Justin Langer has declared the Lord’s pitch “really flat”, which seems at odds with what most pundits were expecting, especially with England selecting Jofra Archer.
If Langer is correct – and his track record at Edgbaston suggests he knows a bit about pitches – does Tim Paine really want to win the toss?
Traditional wisdom suggests a captain winning the toss bats first.
So the story goes, if the pitch looks like it might suit the bowlers, the captain winning the toss thinks long and hard about bowling and still bats first.
If that formula holds true and Paine wins the toss, he’s more than likely to bat first and work on getting plenty of runs across two innings so Nathan Lyon can go to work late on Day 4 and into Day 5 on a deteriorating pitch.
Photo by Ryan Pierse/Getty Images
This sounds good in theory, but he has two openers in less-than-stellar form, playing on a pitch that is likely to have a little bit of early life but should settle down if it is as flat as Langer predicts.
Archer will obviously be fired up for a big performance, supported by Chris Woakes, who had an outstanding Test against India with both bat and ball last year.
Does Paine want to risk another 8-122 scoreline on Day 1 if these guys get their tails up?
The alternative scenario looks inviting, assuming the pitch plays as described above. Pat Cummins, James Pattinson and co. will be a real handful, certainly for the first session, and England is just as likely to crumble under the fast bowling onslaught.
If the Aussies can roll England on Day 1, then bat when the pitch has settled down, it would take the threat of Archer largely out of the equation – Woakes, too, would be much less of a handful.
The one factor that might play a large part is the weather.
Heavy rain is expected on Wednesday and Paine would then have to worry about the humidity lingering. Again, Woakes – in particular – is in his element if the air is heavy, so batting on Thursday might be hard work.
These issues are exactly the same for Joe Root, only more so. He’s one down in this series, his side failed to make runs at Edgbaston, and he needs his batsmen to make a statement – he’s likely to bat first if he wins the toss.
If this plays out, Paine won’t be too disappointed. It gives his team a chance to see how the pitch will play, gives his bowlers first use of whatever life there is in the deck, and avoids confronting Archer for a few sessions.
Tim Paine has a terrible record at guessing the coin toss and this might be one time when it suits Australia for that record to continue.
Jeff
Roar Rookie
If there is rain about, the umpires will be looking at the situation and they think the groundsmen can get the wicket ready for play in say, 45 mins, they'll call for the toss and the 30 minutes will be used to allow both teams to get ready but also for the final wicket preparations to be undertaken - line marking etc. The playing conditions governing scheduled breaks during interruptions of play due to weather are below. https://icc-static-files.s3.amazonaws.com/ICC/document/2018/09/27/061adf29-5cf7-486b-858b-ca5ad6bde935/03-Mens-Test-Match-Playing-Conditions-2018.pdf
Omnitrader
Roar Rookie
30 minutes is a long time though, I know at the MCG they have indoor wickets etc where they could warm up then head out do the toss and start. Not sure if they have those facilities at Lords though. I just hope they don't have a farcical situation where they're off for a few hours, come out and then take tea or lunch within an hour.
Paul
Roar Guru
I think you might be right, Jeff. Warner really seems to lift when challenged by the quicks, at least that's the impression he gives me. I'm very sure he wants to get a good score at Lords, preferably a ton, for a raft of reason, not the least of which is to try and get on top of Archer.
Pope Paul VII
Roar Rookie
Interrupted play often favours the batting team as the bowlers sometimes struggle for rhythm, the capt to implement plans and the ball can be damp ball.
Jeff
Roar Rookie
If it's raining they will delay the toss until they have confirmed in their own minds what the start time for the match will be. So if it rains all Day 1, it may very well be a toss on Day 2. They only need 30 minutes after the toss to get players out.
Jeff
Roar Rookie
The Warner/Archer match up will be an interesting one. I wonder if Archer is in fact exactly the sort of bowler Warner needs to be facing right now, using Archer's pace to get a few runs away in quick time.
Omnitrader
Roar Rookie
I know they come out on the field and do the toss, but surely if it is looking like rain or raining, have the toss in the shed or the long room and get the players on the field ASAP.
Paul
Roar Guru
I'm guessing of course, but I think the selectors have him as a lock for the series and only wanted to see how Bancroft versus Harris stacked up. Totally agree he should have had a hit, even if it was down the order.
Jules
Roar Rookie
I don't know why Warner was rested from the tour game. It's not like he was out there batting for a lot of the First test and he's hardly had any red ball cricket in a year.
Paul
Roar Guru
I'm still concerned about Archer and any lingering weather, Jeff. If Warner at least was in great form, I probably wouldn't have written this piece, but as it stands, we're vulnerable early in the innings. If I was Paine, I'd really be in two minds, hence my suggestion he loses the toss to take that element out of the equation
Peter Hunt
Roar Guru
Good article Paul and some interesting points. I can't wait until play gets underway. Bursting with excitement. Hopefully, the weatherman is as competent as Moeen Ali's spin bowling at Edgbaston.
Jeff
Roar Rookie
The toss is an interesting one Paul. Day 1 at best looks like scattered showers from 9am-11am, then heavy/consistent all day. So the X factor will be whether they get a break in the weather around 10am and have the toss, which would most likely mean the decision to bat/field is made but no actual play until the start of Day 2, or if the toss is delayed till the start of Day 2. I think it's shaping up as the latter. If the hardness of the wicket and overhead forecasts are to be believed, Day 2 (mostly sunny perhaps with very brief sun showers) may be the best day to bat and Day 3 (overcast all day with some rain settling in in the last hour) may be the most difficult to bat. I think I'd be wanting to bat first. If the track/weather conditions stay as expected, Lyon may be difficult late on Day 4 and on Day 5. The ball will likely grip but I expect he'll also get quite a bit of drift with the wind/gusts coming across the wicket on the last couple of days.
Paul
Roar Guru
just a couple of thoughts, mbp. I did not say the openers were out of form, I said they were " in less than stellar form". In other words, both have looked scratchy, Warner certainly in that first Test and Bancroft in both the Test and that recent County game. As for your comments about Finch, best to leave that for another forum. It's enough to say he can't play because he's not in the squad.
pakistanstar
Roar Rookie
Finch played 5 tests last season. Kept getting out caught in the cordon or LBW when he plants his front foot like a T20 player. Also he's only played T20 since the World Cup. Not up to it.
Derek Murray
Roar Rookie
Mmmm. Let me think. Test average 27 or FC average over 140 innings of 35. Must be some other compelling reason I’m missing with those stats. Finch is a fine, perhaps great, white ball cricketer and a very good skipper but he has never delivered a message saying “pick me” for tests. It’s great cricket in the 21st century allows players to succeed in specific formats but we can’t lose sight of specific skills (and weaknesses)
mbp
Guest
2 openers that are not in good form? bancroft maybe..... how can you say warner is not in good form? look at how he played in the world cup. a couple of low scores in the first test does not mean warner is out of form. warner is an incredible talent. he will get runs sooner rather than later...... BAT FIRST if the toss is won. its the only thing that makes sense at lords. ps. why is aron finch not playing???? why has he not been given a chance at test level...? inform in england.... frequently scores big hundreds like smith and warner. SELECTORS WHY...?