AFL semi-finals rarely matter. Did these?

There’s no doubting that, of the four weeks of the typical AFL finals series, the second week, the semi-finals, is generally the least consequential.

The preliminary finals determine who will play for the flag. The first week identifies the likely favourites for this. And the grand final, of course, determines the premiers.

The semi-finals, meanwhile, most often only provides us with an answer to which teams will lose in the preliminaries.

In the past 12 finals series, only four out of a possible 24 semi-final winners have gone on to win a prelim, two of those – Hawthorn in 2015, and the Western Bulldogs the year following – then winning the premiership.

Semi-finals, then, it’s fair to say, rarely matter, in the grand scheme of things. Will that prove true of these two we’ve seen this weekend?

Let’s put aside, for a moment, the 2019 premiership race. Likely the most controversial talking points to come out of both matches will be those matters that attract MRO attention.

We already know that Tom Hawkins has been offered a one-game ban for striking Will Schofield, which if accepted will see him miss the prelim against Richmond.

Expect Geelong to challenge this one – no longer does going to the tribunal mean risking an extra week on the sidelines, so the Cats have no real reason not to.

My tip would be that the Cats should argue there was insufficient force to constitute a reportable offence, and, so long as Schofield shows no signs of concussion, the tribunal will probably be convinced to let this one slide.

What we don’t know is what kind of action, if any, might be taken at Toby Greene over an incident where he again appeared to make contact with the face of an opponent during the match – this time Lachie Neale.

Last week a similar if more extended and explicit incident with Marcus Bontempelli saw Greene hit with a $7500 fine, but no suspension. If the AFL believe he’s repeated the same conduct just a week later, how will they respond to that?

Both issues represent a common moral crisis for the AFL, the MRO, and the Tribunal, regarding not just how they police incidents like this, but also whether that changes depending on the page of the calendar.

For mine, it’s simple: AFL players have no business making intentional contact with an opponent’s face or head, especially when not contesting the ball. Any incidences of such should be a one-week suspension, minimum.

However Hawkins is every chance to be free to play, and Greene last week was given a slap on the wrist and sent on this way.

The Greene ‘hearing’, in particular, was farcical. Greene pleaded guilty without describing at any point what he’d actually done, and the AFL nominated a punishment without pressing the issue.

Greene was never accused of, or asked to defend any alleged gouging of Marcus Bontempelli’s eye. And there will be those who point out, reasonably, that there was no explicit video evidence of this occurring.

But again: AFL players have no business making that kind of contact.

Even if the precise details of exactly what happened in that contact is a grey area, it should be prohibited entirely and punished in every occasion by suspension. No exceptions.

The AFL, then, is given a rare shot at redeeming an error they made just a week ago. Whether or not they do, and what it means for the future of how the game is played, certainly, is something that matters.

(Photo by Mark Metcalfe/AFL Photos/via Getty Images)

Also worth discussion, of course, is what this weekend’s results mean for those sides whose season has now ended – the West Coast Eagles, and the Brisbane Lions.

These are two teams at vastly different ends of the age and experience spectrums. West Coast fielded one of the league’s oldest sides this year, while Brisbane were the second-youngest team to play finals, older only than the massive outlier that is the Western Bulldogs.

The Eagles are in an interesting position. They’ll believe they were only a few near misses away from winnning another flag this year, and that with the right offseason moves, they could go for the Meatloaf premiership in 2020.

Tim Kelly, who ironically enough played a key role in dismantling them on Friday night, is set to be their big recruit. They have picks 13 and 22 in this year’s draft, plus their 2020 first-rounder, with which to bargain for him.

Of course, paying a multi-pick price for Kelly will unavoidably prove a drain on the stocks of young talent for the future. This result puts them close enough to the premiership mix that they’ll believe that’s a blow worth taking.

As for Brisbane, a straight-sets exit means they finish an extraordinary season with mixed emotions – which may, ultimately, be the best thing for them.

While the Lions were ferocious this year, it would be a mistake not to factor their easy draw and remarkably smooth run with injury into any consideration of their results.

Like Melbourne did this year, Brisbane will inevitably find out that it’s much harder to back up a breakout season than it is to have one in the first place.

For mine, they have two important things working in their favour that could prevent them being the Demons of 2020.

The first is that, having not actually won a finals match, there’ll be limited temptation to imbibe their own bathwater. The Lions have been left with no real laurels to rest on and will be exceedingly hungry to get back to September.

The second is that, despite not winning a final, they weren’t blown away in one either, like Melbourne were at Optus Stadium last September. Although unable to finish either match ahead on the scoreboard, the Lions clearly belong on the big stage.

Of course, another consideration for Brisbane, as it is for the Eagles, is whether or not to seek a big recruit to further their cause. I’d argue they’re in a position where they don’t really need to, but, if they want to, I have someone in mind – more on that another time.

For mine, the biggest takeaway from Brisbane’s finals campaign was the sheer volume of the crowd. The Gabbattoir is back to raucous acclaim, and that, without a doubt, is something that matters.

(Photo by Bradley Kanaris/AFL Photos via Getty Images )

Okay, enough beating around the bush – the last thing, the only thing that really matters in the short-term. Are the winners of this weekend’s matches any chance for the premiership?

For Geelong, the answer, simply, is no. I know it’d probably be smarter of me to hedge my bets – especially when it comes to the minor premiers – but I’m utterly certain this side will fail to make the grand final, to say nothing of the premiership.

I expected the Cats to enter Friday’s semi-final with fire in their bellies, and their dominant first term showed exactly that. But, even from there, they let the Eagles back in.

Richmond are a team who love to punish mistakes and Geelong simply have too many players in the side who make them too often. The Cats haven’t won two games in a row in months – that’ll continue next week.

GWS, going up against Collingwood at the same venue a day later, are a far more interesting proposition.

The Giants have, over the last two weeks, displayed a hard edge we didn’t previously know they had. They been tough, uncompromising, and yes, contemptible.

It reminds me of Hawthorn’s ‘unsociable’ three-peat footy. Like it or not, this is a brand of footy that wins finals matches. Brisbane, to their credit, didn’t crumble, but other teams might.

Collingwood will come into this match with a week’s rest under their belts and while that’s typically seen as an advantage, it does perhaps offer GWS a chance to jump them early.

Let’s not forget that the Pies only scraped past Geelong by ten points last week, and continue to miss a handful of key players.

Like Brisbane, they lack strong key forwards, meaning GWS’ backline pillars Phil Davis and Nick Haynes will again be primed to dominate the air if Collingwood’s kicking into forward 50 is anything less than precise.

GWS have the fittest and most complete side they’ve been able to put on the park all year at their disposal. And, there’s just a skerrick of a chance they could add Stephen Coniglio to that – a roll of the dice that would be a massive morale boost, should they take the chance.

The caveat, of course, is GWS have never won a final at the MCG, albeit from only a single attempt. Do they have enough momentum to cross that threshold two weeks in a row?

It remains to be seen, but for me this much is clear: if any team in 2019 is going to make a semi-final matter, it’s this one.