The good news about the Wallabies’ challenge for the 2019 Rugby World Cup is that the selectors have given Michael Cheika a squad that represents the best rugby talent available to play for Australia right now.
The bad news is that this talent is essentially lacklustre. There is not one player in the squad who would walk into any of the top sides competing in the tournament.
The only world-class player in Australian rugby in the last few years, in terms of being a probable choice for virtually every national rugby side, was Israel Folau.
Rugby Australia has shot the Wallabies in the heart and legs with their campaign to ensure that Folau never plays for the Wallabies again.
The effect of this loss can be gauged from a consideration of the Bob Dwyer Rule.
The 1991 World Cup-winning Wallabies coach posited that to win a Rugby World Cup title a side needed about five of world-class status, about ten or more players who are good Wallabies and a couple of dependable journeymen players who, like Bob Egerton in ’91, covered up the weaknesses of their more brilliant fellow players.
There is no world-class player currently available to Cheika. And this includes David Pocock, who may or may not even be available for the tournament.
There are, though, a number of players who could be good Wallabies if given the chance. And a team of good Wallabies, shrewdly selected and brilliantly coached, could mount a strong Rugby World Cup challenge.
The problem in the last few years has been that the selection and coaching of the Wallabies has been poor.
So when the new selectors, Scott Johnson and Michael O’Connor, sat down with the former sole selector, Michael Cheika, it was clear to them and everyone in Australian rugby aside from Cheika that new personnel had to be introduced into the Wallabies’ starting side.
And with their squad, the selectors have given Cheika the chance to develop a much stronger side by passing over “longtime favourites”, to quote Georgina Robinson, and embracing “the new balance of power” based around the successful Brumbies “to resuscitate Australia’s Test fortunes in an all-important World Cup year”.
So out with Wallabies Nick Phipps, Ned Hanigan, Quade Cooper and in with the Brumbies’ Joe Powell and Rob Valetini, and the Rebels’ Luke Jones.
(AP Photo/Peter Morrison)
Cheika was honest enough to concede that the process of having two other selectors meant that “we’ve come up with a better outcome for that than maybe if I was picking it by myself”.
I would’ve said ‘Amen to that’, if quoting the Bible is still allowed in a rugby context.
Last week, The Roar published a possible starting side that showed a promising and potentially very strong side was available for the first Test against the Springboks if the selectors followed through with their search for a new, improved Wallabies team for 2019.
There was strong support for the Brumbies front row of Allan Alaalatoa, Scott Sio and Folau Fainga’a.
My only question mark here was Fainga’a’s throwing yips in the Super Rugby semi-final.
The second-rowers with the most votes were Rory Arnold and Izack Rodda. These two are obvious starters and with the abrasive front-row picks create a strong tight five.
Eighty-four per cent of voters supported Isi Naisarani at No.8, 81 per cent voted for Michael Hooper at open-side flanker and 34 per cent for Luke Jones at blind-side flanker.
Three other possibilities, all on about 27 per cent, were Jack Dempsey, Rob Valetini and Lukhan Salakaia-Loto.
The stand-out in this group is Salakaia-Loto. I would have him in the starting side to give the Wallabies a real physical presence in the back row to complement the power, size and strength of the front five.
The point here is the Wallabies need as many X-factor players – even if right now they are only a small x – as they can field to give them a point of difference and power against the top sides.
The Roar readers showed a much better realisation than Michael Cheika in the past with their selected backline: Will Genia, Christian Lealiifano, Marika Koroibete, Samu Kerevi, Tevita Kuridrani, Jack Maddocks and Tom Banks.
What I like about this backline is that it has pace (yes, even Kuridrani when he winds up). Players like Dane Haylett-Petty – a good, physical runner and tackler but without much pace – have a limited future in international rugby.
This side, with Lealiifano in the starting XV, also has a ready-made captain to take over from Michael Hooper if the selectors believe that Liam Wright’s height and size offers a better open-side prospect to Hooper, a player who is becoming more of Pocock-type defensive player than an attacking option.
And in the next few weeks, Cheika and new attack coach Shaun Berne could find that James O’Connor, who has played inside centre for a year or so for Sale, might be the versatile, multi-skilled, strong-running No.10 the Wallabies have been searching for.
I know that O’Connor has been, as the media suggests, a former bad boy, with fines for using cocaine in 2017 being his last disgrace. But he apparently turned around his life in the last two years at Sale.
The rugby community, especially the rugby writers, should understand that there needs to be a redemptive aspect to the rugby culture. Players who show maturity and humility in turning their life around should be given the chance to do so.
There is a lot of talk about the duty of care a player owes the game. And this is right. But the game itself, which legitimises violence on the field, should also show a duty of care to players who have clearly reformed their behaviour on and off the field.
Michael Cheika, too, has rightly decided to go for broke in his Rugby World Cup campaign by trying to win all the Tests leading up to the tournament, including next weekend’s tough fixture against the Springboks at Ellis Park.
So unlike Steve Hansen with the All Blacks and Rassie Erasmus with the Springboks, the full Wallabies squad, including the injured David Pocock, have travelled to South Africa.
(Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
Alan Jones suggests the total cost of the squad’s two weeks in South Africa is about $1 million.
Cheika’s rationale for this million-dollar going-for-broke policy takes into account the fact that the Wallabies had their worst ever Test season in 2018 and that wins now are crucial for their Rugby World Cup hopes.
“To come from way back you’ve got to build momentum and belief in yourselves on the way. I think that’s really important,” Cheika said. “We’ve just got to help them get the good performances under their belt and win some Test matches along the way and build some momentum.”
The fortunes of the Wallabies, literally and metaphorically, are at stake at Ellis Park, a past fortress of the Springboks, on Saturday night.
Bring it on!
Rob
Guest
Wow!!! What a waste of 10mins.... this is the reality of rugby, our discourse is much more negative than the state of the sport and the wallabies in general. Why? what this country needs is positivity in rugby and all of our pundits, the ones supposed to big the game up, talk crap non stop!! Every hear a rugby league commentator talk crap about the kangaroos or the sport? No they understand they have an Assett to protect. These negative pundits are destroying the game much more than poor coaching or a supposed lack of talent ever will.
Gary
Guest
Yep , no one is wrong on everything , however Jones is mostly wrong on the important things.
stu
Guest
IF was lazy. Never could properly pass or kick. I'm happy the loafer is gone. The wallabies will be better with him gone.
Gary Russell-Sharam
Roar Rookie
The only thing I can say about this article is that there will be lots of conjecture re the side to be named, that's a given. One aspect of this article that I really can not abide is the statement that Israel Folua was the only player worthy of a spot in any other international side. What poppycock !!!! Israel Folua was a good player but nowhere near to being a great player. There is mass hysteria about him as a player. His ability was limited to leaping for the ball and running to finish off a try. All other aspects of a fullback's job where missing, like positioning for defence, passing NOT, Kicking for the line or territory, I've just named a few. Experts could name a few more. So when people make these assertions re Folua I wonder if they really know what a good fullback is supposed to do on the rugby pitch. Try remembering Roger Gould for a millisecond or Chris Latham they were great fullbacks. Folua was not in their class at any time that he played in his entire career. So stop the raving about how good Folua was, In my mind and quite a few others he was entirely over rated and entirely over paid. He was good but certainly not great.
Waxhead
Roar Rookie
@In brief No they just think you're nuts. No one's interested in your delusions and psych problems. Go away and consult your doctor.
In brief
Guest
We have already established that quoting of the bible is a sackable offence- and that it is a text which is offensive to the LGBTIQQ + community. Therefore, a priori, any biblical reference, including amen, must also be offensive too given its association with the 'bad' book.
In brief
Guest
You must be delusional- our best player was literally sacked for quoting the bible - no more- no less- and you say no one has an issue with the bible? Well clearly rugby Australia and their sugar daddy Alan Jocye do. Folau won't be ancient history when the current team of nobodies crash and burn at the World Cup. The rest of the world must think we are nuts..
Jimbo81
Guest
that team is an absolute shambles! The Roar team would probably win against the Boks. One day I want to see Jordan Ulese and Tupou on the field at the same time. Shake and bake. If any side is selected without Arnold to disrupt the lineout drive = suicide.
numpty
Roar Rookie
Ok so we agree he plays in the wide channels. Now, do you understand that is where he is meant to be? Because you seem to use it as a negative pt against him...
Malotru
Roar Rookie
“we’ve come up with a better outcome for that than maybe if I was picking it by myself” Michael Cheika. The interesting words are 'than maybe' , suggests to me Cheika thinks he is still smarter than the collective.
Ken Catchpole's Other Leg
Roar Guru
Gloria, there are posters who give excuse for your observation but Diehard here is not one of them, imo. It is an interesting clash of cultures when you look at cricket and rugby between the two countries. One of the reasons I lost interest in cricket was the bombastic fan base we used to have here. The Oi oi oi’s. etc. As an Oz rugby fan I would be brought to task repeatedly on rugby forums for Oz cricket fan behaviour. It’s still happening in the occasional Hadlee/Quade comparison. It’s bloody annoying but when you fish you run the risk of red herrings. Rugby fans here suffer a structural humility. Our team’s success culture is just not that good. The Black Caps are a fair comparison I think, in that they punch about their weight on occasions (as they just have). I think that some of the Wallaby fan base gets confused when we have a lucky tournament. They seem to forget that it’s not cricket.
Mocko
Guest
Our super sides are on a downward spiralling trajectory but it is all Cheika fault for the impending wallaby losses in 2019 as well as removing our only strike weapon over a minor tweet . We need new blood ASAP. The 2019 campaign is over so just throw the u21s in, get them ready for 2023. Get rid of the dead wood.
stillmissit
Roar Guru
numpty: A Im not asking you and B if you think that medals and 2nd in world player over 4 years ago is fine then you and I are not seeing the same player. If he was 70% george smith then OK
Rhino11
Roar Rookie
Let’s give JOC a run at 13. Perfect to run of Kerevi & provide the subtlety that Kuridrani doesnt
terrykidd
Roar Pro
In my opinion this is the match day 23 for Saturday's test against the Boks ..... it is not the team I would choose: Sio, Fa'ainga, Alaalatoa, Rodda, Arnold, LSL, Hooper, Naisarani Genia, Foley Kerevi, Kurindrani Koroibete, Beale, Banks Slipper, Kepu, Uluese, Simmons, Dempsey, Wright, White, CLL if a 6:2 split Slipper, Kepu, Uluese, Simmons, Dempsey, White, CLL, Hodge if a 5:3 split.
Tooly
Roar Rookie
Well done again Spiro. A lot of un - recognised mediocrity and not much talent above Australian provincial level. I’m not sure how you build momentum when going downhill, perhaps he’s installed the inertia recoil system Audie use in their cars. Certainly a test this week against the SA seconds. A loss for us would just be more of the same old Mouse Club.
Timbo (L)
Roar Guru
Thanks for the link to the article. I had not considered this scenario. To my knowledge, elite men’s rugby has no openly gay players. Nigel forges the path for Ref’s Move to elite women’s team sports and the statistics invert, with a disproportionate number of gay women representing us at the top level. It remidned me of a colleague of mine. His wife is a former Olympian and he said that his plan to bond with other partners over a frothy beverage whilst tending the team BBQ did not go as expected, his new friends were predominately women, unsurprising with unofficial number of gay partners well over 50% . Show up with Folau’s or Jaelene Hinkle’s bronze age nonsense and the dynamic changes, no need for Raelene Castle to get involved, The rates of training mishaps jump significantly with Hockey, Cricket and Rugby providing endless “teaching” opportunities. I am not advocating for violence but when you start insulting your team mates life choices, the tackles get a little bit harder, the deliveries a little bit faster, the swings a little more wayward. The problem is self correcting.
terrykidd
Roar Pro
"Will Genia, Christian Lealiifano, Marika Koroibete, Samu Kerevi, Tevita Kuridrani, Jack Maddocks and Tom Banks. What I like about this backline is that it has pace (yes, even Kuridrani when he winds up). " Yes this backline does have some pace but what it lacks is defence on the flanks and a sniping halfback. Genia no longer snipes, in other words defences do not have to worry about him, and his kicking game is now awful. Koroibete often makes very poor defensive reads, coming in when it is not necessary. Maddocks just does not do defence. If attacking teams go wide then this backline is in trouble.
Timbo (L)
Roar Guru
Rugby is a 15 (23) man game and has Both attack and Defense. If you are performing 100% in 1/2 your roles and 50% in the other 1/2 it makes you a 75% player. I will take an 85% player in all of their roles over a show pony any day. There is a pretty big difference between political correctness and discrimination Especially after ignoring warnings from your employer..
Train Without A Station
Roar Guru
Yes. One of the top performers from Opta stats. He was top player in Super Rugby for tackles leading to turnovers. In addition he was 7th for turnovers won. Only 3 7s across the competition won more than him. 5/8 pressure - well if the basis is if you haven't seen it apparently it doesn't exist then clearly this is pointless as you only see what you want. Pressuring the first receiver is the point. support runner - so because the Wallabies aren't good at it in the context of a whole team, it's not possible for one player to be? Taking the ball up - Why? Probably because the other players aren't there to. If you think he is as good as Ardie Savia or any 7 in the top 6 teams Which of those players you are referencing is currently available for the Wallabies? Because if they aren't, it's pointless. He only needs to be the best 7 in Aus to be the best option. He is no George Smith, Sean McMahon, Liam Gill or even a Matt Hodgson Guess 3 coaches got it wrong. Smith and Hodgson aren't playing so what relevance are they? McMahon is inferior at the breakdown and seldom wins pilfers. The fact you propose him shows how ill informed your opinion is. In fact McMahon still plays 8 too. As for Gill. He's great at some things. Also known for brain explosions. Probably why 3 Wallaby coaches had him behind Hooper. How many games have you watched Gill play in France?