There has been a lot of analysis about the Liam Stocker trade, much of it unfavourable for Carlton and positive for Adelaide.
As a reminder, Carlton traded its 2019 first round pick, likely to be No. 1, for Adelaide’s 2019 first round pick, likely to be in the mid-teens, plus 2018’s Pick 19, which Carlton used to select Liam Stocker.
Most have suggested this is an obvious win for Adelaide. I think it’s worth questioning this. There’s a good chance Carlton wins its next premiership before Adelaide, in part because of the trade.
There are a few things to consider when assessing who will win or lose this trade. What is the value of the No. 1 pick? Is Carlton actually giving up the No. 1 pick? What type of career will Stocker have? What is the value of the additional pick Carlton will receive? Finally, what constitutes success in this trade?
First, the value of the No. 1 pick. Carlton has had five No. 1 picks in recent history: Marc Murphy, Bryce Gibbs, Matthew Kreuzer, Jacob Weitering and Sam Walsh. All have been or are likely to be very good players. Leaving Walsh aside, as his career is so young, it is worth noting that none have won a premiership or are considered the best in their draft cohort.
Marc Murphy (Adam Trafford/AFL Media/Getty Images)
Other clubs have arguably had less success than Carlton with their No. 1 picks. After Kreuzer in 2008 the No. 1 picks have been Jack Watts, Tom Scully, Andrew Swallow, Jonathon Patton, Lachlan Whitfield, Tom Boyd, Patrick McCartin, Jacob Weitering, Andrew McGrath, Cameron Rayner and Sam Walsh.
Some have had issues with injury and form. Some are too early to judge. Some are stars of the competition. It is a mixed bag. The No. 1 pick is a lot to give up, but history suggests it is not a definite superstar.
It is arguable Carlton is giving up a slightly higher pick. If it can win three or four more games, which appears possible after its win on the weekend against Brisbane, there is a chance Carlton is giving up only Pick 3 to Pick 5. Regardless, it is still a lot to give up.
But what is Carlton getting in return? The first half is Liam Stocker, who was Pick 19 last year.
Will the Stocker trade pay off? (Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
Stocker has played five games and looked solid playing in defence. He has averaged slightly more than eight kicks and five handballs per game, plus about 2.5 marks and two tackles. It is very early in his career but he looks composed and comfortable in the AFL. Certainly he is on track for a 19-year-old.
Everyone apart from Patrick Cripps in Carlton’s midfield is developing but Stocker looks like he’ll add some much-needed grunt. If he can be an inside midfielder supporting Cripps, he will complement the class of Sam Petrevski-Seton, the pace of Paddy Dow and Zac Fisher and the run of Walsh and Lochie O’Brien.
It is difficult to project this early into Stocker’s career, but based on what he’s done so far he should one day fill a need in Carlton’s midfield. He is unlikely to be as good as a No. 1 pick, but it is likely he will be a solid Carlton player.
The second half of the trade Carlton will receive is Adelaide’s first-round pick, which could be in the mid-teens.
Some of the best players in the competition, such as Patrick Dangerfield, Dustin Martin, Marcus Bontompelli, Scott Pendlebury and Scott Selwood, were top-ten picks. Some, like Nat Fyfe, Alex Rance, Jack Riewoldt and Carlton’s best player Cripps were taken in the teens.
It is possible Carlton will recruit someone as good as this year’s No. 1 with the pick it will receive from Adelaide, although it’s unlikely. There is a good chance a mid-teens pick will be a solid player for Carlton though. At this stage it is theoretical of course.
Some will measure the success of the trade on premierships. If Adelaide wins one with the pick Carlton gives it, Adelaide wins. If Carlton wins a premiership with Stocker and another decent player, Carlton wins. Premierships are what trades are designed to achieve, so it’s not unreasonable to look at it this way.
Based on the list Carlton has as a whole, it has at least as good a chance as Adelaide of winning a premiership during Stocker’s career. In Weitering, Harry McKay and Ed Curnow it has some quality talls, and the midfield described earlier has a lot of young talent.
Adelaide is in a different age bracket and has potentially a premiership-winning list already. It would want to win one in the next few years, though, before its most talented players begin to decline. If it does not win one soon, Carlton will quickly be in pole position to be the first of the two to add to its premiership list.
A final factor that is beneficial for Carlton from this trade is that every loss has really hurt the club this year. In past years being bottom has been tempered by the fact a No. 1 pick was coming. This year there is no perverse motivation to lose. Unfortunately the demand to win has not resulted in results, but the desire to win is being ingrained into the club, which can only be beneficial for culture long term.
The lazy analysis that Adelaide will clearly win the trade is worth questioning. Stocker has started his career well and, combined with whoever Carlton picks up this year with the selection it receives from Adelaide, he could be part of Carlton’s next premiership.
Jeremy
Guest
Looking pretty foolish now Steven
Steven
Guest
This is why Carlton have been a basket case for the last 15 years, dumb decisions time and time again defended and justified. What the article should say is "What the hell were they thinking!" and hold those in charge to account. But no, lets keep justifying their incompetence so the blue languish for the next decade or more.
User
Roar Rookie
Need to be in position to attract said players which Carlton haven't been in and don't say fasolo could answer their woes ever again Pete.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
I love Mayne, he has become one of my absolute favourites and Bucks recently said he is one of the first picked each week.
Jack
Guest
A bit bias but for me stocker looked like a top 10 Player . His a mid playing defends and hitting targets every where . Big kid too. Very impressed in his first 5 games, he will peak when a lot of his other high draft picks are peaking. Also it’s not stocker for number one it’s stocker and a mature player for proabaly pick 2-3 if we are honest
Fairsuckofthesav
Roar Rookie
Whether its draft pick 1 2 or 3 Crows win this trade this year. Given Crows recruiting team is one of the best that augurs well for them. Yes the Crows squad is aging but they are well placed to transition given their recent picks. The picks they have this year will help the process. As for who gets the first flag pure speculation. Crows window is the next 3 years the Blues much longer.
Aransan
Roar Rookie
I think Carlton would have been hoping that he had shown more than he has so far, but who knows how he will turn out. There aren't too many players who play many games in their first year, midfielders often have to be played on a forward or back flank for a couple of years until they develop their strength and endurance. I hope Stocker turns out well for Carlton, fortune favours the brave.
PeteB
Roar Rookie
Far to early to make the call that Stocker hasn’t turned out to be the player that Carlton were hoping for. Ridiculous comment.
Pope Paul VII
Roar Rookie
Such is Collingwood's promise of riches, they have to build barricades to keep players out. Mayne is my fave of that lot from seemingly finished, out of favour with the coach and Collies having wasted a small fortune, to better than he ever was before. I like Varcoe as a give it all type of player too. Mihocek is the bargain basement recruit of the millennium I reckon.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Bringing the right players into the club outside the draft definitely helps. Look at the players the Pies have brought in from other clubs. GWS: Hoskin-Elliott, Adams, Treloar Melbourne: Howe, Dunne Geelong: Varcoe Nth Melb: Wells, Greenwood Brisbane: Aish, Beams, Crisp Fremantle: Mayne Bulldogs: Roughead Sydney: Sam Murray (currently banned) USA: Cox VFL: Mihocek There’s 15 players in a starting 22 all from other clubs. Fair enough Wells and Murray are a bust but there’s some automatic picks in there, Crisp, Mayne, Howe, all three GWS players…even Mihocek has been a brilliant pick up.
Nolzie
Roar Rookie
Yeah I read the comment below after posting, my apologies..
Macca
Roar Rookie
Probably but as I have said, he is just an example. The point is the blues preference is trading their first pick for a high quality experienced player, like Coniglio.
Nolzie
Roar Rookie
Coniglio is not coming to a Victorian club.. If he leaves GWS and that is a gigantic IF he will go to either WCE or Fremantle.
Macca
Roar Rookie
Sammy - How so? I have explained how so numerous times. If we didn't do the trade we don't get Stocker, use our first round pick on Coniglio and keep our 2020 first rounder on whoever. Having done the trade however we do get Stocker, use our first round pick on Coniglio and our 2020 first round pick on Coniglio. If if we remover the common elements from both sides of the equation we see Stocker on one side and our 2020 first round pick on the other. As far as the Crows being ahead, we'll see. The blues win this weekend and it is likely they won't finish bottom 2 which changes things massively.
Francis Carter
Guest
no they are not haha
sammy
Guest
and Stocker costs us our 2020 second rounder. How so? - I make it that you get Stocker and Coniglio for our pick 19, 2019 1st and your 2020 1st with maybe a 2nd coming back. Had Carlton hung onto their 2019 1st and not traded with Adelaide, you don't get Stocker, but Carlton's 2019 1st (probably pick 1 or pick 2) gets you Coniglio (for the sake of this argument). You then get to use your 2020 1st which could also be a top 5 pick on an established player - like you said, you don't need more 18 year olds. I just think that Adelaide at this time are so far ahead on the trade based on pick positions and Carlton now have to nail their use of our pick to bring the trade back to parity
Macca
Roar Rookie
What if the blues get to 16th?
Macca
Roar Rookie
What is the average age of our starting midfield - we don't want another 18 year old mid. And let's just say pick 1 would have got the job done but instead we lose you pick (which you claim is "highly speculative") and our 2020 first rounder - we still get an elite mid (except they come with AFL experience and are proven) and Stocker costs us our 2020 second rounder.
Macca
Roar Rookie
LOB is tracking alright, was pretty good against the Lions. Bolton had him playing a really defensive role, Teague will let him go a bit more. As for pick 13 being more speculative – which of these picks is worth pick 1? Jack Watts, Tom Scully, Andrew Swallow, Jonathon Patton, Lachlan Whitfield, Tom Boyd, Patrick McCartin, Jacob Weitering, Andrew McGrath, Cameron Rayner and Sam Walsh.
Macca
Roar Rookie
13