Modern cricket is increasingly a data-driven domain. Right now, England and Australia’s analysts are pouring over dossiers that will help it exploit the other ahead of the upcoming Ashes.
Stats, pitch maps, beehives and interception points are being picked apart to best open up cracks in the opposition.
But the freshest and perhaps the most damning piece of evidence against Australia – one that adds to an already large sample size – again fell into English laps in the last couple of days. In losing 17 wickets on the opening day of an intra-squad match in Hampshire, Australia showed their swing-induced deficiencies are still very apparent (England, as it turns out, showed theirs too against Ireland last night).
Conditions appeared tough for batting at The Rose Bowl, and several players were having their first competitive innings against the Dukes ball after an extended period against the white Kookaburra. But this provides little solace given the first Test starts in a week.
Much as it would like to, Australia’s years-long struggle against the moving ball means it isn’t in the position to dismiss the day one in Hampshire as a mere anomaly.
The events of Tuesday afternoon quite rightly shouldn’t be dwelled on given the impending series, but for those on the outside it shines a light on the biggest flaw in either side this Ashes series.
While England’s top order issues against the moving ball were also exposed against Ireland overnight, for Australia it has been a far longer battle.
Certain performances in the last few years suggest the Aussies have improved on its ability to play spin in foreign conditions, but little suggests they have improved against seam and swing.
The last two Ashes series in England the Aussies have feebly fallen to the moving Dukes, and a big question remains whether enough has changed since 2015.
Don’t let the revisionists tell you that that series, where Australia lost 3-2, was close. The Aussies bullied England on a flat Lord’s surface and saved further blushes at The Oval to peg a Test back when it was all over.
But at Edgbaston and especially Trent Bridge it was brutally exposed as a side who are quickly out of answers when the ball is moving in the air and off the surface. Last year’s tour of South Africa, where Vernon Philander and Kagiso Rabada combined for 39 wickets, was further proof.
Australia were troubled by the moving ball in the last away Ashes series. (AAP Image/Dave Hunt)
For four years the memory of Trent Bridge has stuck firmly the the front of Australian cricket’s mind. Bowled out for 60 on the first morning, its Ashes campaign was essentially ended in a session thanks to Stuart Broad.
But could history repeat itself? While it might not be skittled again for 60, a sub-100 score remains a distinct possibility. Australia’s top-six in that Test match (Chris Rogers, Dave Warner, Steve Smith, Shaun Marsh, Michael Clarke and Adam Voges) was arguably better equipped than the one it will field next Thursday.
Rogers, one of Australia’s most prolific players in England, said England’s bowlers would especially target Australia’s left-handers around the wicket.
“If they don’t know now that all of the England bowlers will come around the wicket, angle it in and swing it away, then they haven’t done their research,” he said in a recent News Corp interview.
“You want to have a neutral method that can counter that. If you over-commit to a certain way, if you are committing to Jimmy Anderson’s out-swinger you are going to get your pads blown off. You make smaller movements and you try and play later. You have to accept you are going to be in trouble a lot of the time.”
Australia’s best chance of winning, quite obviously, rests on the shoulders of its bowlers. That is, relying on their accomplished quicks to make inroads even when the batting card has let them down.
Unlike the batsmen, there appears little for Justin Langer to worry about on this front with a host of players seemingly up to the task. It appears only one of Peter Siddle, Jackson Bird or Michael Neser will be selected if they stay true to their word and select five pacemen. Common wisdom suggests Pat Cummins, Mitchell Starc, James Pattinson and Josh Hazlewood will be the other four.
Tim Murtagh’s five-wicket haul for Ireland overnight is further proof Australia doesn’t require express pace to blow the home side away.
Siddle or Bird, 10-15km/h slower than the others, could feasibly feature as key members of the squad if selected. A low-scoring Ashes looms and if that eventuates, we’re set for a beauty.
Doctor Rotcod
Roar Rookie
Bancroft and Marsh going along quite steadily against the Test line-up. Bancroft up to 7
3.9 The GH 12 look likely nowCari
Roar Rookie
Reading the comments here I feel we are getting rather mixed with seam and swing. The amount the ball will swing is due more to the atmosphere than the pitch, the ball itself will play a part too. Excessive swing and early swing, a foot or more, is easier for a good batsman to cope with and it’s harder for the bowler to control. The killer is late swing of no more the three-quarters of the width of a bat. When you add to that the skill of the bowler to be able to swing the ball both ways, Andersen for example, then any batsman will struggle.
DaveJ
Roar Rookie
Was it swing or just seam that did the damage in this match? Hard to tell without actually seeing the match. Siddle and Cummins who took a lot of wickets in one innings don’t swing it much. On the other hand, Pattinson and Marsh who took most in the latest innings, can swing it a bit. Agree with David’s point, nut bet they don’t do it. Starc wasn’t that impressive with the new ball in the WC despite all the wickets later in innings - was rather inconsistent at times.
Jeff
Roar Rookie
Ok thanks. That makes sense in conjunction with the article below. How bizarre that they only "realised" at the start of the domestic season that they didn't have enough balls available to get through the summer. Who on earth is in charge of this stuff? https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cricket/2019/05/08/england-order-new-batch-dukes-balls-bigger-seam-test-australian/
David Schout
Expert
I believe they used a new ball (with a less pronounced seam) at the start of this county season to make life easier for batters. But once they saw that bowlers were struggling to garner as much movement (sort of obvious, no?) they ordered a batch of the previous balls for the Ashes
Jeff
Roar Rookie
Oh really? How long had they been using "the other one"?
David Schout
Expert
It's actually just a return to the old ball, rather than a new one
Captain Cranky
Guest
Yeah, and Slater should have known better given that his long-term opening partner was none other than Tubby Taylor, (in)famous for his playing and missing. After a while, we came to realise that Tubby wasn't actually 'lucky' after all: it's a skill to avoid getting yourself out, especially in tough conditions against a moving new ball. He also had an amazing temperament, and simply focused on the next ball. During Taylor's infamous poor run in '96/'97, he was often getting the edges rather than playing and missing, so Slater is a dill. Batting without ego is something Aussie batsmen have lacked in recent years, certainly since the likes of Taylor, Border and Steve Waugh. Chris Rogers was refreshingly of this mouldl, and hopefully Renshaw gets his career back on track.
Jeff
Roar Rookie
Yes and apparently they are using newer Dukes with raised seams?
Morsie
Guest
Looks like the poms aren't much chop against a laterally moving ball either.
Mika
Roar Rookie
Well, our batting is what it is. Warner has changed and this is the series of his career. No doubt he desperately wants to deliver in an away Ashes. I think he'll put in at least one or two substantial innings. God knows with the rest of them. Head in England? Pffft. Hopefully Uzi is fit and confident, and Smith is near his best... I think the bowling is what the selectors can control. And unless a hard, dry pitch is served, I don't see Starc playing. Or Hazelwood for that matter. I think Cummins, Pattinson, Siddle and Lyon is a formidable, Ashes-winning attack.
David Schout
Expert
Haha apologies! All fair points that you've expanded on there, btw. As a broader point I think if both teams are struggling with the Dukes it's bound to be a great series from a viewer perspective. Far more so than the 2017/18 series - the Melbourne and Sydney tests were drab.
Jeff
Roar Rookie
Bancroft is also very patient with a good defence, though can up his attacking play once conditions suit. 8, 28, 36, 109, 77, 92*, 158, 5 in his last four Division 1 County matches since late June as Durham captain indicates he’s in reasonable form.
The Bush
Roar Guru
Khawaja's soft hands is what has seen him succeed on green tops in Australia in domestic cricket. As long as the selectors don't select Mitchell "Hard Hands" Marsh, I can cop just about anything else.
Jeff
Roar Rookie
What's "reductionist"? I'm outta here.
Jeff
Roar Rookie
It was the hard hands and bottom hand play of England that caused them so many problems also.
Paul
Roar Guru
Geez, David a word like "reductionist" in The Roar?? I don't disagree about our struggles but I don't think we're on our Pat Malone. England alone have made 3 scores under 100 in what, 12 months and all can about where there was movement. It's clear from Test averages the quality of pitches have become biased towards batting and there are few occasions when the ball does a lot. As a consequence, batsmen are more used to hitting through the ball, rather than letting it come to them, much in the way short form cricketers go about their batting. The guys who have prospered in these sorts of conditions have shown great patience which was a far more common place trait prior to short form cricket becoming as popular as it currently is. This is not the issue on it's own but is a factor in how guys don't/can't play the moving ball.
Jeffrey Dun
Roar Rookie
"Paul, that’s what I really liked about Renshaw – he left a lot and seemed to in that mould of a player who knew how to survive." I agree about Renshaw. When you say he knew how to survive, I recall his maiden test innings at Adelaide under lights on a pitch that was nipping around. He played and missed innumerable times. The commentators such as Slater (whom I don't rate as a commentator) remarked how lucky he was. It struck me that it wasn't just luck. Renshaw's method was to play the line of the ball, and if it moved late, he didn't adjust his shot. In other words, if he saw it go late, he didn't try to hit it, which is unusual for an Australian batsmen. As Paul notes above, modern batsmen like to feel bat on ball - "see the ball, hit the ball". After the last Ashes series in England, a senior cricket journalist for the SMH (can't remember which) wrote an interesting article comparing the number of times the Australian and England batsmen played and missed at Trent Bridge. The England batsmen played and missed a huge number of times. By comparison, the Australian batsmen played and missed rarely, they simply nicked off. The journo concluded that luck was not with the Australians. I'm not convinced luck had much to do with it. I think it is a reflection of the approach the England batsmen adopted to survive on that pitch. Just like Renshaw, they covered the line for the ball and didn't adjust their shot if the ball moved late. It must be difficult for a generation of Austalian batsmen raised with the mantra "see the ball, hit the ball" to not follow the ball when it moves late. I hope they can work out a method to survive on a seaming pitch - Ashes success will depend on it.
Insult_2_Injury
Roar Rookie
Technique and softer hands than are used in slogball. The Aussie training squad woulda had a twenty run first innings lead if their Irish Test is anything to judge by. This summer in England has already demonstrated that bowlers have a part in the game still. Time to see who still has a batting technique. Hope Khawaja is fit soon.
The Bush
Roar Guru
Paul, that's what I really liked about Renshaw - he left a lot and seemed to in that mould of a player who knew how to survive. I really hope he finds his mojo again and can return for Australia, as right now none of our openers really fill me with confidence.