With 11 losses and a final-round road game against a West Coast side likely to be fighting for a top-two finish, the Hawks’ chances or finishing in the top eight are extremely slim.
The Giants, on the other hand, are all but locked in for a fourth-straight finals appearance and still have a shot at a precious top-four finish.
On the surface, this doesn’t seem like a particularly captivating game, but there is one very good reason to get excited: SNOW GAME!
With the temperature in Canberra tipped to be in low single-digits, it’s possible – albeit not probable – that tonight’s match could be played in and/or on snow. Just the thought of it makes me giddy, particularly with the added element of the Hawks’ macho no-long-sleeves rule.
After holding on against the Swans for a two-point win, the injury-ravaged Giants welcome back Coleman Medal leader Jeremy Cameron, but lose their next two leading goalkickers in Jeremy Finlayson and Harry Himmelberg. Connor Idun also goes out after one game. Adam Kennedy and Dawson Simpson are the other inclusions.
The Hawks have also made three changes, with Grant Birchall going out – for what might sadly be the last time – along with Ben McEvoy and Conor Nash. James Cousins, Jonathan Ceglar and debutant Changkuoth Jiath come into the side.
Last time these sides met, the Hawks bored everyone – including the Giants – to death with a slow, deliberate game plan that, to their credit, earned them the four points with a 33-point win.
Toby Greene. (AAP Image/David Moir)
All Australian contender Ricky Henderson was arguably the game’s best player on that day with 36 disposals, which included 22 kicks and seven inside-50s. James Sicily – also in the team of the year mix – was also brilliant with 27 touches and a goal.
Finlayson (17 touches and three of the Giants’ five goals) and Josh Kelly (26 disposals, seven clearances, six inside-50s and nine tackles) were GWS’s two best players in the loss. Unfortunately for tonight’s home team, neither of those players is in this week’s line-up.
With Kelly, co-captain Callan Ward and superstar Stephen Coniglio sidelined, GWS have had to shake things up in the midfield. Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper have taken on a greater load, but the latest move has seen Zac Williams shifted from the back third to the middle of the ground, and the fleet-footed Williams has responded with career highs in disposals, clearances and marks against the Swans last round.
The Hawks have also had to find midfield solutions this season. Already light on ball-winners, the midfield brigade got even thinner when reigning Brownlow medallist Tom Mitchell snapped his leg in the preseason.
Jaeger O’Meara has stepped up, averaging career-best numbers in disposals, clearances and contested possessions. But it’s youngster James Worpel who has been the biggest revelation this season.
Jaeger O’Meara of the Hawthorn Hawks (Photo by Scott Barbour/Getty Images)
Worpel is averaging an impressive 26.3 disposals, 11.6 contested possessions, 5.8 clearances and 4.3 inside-50s. Those are super numbers, and his past fortnight – in which he’s averaged 35.5, 14.5 and 9 in those aforementioned categories – has been brilliant.
The Giants are second in the league for clearance differential this season with a +4.7 average, while the Hawks are second last at -6.8. Just how those numbers stack up tonight with so many GWS star onballers in the stands will be fascinating – the Giants are also the league’s best contested possession team (+12.5).
This game means a hell of a lot more to the Giants than it does to the Hawks, but GWS might just have hit a tipping point with their injury list, and the Hawks – who have named this round’s third-most experienced team – aren’t a club that punts games away.
Nonetheless, I’m tipping the Giants by 20 points and praying that it snows.
That’s my Friday night forecast. What’s yours?
justif01
Guest
This game proves why the Giants have missed their flag window. They could have won in it in 2016 but they have too little depth now. The ridiculous thing is seeing Tom Scully running around for the Hawks when the Giants are missing Kelly, Coniglio, Ward and Hopper. Then they traded out Shiel and Lobb and you have a banged up Mumford and Dawson Simpson playing in the same side (no idea how they can justify that) whilst Jon Patton is on the sidelines on probably 700k a year.
Raimond
Roar Guru
the Hawks could be in holiday mode, or highly motivated to frack up the G's season -- probably depends on how the match starts
Raimond
Roar Guru
the Giants haven't won four in succession this year, so...
Republican
Guest
Manuka did boast a playing surface as big as the 'G'. I played on it as a nipper, for the now extinct name sake Bull Ants, in their Atoms and Sub Atoms. Didn't see much action on the wing, in fact I couldn't see over the centre mound where most of the action seemed to be anytime we played there. Always marked my man vigilantly however, as he did me.
Republican
Guest
........snow rarely settles in town especially these days. Could be chilly as a spectator especially if the bluster continues. Might see some sporadic flurries falling from the heavens as we have throughout the day but even thats unlikely. There is much melodrama created by media around winter weather events here these days and thats because its almost always dry and sunny in this weather less arid capital. We have just experienced the warmest July on record, while Winter has been a non event truth be told.
anon
Roar Pro
Scraping over the line against bad teams means you're at the same level as a bad team. In your world each team starts as a $1.95 even money chance.
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
Did you know that a 'near loss' is a win? Add 'winning' to your newest list of things that aren't good enough in the AFL.
Jim
Roar Rookie
Weather is fould down here today - going to be absolutely freezing for those souls happy enough to venture out to Manuka! Should be a good game but wind will make kicking straight tough. Giants by a couple of kicks in a low scoring game.
TomC
Roar Guru
And swirling.
normalozperson
Roar Rookie
Ah well had to play it some where like Canberra at lest the mob from Victoria wont have far to drive if they played it in Sydney they would have had to do their usual trick & make up a crowd number Mind you at GWS home games they make up just about the entire crowd
Brian
Guest
Ward, Patton
anon
Roar Pro
No, it does when you consider the easy games they've dropped throughout the year, nearly losing to a poor Sydney side.
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
A loss doesn't indicate 'serious issues'. So melodramatic! A loss might just indicate an absence of Kelly, Coniglio, De Boer, Finlayson, Himmelberg...
Peter Warrington
Guest
no it is almost the same as the MCG and thus almost the same as Wilkins
Pope Paul VII
Roar Rookie
Let it snow.
anon
Roar Pro
Hawks are a poor team. GWS has serious issues if they can't get this done.
IAP
Guest
It's blowing a gale too
TomC
Roar Guru
Manuka is roughly normal length, but very wide. Similar to the MCG. The big difference to the MCG is the way the wind gets a hold of the ball without the protection of the stands. It is a tough ground to play in windy weather. EDIT: Excuse me, this was intended to be a response to Mango Jack’s comment.
Birdman
Roar Rookie
McEvoy's injury is a blow for the Hawks but good to see Cousins get another chance after some good form at Box Hill and youth Jiath finally debuting albeit in arctic conditions. Giants own Manuka but Hawks have nothing to lose or fear and will sneak home by less than 2 goals. Maybe.....
Mango Jack
Roar Guru
Played at Manuka Oval, or named after whoever today's sponsor is. A smallish ground I think, which may help the Giants.