India will win this World Cup on the back of commanding tournaments by evergreen keeper-batsman MS Dhoni and pace prodigy Jasprit Bumrah.
That is among my predictions for the 2019 World Cup, which starts today.
Semi-finalists: India, South Africa, Australia, England
England and India are the two clear favourites for this tournament, while Australia have built great momentum and South Africa have a wonderful bowling attack. I expect New Zealand to also press strongly for a spot in the semis.
Winner: India
The 2011 World Cup champions are the most rounded team in this tournament, as I outlined in a recent piece for The Roar.
India a top four which extremely accomplished and boasts an extraordinary amount of experience. They also have quality quicks and the best spin combination in ODIs.
Related
Top three most valuable batsmen
MS Dhoni (India)
Fresh from smashing 113 from 78 balls in India’s final warm-up match against Bangladesh, 37-year-old Dhoni is peaking at the perfect time.
In ten one day matches for India this year he has creamed 467 runs at 78. Underlining his phenomenal consistency, six of his 10 scores in that time have been of 48-plus.
What makes me so confident he will control this World Cup is not just his immense skill and experience, but his phenomenal composure.
I cannot remember Dhoni ever looking flustered with bat in hand, no matter how difficult the scenario. Dhoni lives for the big moment, for the final over, for the clutch situation.
He top scored for India in the 2015 semi-final against Australia, and made 91* to rescue India from a shaky start and lead them to victory in the 2011 final.
He’s also averaged 53 with the bat across the past two World Cups, highlighting how much he enjoys the centre stage of this global tournament.
Glenn Maxwell (Australia)
If Australia are to defend their World Cup – and they have a strong chance to do so – they will need Maxwell to have a blinder.
In an otherwise one-paced Aussie batting line-up, Maxwell offers the variety, the balance, the fear factor. With Australia’s top four looking solid, the cavalier all-rounder should get some good platforms from which to indulge his unique brand of cricketing mayhem.
Australia’s Glenn Maxwell. (Mark Nolan/Getty Images)
Both with bat and ball Maxwell is in his best form since the 2015 World Cup. He tore that tournament to shreds by clattering 324 runs at an average of 65 with a jaw-dropping strike rate of 182, while also bowling tidily.
Now his touch is again ominous. In Maxwell’s last 10 one dayers for Australia he has smoked 458 runs at 57, with a scorching strike rate of 141. More carnage is imminent.
Jos Buttler (England)
Buttler is now the MVP of ODI cricket, as I argued in this recent piece for The Roar.
When England bat first his ballistic striking often pushes them to a total beyond their opposition. When England chase Buttler’s phenomenal rate of scoring ensures opponents remain on edge as long as he’s at the crease.
Top three most valuable bowlers
Jasprit Bumrah (India)
The fact I have two Indian bowlers on this short list – Bumrah and Yadav – underscores why I think they will win this tournament.
In do-or-die World Cup matches I will always favour the team with the better attack and India’s is the best around, with Bumrah the world’s finest white ball quick and Kuldeep the top ODI spinner.
Like Dhoni, Bumrah has a remarkably cool demeanour. Perhaps it is the result of bowling at the death in so many high-stakes IPL matches.
Whatever the case, Bumrah is easily the first bowler I would choose to bowl for my life in the last over of a limited overs match. He is deadly with the new ball, consistently makes an impact in the middle overs and is the best death bowler I have ever seen.
India’s Jasprit Bumrah (Robert Cianflone/Getty Images)
Trent Boult (New Zealand)
Boult was incredible in the 2015 World Cup, taking 22 wickets at 16. Yet now, at 29 years of age, he is an even better bowler.
By playing a mountain of T20 cricket in those intervening four years he has expanded his bowling repertoire. But the bedrock of Boult’s game remains his unparalleled ability to swing the new white ball very late and at a lively pace.
The number two ranked ODI bowler in the world, Boult has taken 26 wickets at 14 in his last ten one dayers for New Zealand.
Kuldeep Yadav (India)
Kuldeep is the only specialist left arm wrist spinner expected to play regularly in this tournament. That alone makes him a massive weapon in this high-scoring era when having variety in a bowling attack is paramount.
Combine that with his befuddling array of changeups, including at least three different styles of wrong ‘uns, and you have the most confusing ODI bowler on the planet.
But Kuldeep is not just a novelty act. He is calm, accurate and cunning. All of this has helped him build an outstanding ODI record of 87 wickets at 21.
What’s more is he has a terrific ODI record against the three other teams I expect to make the semi-finals, having grabbed 45 wickets at 22 in his matches against England, SA and Australia.
Breakout stars
Shaheen Afridi (Pakistan)
This guy might just be the most exciting teenage cricketer on the planet. A 198cm tall left armer who can swing the ball at 145kmh, Afridi is the rarest of cricketing commodities.
In my time watching cricket there has been only one other bowler of this type and that is Starc, who has been arguably the best ODI quick of the past decade.
Having only turned 19 last month, Afridi has already made a significant impact in ODIs, with 24 wickets at 25 from his 14 matches. Afridi can be expensive but is a born wicket taker.
Lungi Ngidi (South Africa)
At just 23 years old Ngidi already has the accuracy, composure and consistency of a much more experienced bowler.
He has needed no time to find his feet at ODI level. Instead he’s been highly influential from the get go, taking 34 wickets at 21 so far, and averaging nearly two wickets per game.
His precision is complemented by steepling bounce and the ability to find just enough seam movement. Ngidi looks set to become a three-format star of world cricket.
Biggest flop
Mark Wood (England)
The British press have been hyping Wood for years and have him pegged as a key element of England’s World Cup push.
Yet at 29 years of age the express quick is still yet to deliver anything more than the very occasional burst of brilliance. After 41 ODIs he averages 45 with the ball.
And despite his reputation as a natural wicket taker Wood has a very lofty strike rate of 48, which compares extremely unfavourably against the strike rates of Australian quicks Mitchell Starc (26), Nathan Coulter-Nile (29) and Pat Cummins (31).
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DingoGray
Roar Guru
I think there's going to be one of the Big 4 miss the semi's..... Looking at last night, you would have to say that South Africa is the one........ Who replaces them, NZ, Pakistan...... I just have a feeling about the West Indies..... Could we get the perfect storm from them just like their T20 WC win a bit back.....
DingoGray
Roar Guru
Finch isn't the only one in so-so form. Warner hardly is super touch......
The Bush
Roar Guru
The white ball is a Kooka, the same one they've used for a long time now, why would it suddenly swing a lot more in England?
The Bush
Roar Guru
Maxwell in 2019: 11*, 48, 26, 40, 4, 47, 23, 1, 19, 71, 98 and 70 = 458 runs at 41.63 at a strike rate of 126.51, batting at 6 and 7. Definitely only coming off 1 in 10...
Riccardo
Roar Rookie
Good analysis Ronan. Bugger it! Neesham has looked good since coming back with a decent attitude but I fear Lovely Trenty will need more support than that. Southee, Henry or Ferguson needs to have a great tournament and the slow guys need to arrest the middle stanzas too. How they handle the death overs will also be interesting The other truth is that our batting can be brittle if Guptill, Kane or Roscoe aren't in the hunt as well. The Black Caps are more a sum-of-their-parts team IMO and this can also be their strength. And we have a decent draw in which to get up to speed. Our progress may be dependant on how much fight there is in the dog and how we take advantage of what luck comes our way via pitch and weather conditions. We are still good enough to surprise. How good were England last night?!
Phil Brown
Guest
SA looked very poor with the bat whilst England very good (surprisingly) with the ball. Archer looks a monster, nearly took Amlas head off!
ArzyD
Guest
Your Archer comment has aged well...............
Nick
Guest
In 1983, there were plenty of West Indian, Pakistani, New Zealand and South African players in county cricket but at most there was only one member of the India's winning team, i.e. Kapil Dev and I'm not even sure whether he had played for Northamptonshire by that point. There had been Indian players in England, e.g. Bedi, Engineer, Doshi but they weren't in the World Cup winning team.
Gurlivleen Grewal
Roar Pro
It might have come off as such but I have reasons. The form of openers - Rohit and Dhawan are both hit and miss and while they are made out to be a very good top 3, they aren't close to reliable against quality pace, 10:30 starts - there first 4 opponents have quality. I have concerns about Kuldeep too, while he has made impact against all batting lineups - off late his performance has dipped, whether it is players picking him well, loss of confidence? He might get into a rhythm but if he fails, he would be quickly jettisoned for Jadeja - which will weaken the team overall. Then is the fact that the first 4 opponents would have played more top level cricket than India. The no 4 is an obvious concern too. To put it simply, if it were a stock market kind of situation, I wouldn't buy India's stock only if they beat SA in the first game. As I write their bowling attack restricted Eng to 311, with no Steyn, Morris.
Renegade
Roar Guru
I see India flopping big time, will struggle to make the semis for mine. Eng, Aus & NZ attack to rip through them similar to the warm-up against the Black Caps last week. Maybe Pakistan or SA in their place. It is definitely the most open World Cup in a very long time.
DTM
Guest
But is the ball going to swing?
13th Man
Guest
In their practice matches they had Brathwaite at 9 and Nurse at 10!! Some serious firepower. Potential danger game for the Aussies at Trent Bridge I reckon... tiny ground, if there bats get going it could be a worry.
13th Man
Guest
I guess you could say that the West Indies exposed a bit of that in the most recent warm up match. Having said that they rolled also India so who really knows. I'd expect them to go with Southee to partner Boult along with Sodhi, Santner with De Grandhomme and Needham chipping in. Your quite correct when it comes to their bowling attack however something about New Zealand has always helped them over achieve in world cups when on paper their sides have been weaker than others. Call it a pick on gut feel more than anything else if I'm honest.
Nudge
Roar Rookie
Well that doesn’t look to be good reading if you’re a kiwi fan
Ronan O'Connell
Expert
NZ have a very good batting lineup but I’m not at all sold on their bowling – they so heavily on Boult to dominate. Because all their other bowlers have serious limitations or question marks against their records, especially against the top teams. Ferguson has been smashed by the top teams – he averages 66 with the ball in his 9 ODIs against Eng/India/SA/Aus with an awful economy rate of 6.42rpo Sodhi against those top four teams averages 42 with the ball from 15 matches. Santner has done well against Australia but really laboured against Eng/India/SA, averaging 45 against them from 28 ODIs. Southee has really fallen away as an ODI bowler – he has averaged 41 over the last three calendar years (30 matches). Henry is terrific on the more bowler-friendly wickets in NZ but is mostly very poor away from home on flatter decks – in his 9 ODIs in Eng/Aus/India he has averaged 48 at a whopping economy rate of nearly 7 runs per over. Boult is NZ’s best bowler by so, so far it is incredible. And I think that glaring lack of quality support for Boult will end up hurting NZ. In the last World Cup Boult at least had the support of Vettori absolutely bowling the house down, and Southee and Anderson in good nick. That’s not to say that one of the other NZ bowlers can’t have a breakout tournament. But the long-term form of all of the other bowlers does not make for good reading in a tournament on mostly flat decks. Just as a comparison – Coulter-Nile is only Australia’s 4th/5th choice bowler yet he’s more proven against the top teams than NZ’s 2nd choice bowler (whoever that may be, after Boult). Unlike the NZ bowlers I’ve analysed above, there’s no glaring gap in NCN’s record – he averages 26 overall, 27 away from home, and 28 vs the top teams of Eng/India/SA (from 21 matches). To me, that comparison underscores NZ’s real lack of depth in bowling, and highlights why I don’t see them as a major threat to win this World Cup.
Nick
Roar Guru
If Guptill finds form they have a potent batting line up. Neesham is in good form too
13th Man
Guest
May sound crazy but I've got NZ winning the whole thing. They were excellent against India but did get pumped around by the Windies but still scored 330 themselves. I just put that down to the Windies having one of those days where they were unbeatable with the bat - something that could happen to anyone in this tournament. NZ look well balanced, if it seams at all I'd back their bowling attack. Boult is one of the best seamers in the world. Aussies, India, Poms and Saffers will be there and there abouts as well... the latter two have history against them. I am backing Smith to have a huge tournament and be the leading run scorer whilst I'm backing Boult to take the most wickets. Biggest flop will be Jofra Archer, the bloke has been there for 5 minutes and I reckon if he even gets a game tonight South Africa will punish him. Also backing Afghanistan to get one win against one of the big boys. Maybe Pakistan or Sri Lanka. South Africa to upset England tonight as well
DaveJ
Roar Rookie
Interesting to see that many games are sold out (as are most days of the Ashes already!). England are hoping to catch the same mood that helped their team get to the football World Cup semis last year, which was huge. However, there is a lot of bitterness in Britain because matches are only televised on pay TV (Sky, another Murdoch company). Let’s hope we don’t go further down that road in Australia, where Cricket Australia have already sold out less well heeled fans (abetted by the Government and regulators) by allowing ODIs to go exclusively to Foxtel, subverting the anti-siphoning legislation.
Nudge
Roar Rookie
Australia England India and West Indies the dark horse for me. I don’t rate India as highly as you Ronan. We beat them in there own backyard not long ago without Smith Warner and Starc. For memory they only had Pandya out. They were also belted in the warm up by the kiwis who I can’t see making the semi’s. Australia v England final, and whoever bats first wins
anon
Roar Pro
We just smashed India in India.