It took them a long time to catch on but teams at this World Cup have finally realised choosing to bat first is the most effective option.
Nearly two-thirds of the 34 completed matches in this tournament (up to yesterday) have been won by the team batting first. Further underlining the advantage of batting first is the fact there’s only been one successful chase of more than 250 in the whole tournament.
You didn’t expect that did you? You aren’t alone.
Quite bizarrely, the teams who won the toss opted to bat second in 17 out of the first 20 matches in this World Cup.
Since then there has been a dramatic turnaround in tactics, with only five of the last 14 toss winners opting to bat second.
The Cricket World Cup semis race is wide open. (Photo by Visionhaus/Getty Images)
Teams slowly have woken up to the fact that, amid the hefty pressure of a tournament, having to chase even a modest total is arduous.
Prior to the tournament there was a common narrative about how high scoring this World Cup may be, and that even totals of 350 might not be safe from chasers.
It is hard to pinpoint why there was such an obsession with wanting to bat second. One factor may be the influence of T20 cricket. It is now widely believed that batting second in a T20 allows a team to pace their innings with greater certainty.
That’s because, in an innings of just 20 overs, it is crucial to nail the tempo. By comparison, it is less important in an ODI. That is particularly so if there is pressure or batting conditions which are less than favourable.
Chasing 350 on a road in a largely meaningless bi-lateral series is easier than hunting 250 under tournament scrutiny on a pitch giving reasonable assistance to the bowlers.
A second factor contributing to the obsession with batting second may be the English conditions. When teams are doing the toss just after 10am in the morning, amid chilly temperatures and often overcast weather, it must be easy to get sucked in to the idea of bowling first.
In the knockout stages, however, I will be very surprised if any team chooses to chase unless, that is, the pitch looks like a green mamba.
What is pertinent to all of this is what has happened in the matches between the five teams vying most strongly to make the semi-finals.
The team batting first has dominated those games in this tournament, winning seven of the eight matches that have involved two out of Australia, India, New Zealand, Pakistan and England.
What’s more, batting first should only become more valuable in the knockout stages. The pressure of facing elimination from the tournament is particularly suffocating for the team that’s chasing. Runs on the board is the ultimate currency.
Australia have been playing with this in mind for some time. During Australia’s scorching run of 15 wins from their past 16 ODIs, they surprisingly have won the toss only four times and on each occasion they chose to bat first.
Their solitary loss in that time came while batting second, and 11 of those wins came while batting first.
Australia are old-school. They like the surety of batting first. This was conventional wisdom for most of ODI history – win the toss, bat first. Scoreboard pressure was treasured. It is only recently this notion was flipped.
Australia ignored the trend and kept batting first, kept taking their time, and kept aiming to explode later. It didn’t always work until it started to always work. Bat first to win this World Cup.
Paul
Roar Guru
ditto in mine!
Spanner
Roar Rookie
Very good point Loco - we havent been able to achieve this in the current campaign and no skipper is going to give the other team first hit in the finals !
Spanner
Roar Rookie
Yeah Paul- I dont think I had that much luck in my very modest opening career !
IndianCricketFan
Guest
With the pitches becoming more high scoring due to the impact of the rains reducing, the advantage of winning the toss and batting first has become even more pronounced. This was especially visible in both the Eng v Ind and Ind v Ban matches at Edgbaston where the pitch was much easier to bat on to begin with but got slow and sluggish as the match progressed. I daresay such pitches are not very fair in a LOI game skewing the advantage very much in favour of the team winning the toss. Its almost as if the flipping of a coin is going to decide this World Cup
Paul
Roar Guru
Think what a magnificent achievement it would be if we do win the Cup, supposedly with 9 players,especially if we beat a full strength England XI!! It's funny, the English were saying Australia didn't deserve to win the World Cup final in 1987. Can you remind me of that result please, McBumble? "the sneaker that fit's the foot". Is that a common expression in your country? I've never heard that before.
Paul
Roar Guru
I totally agree Spanner, the opening batsmen SHOULD be challenged by the opening spell and if they're good enough & lucky enough to survive, they get to cash in. To say the English opening pair had no trouble though??
Jeff
Roar Rookie
It was what Boult said Chris a couple of weeks back.
DaveJ
Roar Rookie
They included it but I’ve excluded it from games involving minnows, which I realise is a bit unfair given it was England being chased down.
bobbo7
Guest
If NZ win the toss and bat I reckon they will win. I also think that unless the pitches are 100 over consistent roads in the finals, the team batting first has a massive advantage .
Spanner
Roar Rookie
Ha ha - I'm with you Paul - but that is what the openers would have expected. Not many big opening partnerships in any form of cricket have been without a play and a miss and a couple of French cuts !
Spanner
Roar Rookie
Pressure ! - what a magnificent intangible that highlights why we love our sport !
Chris Kettlewell
Roar Guru
Not sure what you mean about "Boult seems to think he is getting swing". I've watched matches and clearly seen swing, both old and new ball. I thought it was interesting watching the Australia v Pakistan match and hearing the commentators talking about how there hadn't been any swing, despite clear ball tracking graphics showing Amir pitching multiple balls in the same place and some swinging in to the stumps while others continue on to be well wide of the stumps. There seems to be some people in denial, but there's definitely been swing around.
Paul
Roar Guru
Roy and Bairstow had no trouble? Okaaaay?
Neel
Roar Guru
Definitely to what most people thought. The contest between bat and ball has been a highlight of this tournament.
Pumping Dougie
Roar Guru
Great article as usual Ronan. Cheers.
CubRoar
Roar Rookie
I'm quite sure that Tendulkar predicted as much while he was commentating at the start of the Eng/Ind match. Roy and Bairstow had no trouble, Sharma certainly did.
matth
Roar Guru
Hopefully they didn’t exclude the time Ireland chased England down
matth
Roar Guru
I’d love England to have to chase. It will really show their mettle under pressure
El Loco
Roar Rookie
Could be smart for Australia to choose to chase against South Africa if they win the toss. It'd be worth testing themselves in a situation where the result isn't critical.
Republican
Guest
.......as already stated 'always', perhaps not as much Ibn Cricket as other sports but then Cricket is our apparent 'national sport' unlike in NZ, so no excuses if they even come close to us. There is no other nation on the planet that pushes Australia in most sports et el. They are our most dangerous adversaries, to be sure, while your dismissive attitude typifies our lack of respect for their zeal when pitted against us and as such, our Achilles heel of denial......