The Roar's AFL expert tips and predictions: Round 21

With just three weeks to go in the home-and-away season, The Roar’s AFL expert tipping ladder has a new leader!

We’ve got one hell of a race to the finish line coming up, with back-to-back eight-point weeks from Marnie Cohen seeing her leap into first place over AdelaideDocker, who’s been in first since Round 1.

His score of five sees him fall back to second by one point, with myself in third just one point behind him.

In the interests of not having my salary slashed again, I am prohibited from making comment on Daniel Jeffrey’s standing.

In the actual world of football itself, there are some very juicy matches in Round 21 with finals implications. Essendon versus the Western Bulldogs on Saturday night and St Kilda versus Fremantle on Sunday are the picks of the bunch, but there are games elsewhere still worth keeping an eye on too.

Stirling Coates
GWS Giants, Collingwood, Port Adelaide, Brisbane, Western Bulldogs, Geelong, St Kilda, Richmond, West Coast

There’s a very real chance of snow descending on UNSW Canberra Oval when the Giants and Hawks clash on Friday night. I’m not even sure Clarko has a plan for those conditions.

With finals now out of the question, Hawthorn will be using the last three weeks to work out who’ll be on the list in 2020 and that leads me to giving GWS the nod. The Hawks have never beaten the Giants away either, which helps.

Saturday night’s Bombers-Bulldogs blockbuster is probably the hardest tip of the round. Essendon looked appalling against the Power on Saturday and, when you look at how lucky they were in the wins beforehand, it may not have been an aberration.

Their record against the Dogs – who were much closer to defeating Brisbane last week than the score suggests – is also quite poor, so I’m going to back Luke Beveridge’s men to add another sachet of spice to the final mix.

Can Aaron Naughton and the Bulldogs get right back in the mix? (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos/Getty Images)

The other perplexing matchup is the Sunday clash between St Kilda and Fremantle. The Dockers looked horrible until doing a number on the Cats last week, while the Saints have put together a decent three weeks under Brett Ratten.

This one could genuinely go either way, but I’m backing the Saints in due to Freo’s very poor record at Marvel Stadium.

The rest of the week looks (fingers crossed) relatively straightforward. Melbourne will put in a good first half against the Pies before falling away to their significantly fitter opponents.

There’s been no point examining the Demons closely this season due to how bad they’ve been, but poor second halves has been a big recent trend that would worry Simon Goodwin.

Sydney have been desperately unlucky to lose five in a row and could really give Port Adelaide a scare given their superb record in South Australia. The Swans are going full youth over the last three weeks, however, so the Power should get the job done.

Brisbane will rewrite the QClash record books with a thumping win over Gold Coast. It’s amazing to think that this year will be the first in the fixture history where either side will make the eight.

Geelong should bounce back at home against North Melbourne, although I’d be picking the Kangaroos at any other venue.

Sunday’s other games should see Richmond and West Coast comfortably account for Carlton and Adelaide, respectively.

There are a couple of ‘almosts’ for the Shoe-In of the Week. I don’t trust Collingwood enough to give them the nod over Melbourne, while Adelaide are probably too high up the ladder to pick against them. Let’s go with the Brisbane Lions.

Marnie Cohen
GWS Giants, Collingwood, Port Adelaide, Brisbane, Western Bulldogs, Geelong, St Kilda, Richmond, West Coast

We have reached the final three rounds of the season and the competition is still so even that I cannot submit my tips without second-guessing myself.

I hope Port Adelaide’s big win last weekend hasn’t given their fans false hope about a 2019 finals appearance. Of the sides left in the running for a finals spot, Port appear to have the easiest run and best form of the bunch

But anyone that knows Port know they don’t deliver when they should and surprise us when we give them no chance.

They’ll start favourites against Sydney and, hopefully, they can back up last weekend’s top-notch performance and push themselves closer to finals contention.

Is Saturday’s game against the Swans a banana peel for Port? (AAP Image/Ben Macmahon)

On the receiving end of that ten-goal loss to Port Adelaide was Essendon, who will be eager to secure a finals spot. A win would just about do it, but it won’t come easy as the Bulldogs are also making a last-ditch effort to grab a spot in the eight.

The Dogs also defeated Port a few weeks ago in Adelaide and, too, will be looking to rebound after a loss to Brisbane last weekend. It promises to be an exciting contest but I’ve got the Doggies.. just.

Things are just as hot at the top of the eight as they are in the bottom, with Geelong, Brisbane and West Coast all eager to secure big home finals. I expect all three to win, but the real battle could be between West Coast and the Lions, who are fighting it out for second spot on the ladder and a home final.

I don’t really trust St Kilda or Freo but I’ll tip the Saints at home.

It’s expected to be a freezing cold Friday night in Canberra so if Alastair Clarkson lets his men wear long-sleeve jumpers it’ll be a victory for the Hawks in itself. But I’ve got the Giants notching up four points.

Collingwood and Richmond should be too strong for Melbourne and Carlton.

Daniel Jeffrey
GWS Giants, Collingwood, Port Adelaide, Brisbane, Western Bulldogs, Geelong, Fremantle, Richmond, West Coast

I was only ten points off what I thought I’d get last week. No matter, we’ll aim for 16 this round.

The Giants should have no problem handling the Hawks on Friday night. Their record against Hawthorn at home is very good, and some of the visiting players could freeze in the Canberra weather without a long sleeve jersey to call on.

I’d not be shocked if the Magpies fell in a heap against Melbourne – what is a win against Gold Coast really worth right now, anyway? – but the Demons have made falling in a heap their speciality this season. Collingwood, but in a close one.

Sydney have been playing well recently, particularly for such a young team. They could spring an upset against the Power – and their record in Adelaide is quite good – but with a finals spot on the line and a good win under their belts from last week, I’ll take Port.

Brisbane will beat Gold Coast. That is all.

Given each side’s recent form, the two Saturday night games could quite feasibly go either way. Home ground advantage should give Geelong the edge over North, while the Bulldogs running the Lions relatively close last week shows they have what it takes to beat the Bombers.

The Dockers, after seeming so thoroughly buried a few weeks ago, look a genuine finals chance now. They’ll need a win against the Saints, but after their attack clicked against Geelong that’s entirely possible.

The final two matches of the round appear straightforward. Good form or not, Carlton won’t be able to top a Richmond side peaking at just the right time. As for Adelaide, beating St Kilda at home is hardly enough to suggest they’re capable of a win away to West Coast.

AdelaideDocker
GWS Giants, Collingwood, Port Adelaide, Brisbane, Essendon, Geelong, St Kilda, Richmond, West Coast

I’ve relinquished my tipping lead off the back of a comparatively dreadful tipping week. So, let’s see how this week goes.

Let’s start with the easy(ish) games to tip. I’d place just three of the weekend’s clashes in that category – Saturday’s QClash match-up – which should see Brisbane comfortably account for their lesser Queensland counterparts in the Suns – while Sunday’s Richmond-Carlton and West Coast-Adelaide clashes should see the hosts win without too much trouble, although the latter game might be close, with Adelaide desperate to secure their position in the eight.

Friday’s Giants-Hawthorn clash isn’t too hard a tip – but might be closer than you’d expect. The Giants are a good shout at a top-four spot if things head their way, but while Hawthorn won’t be playing finals, they’re still a genuinely dangerous opponent. The Giants should win this one though.

Jeremy Cameron and the Giants have an interesting match against the Hawks to open the round. (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos/Getty Images)

Sydney play Port Adelaide on Saturday afternoon and might find the going tough against a desperate Power side at home. I’ll give Port the nod here, although their consistency (or lack thereof) is seriously concerning me here.

Collingwood take on Melbourne in Saturday’s opening clash and, while I’m fully expecting the injury-hit Pies to run it close against a better-than-their-ladder-position-suggests Demons outfit, I’ll give Eddie McGuire’s boys the tip here.

Essendon take on the Western Bulldogs later on Saturday night and, despite Essendon’s poor performance last week, I do think they’ll bounce back against the Dogs.

Geelong host North Melbourne at GMBHA Stadium also that night. There’s been a lot of conjecture about an upset here, but I can’t see it happening and will pick the Cats to win.

The hardest tip for me this week is Sunday’s St Kilda and Fremantle clash. Despite Fremantle’s superb win last weekend, I’m still deeply unsure about their consistency here, and the Saints’ haven’t been half-bad under Brent Ratten, either.

Purely because it’s at home for the Saints, I’ll be tipping them, although a Freo win here wouldn’t surprise.

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