Carlton’s top-six tacklers this season is 21 – the eldest being Cripps – while Jones and Ed Curnow are the only Blues over the age of 24 to have laid 20 tackles.
Cripps’s 63 tackles account for a fraction under 12 per cent of Carlton’s total tackles in 2019. To put this into context, Adam Treloar leads Collingwood with 39 tackles (7.7 per cent), while Luke Dahlhaus’s 47 account for 8.1 per cent of Geelong’s tackles. Consistently competitive clubs are not tackling less; they are just seeing regular contributions from more players.
Where Carlton’s senior figures go missing, it comes as little surprise to see Collingwood’s leaders at the top of their club’s tackling numbers. Treloar, Brodie Grundy, Scott Pendlebury, Steele Sidebottom, Travis Varcoe and Taylor Adams all in the top ten.
The Blues senior players are not even close to bringing the effort or intensity required at AFL level, with too much left to Cripps and co.
At some stage the onus has to fall on these players to step up and take responsibility for the club’s performances – it’s just too easy to think that sacking the head coach is the solution to all of Carlton’s problems.
The club’s young players will soon form the spine of the first consistent Carlton outfit we have seen in close to a decade, but it remains to be seen which senior players will join them.
Salty
Guest
Interesting article Hayden. AFL is all about stats in the current times. You are either winning, losing or breaking even. CFC has made diabolical errors in the last 15 years. The selection of players and coaches has been poor. Unfortunately for Brendan Bolton, his stats are also poor. I agree that players have let the team down but ultimately the coach is responsible for skilling, preparing and motivating players to get results and improve the stats. Brendan has not done this in my opinion. From what I can gather he complicates the game and consequently key messages are not being carried out by his personnel. If CFC are happy with to remain then they are happy for continuing to see their stats decline.
Macca
Roar Rookie
When 11 players are 21 or under and 12 have less than 50 games experience you will get that lack of mental discipline. It will come.
Glenn
Guest
what i see as a lifelong blues supporter is a team that lacks a mental discipline needed for an entire AFL game,that is not just the responsibility of the coaching staff but also the players, more so the senior players,mind you there are also some players on the club that are not AFL level players,and need to be dropped for younger blood,to gain experience,the club is still rebuilding and growing,it will take time,we have the talent,we just need that mental discipline to improve and maybe dropping a few players might wake some of the others up.
Macca
Roar Rookie
Not much TBH, I do rate him as a player but given he is gong to be 31 before next season starts we would only be bringing him in if the Crows were throwing him out.
Pedro The Fisherman
Roar Rookie
With his injury history Mitch McG will have to play until he is 47 if he is to play 200 games!
Ditto
Roar Rookie
Geez Macca, your up against it when your own supporter base is calling Mitch McGovern a spud. Anyway, in another Carlton article you flagged the idea of Gibbs returning to Carlton, I was just wondering, if it was up to you, what you'd be prepared to give in a trade?
Col from Brissie
Roar Guru
If senior players need a coach to motivate them then they should give the game away.
Col from Brissie
Roar Guru
No thanks.
Wayne Kerr
Guest
We would be mad not to pursue him.
Brendan
Guest
You clearly state the Blues senior players are not even close to bringing the required effort.Surely this is a reflection in Bolton's coaching if he cannot motivate experienced players to perform.Others have made the argument he has backed off the senior players to give younger guys more opportunity but in light of recent results it isn't the way forward.Everyone at Carlton should not be asked why they should go but rather why should they stay.
PeteB
Roar Rookie
It’s a crucial time to get our coaching decision right. We’ve got a talented list now but very young and inexperienced. Bolton needs to demonstrate he is developing and getting the best out of the players. He needs a few wins before the end of the season and also stem the blowout losses to be considered for the job next year.
Macca
Roar Rookie
Curnow has had very little consistency so far this year and battled a bruised knee since round 2 after picking up a calf injury in the JLT
Macca
Roar Rookie
Again this is a very considere and well reasoned article. I would however make the observation that part of the decline in Ed Curnow and Marc Murphy's stats is by design. Bolton wants to fast track the young players development by giving them greater exposure in the middle, Curnow and Murphy have been pushed out to allow the likes of Dow,Fisher, Walsh, SPS and Cuningham to grow. The reason you can laud Bolton's coaching for the development of Fisher and SPS is because Murphy and Curnow have stepped back. I would also point out that Mitch McGovern came to the blues with an injury and then hurt his back in Jan, it isn't surprising he is down statistically (not to mention he is playing in a less experienced side). He has also managed 14 goals from his 8 games.
Cat
Roar Guru
Brad Scott is now available ...
Macca
Roar Rookie
14 goals from 8 games off a limited pre-season is a pretty good return for a spud.
Brendon the 1st
Roar Rookie
I agree, he needs another year. I haven't watched heaps of Carlton, but Curnow seems to be underperforming, why would that be, is he injured? McGovern can play but is a massive sook.
Charlie
Roar Rookie
Some good observations in this article, however I would like to note one thing. Mitch McGovern had played 48 games before being traded to Carlton. To lump him in as an "underperforming senior player" is a little unfair. By comparison, Charlie Curnow had played 47 games prior to this year, is he a senior player? I'm not saying that either of these two have played their best footy this year, but they are both relatively inexperienced. It's widely believed J. McGovern took 50 games to really start to shine, let's hope that his brother shows the same improvement.
brad barber
Guest
good article. we got the wrong mcgovern. he is a spud. fasolo is rubbish as well. easy money, not even trying. hopefully the players ripped into mcgovern in their meeting the other day.
Macca
Roar Rookie
Looks like a reasonable crack at analysis for a change but I haven't given it a good read, I'll comment more when I get the chance to do it justice. No doubt won't get the traction the negative article do.
Macca
Roar Rookie
I reckon you missed another one this morning Peter.