Someday, Clarkson will coach a club that's not Hawthorn

Here’s a long-range prediction for you that hopefully I’ll be able to drag up in a few years’ time and make myself look smart: someday, Alastair Clarkson will coach an AFL club that isn’t Hawthorn.

On Monday former Hawthorn player Ben Dixon said he believed Clarkson would quit his position at the Hawks at the end of the year to take up a $2 million offer from Carlton.

This prompted Clarkson to deny – for what must be at least the fourth time this season – that he has any intention of coaching elsewhere next year.

Tom Scully, a recent recruit to the club, said Clarkson told his players on Tuesday that Dixon’s story was bogus.

“Clarko made a little reference to it this morning,” Scully said.

“He just said, ‘I’ll address the elephant in the room. I’m not going to Carlton’.

“As far as I’m concerned, Clarko’s the coach and until he says otherwise, there’s nothing really to see.”

It’s not the first time and won’t be the last. Over the years Clarkson has been linked to senior coaching vacancies time and time again, as well demonstrated by this tweet.

It’s the kind of story that inevitably leaves fans frustrated and disillusioned with the footy media. You can only spread the same rumour so many times before it becomes a bit tired.

But does that mean this is all smoke and no fire? Not a chance.

(Photo by Cameron Spencer/AFL Photos/via Getty Images)

If you want some factual pointing to this prediction, here it is: sooner or later, every premiership coach does it.

Since 1990, all but one of the AFL’s premiership coaches has gone on to coach at another AFL club – or already been at their second club, or is still coaching their first.

Leigh Matthews won the flag with Collingwood in 1990 and went on for three more at Brisbane. Alan Joyce took on Footscray.

Mick Malthouse moved on to Collingwood and then Carlton. Kevin Sheedy coached GWS. David Parkin was at his third club (and his second stint at Carlton).

Dennis Pagan went to Carlton. Malcolm Blight enjoyed a brief 15 games at St Kilda. Paul Roos took over at Melbourne. Mark Thompson and John Worsfold both coached Essendon.

The only exception to the rule is 2004 Port Adelaide premiership coach Mark Williams, and that’s not for lack of trying. He pushed hard to be Kevin Sheedy’s successor at GWS, and left the club with a year on his contract when Leon Cameron was picked instead.

1990 is just an arbitrary starting point for that statistic. This is a trend that extends back well into the decades beforehand, when senior coaching roles were more fluid, and to coach multiple clubs over a career was more common.

Clarkson is no different from any of them, expect for one thing: he’s not just a premiership coach, he’s a four-time premiership coach (okay, okay – that doesn’t make him any different from Kevin Sheedy).

In fact every premiership in the last six years has been won either by Clarkson himself, or one of Clarkson’s proteges – Luke Beveridge in 2016, Damien Hardwick in 2017, and Adam Simpson last year.

Three teams in this year’s top eight are run by coaches who formerly assisted Clarkson, and a fourth, Don Pyke, was ‘grandfathered’ by him – a protege of his protege, having worked under Simpson at West Coast.

I’m not saying it will be next year – I’m confident it won’t. Clarkson has been asked time and time again in 2019 and every time he has been completely unambiguous. He is committed to his contract at Hawthorn, and that’s not about to change.

But, someday, it will. Someday for one reason or another Clarkson will be on the market and when that happens, half the clubs in the league will be sounding him out (and that’s a conservative estimate).

The only question then left will be this: does he want it?

And even if it comes after taking a year or more away from the game, for me there’s no doubt. He’ll want another challenge, wherever it might be. Lock it in.