The last month saw both Rhyce Shaw and David Teague turn their respective caretaker roles with North Melbourne and Carlton into full-time appointments.
It is clear both Shaw and Teague have done an excellent job in their new roles. Both have greatly improved their teams’ records and are overseeing a strong brand of footy. Shaw has improved the Kangaroos behind a focus on the contested ball, which has meant North has become a genuinely challenging side to play. Teague, conversely, has freed up the Blues in playing a more open, attacking brand of footy that has supercharged Carlton’s scoring.
But despite the merits of Shaw and Teague, both clubs have erred in appointing them too soon. North Melbourne and Carlton have narrowed their options and ignored the lessons of history in appointing their caretakers, and it may ultimately be to their detriment.
To demonstrate the risks faced in appointing a caretaker coach, I have compiled the records of the last ten caretaker coaches who were later appointed to the full-time job of that club and compared their winning record as a caretaker to their winning record as a full-time coach.
(Robert Cianflone/Getty Images)
| Coach | Caretaker win rate | Full-time win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Primus | 71 per cent | 20 per cent |
| Brett Ratten | 0 per cent | 54 per cent |
| Mark Harvey | 57 per cent | 39 per cent |
| Neil Craig | 44 per cent | 57 per cent |
| Paul Roos | 60 per cent | 57 per cent |
| Peter Rohde | 100 per cent | 18 per cent |
| Grant Thomas | 14 per cent | 54 per cent |
| Terry Wallace | 30 per cent | 56 per cent |
| Jeff Gieschen | 80 per cent | 52 per cent |
| Alan Joyce | 60 per cent | 38 per cent |
What is noticeable from that table is how weak the relationship is between success as a caretaker and success as a full-time coach. Coaches like Matthew Primus, Peter Rohde and Alan Joyce found success relatively easy as a caretaker but failed as a full-time appointee. Conversely Brett Ratten, Grant Thomas and Terry Wallace struggled as caretakers but were strong full-time coaches. The only one of those caretakers who accurately predicted their performance as a full-timer was Paul Roos.
So why is there such a weak relationship between caretaker success and full-time success? I suggest there are both tactical and emotional reasons for this difference.
The tactical reason is that caretaking is a relatively unnatural reflection of the strategic skills involved as a full-time coach. A caretaker is usually taking over a team that has operated for a long period of time under a defined game plan established by the previous head coach. The caretaker is accordingly limited to shaping that defined plan at the edges.
(Darrian Traynor/Getty Images)
Conversely a full-time coach is required to build a game plan for a team through preseason and into the matches proper. This can be a step too far for some caretaker coaches.
The emotional reasons stem from the mindset of a team at the time a coach is fired. While it is the coach who loses their job, it is natural for the players to feel a sense of responsibility for that sacking. This can create an unusual mental state in a team and can cause a caretaker to lead them to unexpected levels of performance. However, that heightened mental state will not last forever, which can cause a resulting loss of performance
Another reason the Kangaroos and Blues should not have appointed Teague and Shaw so promptly is that the clubs willfully narrowed their options by completing a coaching search in the middle of the season. Both clubs have stated that they did their due diligence in finalising those appointments, but I fail to see how that could have been the case – after all, completing a mid-season coaching search greatly limits the potential pool of candidates who can make a push for the role.
Head coaches are often selected from the current group of assistant coaches working within the AFL, but a mid-season hire can make life difficult for those assistants. Firstly, assistants sometimes face barriers to interviewing with prospective employers mid-season, as has recently been seen with Michael Voss at Port Adelaide. Secondly, even if they are allowed to interview elsewhere, the assistant coach is unlikely to be able to formulate as strong an application as they could due to the fact that they still have the primary focus of coaching their original club.
The last reason that the clubs should have waited to appoint their respective coaches after the season is to minimise the implicit biases presented in reviewing a working caretaker. Both Carlton and North Melbourne were looking for a person capable of being the head coach of their club, but part of that review involved looking at a person who was actually doing that job. To ensure that the review of that coach could occur in the most logical, dispassionate manner, they should have completed their review at the end of the season. That would have given the clubs the best opportunity to objectively review all the evidence about the performance of their caretakers.
It may turn out that both Shaw and Teague were excellent appointments for their respective clubs, and there are certainly signs that they will be accomplished head coaches. However, that does not excuse North Melbourne and Carlton from their failures to heed the ghosts of caretakers past and their potentially winnowing of their coaching alternatives.
ChrisH
Roar Rookie
One thing you didn't consider, Cameron, is how much the coaching caper has changed in even just the last few years. All the examples you use were from a different era of coaching. As Richmond - and to a lesser extent Collingwood - demonstrated, the structures and team around the coach plays a more important role than ever before. Coaching is less and less a one man show. You get the strong impression that this has been the root of Richmond and Collingwood's turnaround. What Shaw and Teague's success really reflects is that the best coaches now rely on their assistants more than ever. It's easy to conclude Scott and Bolton weren't listening enough to two guys who had answers.
Kane
Roar Rookie
Papley would be a great pick up but he's not worth 2 1st rounders
Kane
Roar Rookie
If they can't juggle their present role as well as prepare for an interview for another job then they are nowhere near ready for a senior coaching role
Seymorebutts
Guest
People saying Gill is moving heaven and earth to keep Coniglio at GWS, if that is correct he has compromised the competition and should be sacked. Its not up to Gill to decide what players go where..its up to the clubs... If GWS get any more advantages the other clubs should band together to abolish all restrictions on trading. Why bother playing by the rules when some clubs dont have too?. Ditto if GC get a priority pick, they need to trade those picks for established players, thats the whole point of the draft... just picking kids will not get you anywhere, unless they have some experienced guys in the trenches with them.
Macca
Roar Rookie
I am hearing Jack Martin is a dead set cert, Papley is interested but the Swans want 2 first rounders (that might change if the crows slide a bit) and we are thinking hard about Ellis. I wouldn't mind paying Coniglio well over because unlike the others he is a genuine elite talent.
13th Man
Roar Rookie
There may be a long list of possibles for the Freo job but Its quite likely that has already been cut down to a race in two between Longmuir and Sumich. I'd imagine most clubs when they sack a coach, whilst saying they have lots of guys they are interested in they really are only into 1 or 2. My guess at North is that they wanted Longmire, head hunted him but eventually Longmire signed. Without having really considered anyone else they decided there back up plan would be to go with the guy that's already in doing such a great job. Time will tell whether Rhyce Shaw is a success.
13th Man
Roar Rookie
Yeah look that's the risk that clubs take when appointing a coach, there is no exact science. Part of getting a new hope is selling hope and I think that Teague at Carlton is doing that in a way that Ross Lyon never would be able to, he's just a really likeable coach that the fans will get around. As a fan of a club who has just sacked their coach this week I personally would rather an untried coach like Longmuir or Kirk than an experienced head like Brad Scott or Micheal Voss, it may be a risk but getting a fresh outlook on things is part of what change is about.
Col from Brissie
Roar Guru
Yeah Gil doesn’t like us because we only kept him on the supplementary playing list when he was at Carlton. Would have loved to get a Coniglio but it was going to mean paying him too much money. Perhaps we can go hard at players like Hill, Papley and I believe there is interest in Ellis as well.
Macca
Roar Rookie
Col - saw this on another site from 2 different posters; "Multiple sources reporting that the AFL has assured GWS that there will be ambassadorial/marketing money included in any deal for Coniglio therefore making a "matching of contracts" unnecessary." "Can confirm Cogs is definitely staying at GWS. Heard from a Vic based player previously and last night at the basketball I sat with two senior business figures connected with our club. We are VERY mad at the AFL intervention." Seems the AFL aren't just playing favourites with Collingwood.
Macca
Roar Rookie
The blues "process" went for 10 weeks and involved someone who is the CEO of a recruitment company - where do you think it was lacking other than not waiting until other coaches had been sacked? (Even though it is well documented the blues actually spoke to Lyon as well as Clarkson who were current coaches).
Cameron Boyle
Roar Guru
I agree that Teague is more likely to succeed, he does seem to have some solid coaching bonafides. My issue is less with the individual appointments, but more the process that went into selecting them. It may well have been that Teague and Shaw were the best people to lead their clubs, but by making that decision mid-season the clubs narrow the field of potential candidates. It can become a bit of a self-justifying selection.
Cameron Boyle
Roar Guru
That's a good comment 13th. I recognise that my arguments are an overly theoretical examination of the process that should occur when appointing a head coach, but there are important emotional aspects that go into it as well. You're right, both Teague and Shaw have revitalised their teams and got them playing good footy and that hope they offer has a value. My only concern is that this emotional energy only lasts so long, hopefully they'll have the coaching chops to continue that success once the energy wears off.
Cameron Boyle
Roar Guru
I do think that experienced assistants deserve a go, but the issue with North and Carlton's approach is that it makes it more difficult for experienced assistant's outside the club to genuinely apply for the role. Even if other assistants are able to apply for the role (they sometimes aren't), it is very unlikely that they'll be able to dedicate much mental energy to the application as they are still in an ongoing coaching role.
David C
Roar Rookie
I like the Teague signing, Carlton had no choice and there was a process. Not sure on Shaw though, not enough experience for my liking. Look at the long list of possibles for the Freo job, why weren't any of them considered for the NM job?
Pedro The Fisherman
Roar Rookie
No Crow supporter I know wanted Teague. They are more interested in Mattner and Bassett, but hey, you guys let the Victorian media tell you what Crows fans want. It is the usual way. The Crows will sack Pyke at the end of next season if they do not at least make the finals (but probably at least win one)! Mediocrity is something Carlton aspires to, not something Adelaide fans will accept for any extended period!
Macca
Roar Rookie
He was a great coach "for the time", if Teague started where Botlon started he would have had a bloody hard time as well. I think that if the blues could have got 3 wins out of the Suns, Collingwood, Hawthorn (where the were in front late in the last quarter) & Port games and Swans games then it would have afforded Bolton the chance to release the players like Teague has but as the wins didn't come the pressure built and he simply doubled down on his plans and seemingly became stubborn.
13th Man
Roar Rookie
Not sure you can claim Bolton was a great coach when Teague, with exactly the same list performed exponentially better. Clearly either the players didn't understand the system he wanted them to play and he lost the players or he was simply out of his depth as a senior coach. From my understanding he was much loved by the playing group so I suspect it was the second one. Teague simply had to be appointed after how well he has turned Carlton round this year. The Ross Lyon sub plot is interesting that he was confirmed senior coach a week before Ross got the sack at Freo. Had he been sacked earlier would things at Carlton be different?
Macca
Roar Rookie
Once again you seem to have a Matthew like ability to hear somthing different to waht was being said ("great coach for the times" is very different to "great coach") No and No are the answers to your inane questions. As for Leppa ask a Brisbane supporter. As for are there stats to support Bolton being a good coach for the times at the blues, there are plenty but the big question is were the blues better placed at the end of his tenure than they were at the start and the answer to that is a big yes.
olrac
Guest
Bolton was the right man for the right time (3 years ago). Fagan came in at the Brisbane 2 years into the list build not at the start like Bolton. Bolton built a formidable defensive action in the blues, one that Teague is reaping the rewards for now. The blues have had an average year with Injuries but the majority of them have been in defence, but the system is good so they are conceding an even amount of points. Where Bolton went wrong is that he couldn't implement an offensive layer, and he could not delegate to get a better offensive coach (Teague) do it for him. Teague now gets the accolades but it is built on the hard work of Bolton and I think most Carlton supporters recognise this and are also happy that he is gone as his time was up.
DingoGray
Roar Guru
I think you will find Pete that Chris F politely declined the opportunity to be involved in previous Carlton process that ended with Bolts....