I think we can agree that the four best teams of the season are where they should be.
The Eagles and Lions had stellar seasons and could also be included in this group, but Brisbane fell short while playing in their first preliminary final since 2003 and the Eagles were beaten by a hungry Geelong unit at the MCG.
As we head into this weekend’s AFL preliminary finals, I’ve made a list of predictions to consider.
However things eventuate, these five narratives should provoke some discussion this weekend as we learn more about the two teams who will eventually face off in next weekend’s grand final. So here are five predictions for this weekend’s AFL preliminary finals.
Gary Ablett to hang up the boots
If the Cats lose against the Tigers, which I think is on the cards, I can definitely see Gary Ablett following the same path as Luke Hodge and pulling the pin on his career. At 35 years old, he’ll be the oldest man out there on Saturday and it’s hard to see him go around again with a 36-year old body unless the Cats win the flag and there’s an opportunity to go back-to-back.
At 33, the Giants ruckman Shane Mumford is another potential retirement-in-waiting, which would be his second retirement – he made a comeback in 2018 after retiring at the end of 2017.
Tim Kelly to get best on ground in losing final
What a season Tim Kelly has had. He’s been the third-best ball winner at the Cats this season along with 21 goals. He’s been a huge part of how Geelong create their goals, with 104 inside 50s and 17 goal assists.
In the Cats’ win over the Pies last week he racked up 31 touches, six inside 50s. Expect a similar prolific ball-gathering performance this week against Richmond plus two goals. Quality players shine, win or lose, and Tim Kelly will be hard to shut down.
(AAP Image/Julian Smith)
Tigers and Pies get wins
My gut feeling says the Tigers will get the job done against Geelong. The Chris Scott comment about Richmond not being as good as last year was weirdly timed. I respect that he is open to saying those things in public, but on the eve of the preliminary final?
I’m not sure the Tigers need any more motivation to knock off Geelong. The Tigers were up for a long time last year and, I guess, found it hard to keep the beast operating through the finals series. But 2019 has been all about timing their run. And they are humming right now.
As for the Pies, having an MCG final against the Giants, who could be without live wire Toby Greene, should result in another grand final appearance. The Pies’ midfield is elite and their small forwards seem to make the most of their forward entries with simple and effective execution.
Brodie Grundy could be the next Brownlow medallist
He’s overtaken Max Gawn as the competition’s premier ruckman and is currently negotiating his next payday. He is Collingwood’s sixth-best ball winner, averaging 21 disposals per game.
It will be interesting to see how Grundy fares in this year’s Brownlow Medal count. Max Gawn polled 20 votes in 2018; I think Grundy can earn more. When you look at how prolific Grundy’s tap work has evolved and factor in his ability to hurt the opposition with his ball-gathering, goal kicking and inside 50s, it makes him the ultimate weapon.
It makes him closer to the Brownlow medal than any other ruckman.
(AAP Image/Tracey Nearmy)
Tigers to win the 2019 grand final
I’m getting ahead of myself here, but if we had to predict a grand final winner, based on what we know and who is trending up at the right time, I’m putting money on Richmond to win their second flag in three seasons. They’ve won their last ten games, which included the 47-point smashing of an in-form Lions unit at the Gabba.
The Tom Lynch-Jack Riewoldt duo are awesome: they’ve kicked 75 goals between them. No other remaining club has a pair that comes close. And timing is everything: they’ve hit form just at the right time. I can see them winning the preliminary final by 35 points, with a four-goal grand final win over the Pies.
GGG
Roar Rookie
Ads that is one of the most ridiculous comments I've ever read. So the umps somehow make a conscious (or unconscious) decision to give the frees to Richmond and Collingwood at critical junctions within the game, as well as not penalize them, also at critical times, then once they're well in front they'll pay the opposition lots of frees to even it out. I think it's time you removed the alfoil hat mate
Chris
Guest
What about Farmer, Nicholls, Thompson, Mike Greene, Gary Dempsey, Don Scott, Carl Ditterich, Graeme Moss, Mike Fitzpatrick and Peter Moore? They make the abovenamed duo look pedestrian. Athletic ruckmen make the rest of the team stand three inches taller.
What in tarnation
Roar Rookie
When The Tigers win the Cup (poor ole Collingwood agggaain) and Brodie gets the Brownlow I will be taking a week off on my Sportsbet multi winnings. Its time to get back to the ruckman glory years of Stynes and Wynd...ok even Goodes #notarealruckman
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Agreed.
Brian
Guest
Tigers v Giants Grand Final. Tigers best team in it. Giants I just have a funny feeling will come good and beat Collingwood although I'm assuming a neutral umpiring performance which the Giants didn't get last year.
fabian gulino
Roar Rookie
gws could trouble the magpies.
IAP
Guest
I live in NSW.
Charlie
Roar Rookie
Mate, GWS could finish the regular season 22-0 and you still wouldn't think they were one of the best 4 teams. You have a dark, sinister dislike of the Giants, which fits in comfortably with the narrow-minded, Victoria-centric world you inhabit.
IAP
Guest
Predictions 4 and 5 don't relate to this weekend's preliminary finals - number 5 does indirectly, but not directly.
IAP
Guest
I don't think GWS is one of the best 4 teams this year - over the course of the year West Coast were better than them.
Seano
Roar Rookie
Geelong v GWS GF with Gaz best on ground in the prelim. Could it be a Lids Fairytale? Could Gaz with a norm 30 years after his Dad? Let’s hope so!
Parer Ben
Roar Rookie
I think west coast and Brisbane had a better year than GWS, but the top end has been fairly even so no surprise GWS make it. Brisbane played a semi final not a preliminary final. Presume you meant Tim Kelly’s game against WC last weekend?? I understand the end of season obsession with Richmond and Brisbane given how slick and exciting they’ve looked, but I’m struggling to see how they’re is such lopsided tipping for the Tigers given how well organised the Cats have been this year and their dismantling of WC last week. When they hit their zone no team has been able to shut down teams scoring like them as seen against the Pies and WC final quarters and earlier in round 12 against Richmond. Geelong looked like they got a bit of a glint back last week - my prediction is it will be fierce, but unless Geelong have a calamitous 40 minutes like they did against the Pies I can only see them winning by a fair margin.
Ads
Guest
Pies and Tigers will miraculously get the rub of the green until they gain the upper hand. May not win the free kick count, but the ones they get and they ones they dont give away will be the important ones...
Omnitrader
Roar Rookie
I'd say he is referring to the win over the weagles last week.
Parer Ben
Roar Rookie
Cameron 72 and Finlayson 42 - 114
XI
Roar Guru
Jeremy Cameron has kicked 72 goals and Finlayson has kicked 42 goals. Add in Himmelburg as third tall with 37 that’s 151. It also wasn’t the Lions first preliminary final since 2003 last weekend. It was their first semi-final since 2009. Their last prelim they won in 2004.
Brendon the 1st
Roar Rookie
GWS' two key forwards have kicked way more goals than 75, without looking it up it would be around the 100 mark. Darling and Kennedy would be over that mark as well.
Russ
Roar Rookie
In the Cats’ win over the Pies? Think you have that around the wrong way, which game were you watching?
Yattuzzi
Roar Rookie
Hope So. Even if the Cats go down, they need to have a decent crack.
Hawk12
Guest
Kills me to say but I have this feeling the cats might topple the tigers. I know no Hawkins makes it tough I just think they might frustrate the tigers into errors. Pies to beat giants. All year I tipped pies for the flag. 2 things worries me all year which could ruin that prediction. Injuries and a team called the cats. ????