This Saturday’s grand final is the match-up we didn’t think would happen.
Let’s face it: we all thought the 2019 decider would be a Richmond versus Collingwood affair. I certainly did, anyway.
But Greater Western Sydney pulled off a remarkable, stunning, historic win over the Pies in the prelim to give themselves a sniff of claiming their first premiership since joining the AFL in 2012.
There are lots of things to consider about this weekend. Richmond have been to this big dance before. They know how to win a flag. The Giants will be eager and nervous. They will also be hungry. Toby Greene is back. Will Tom Lynch be more lethal in front of goal than Jeremy Cameron?
With that, here are four predictions for the 2019 grand final.
Toby Greene wins the Norm Smith Medal
The bad boy of the AFL is back this week. The week before he visited the tribunal and got fined, then responded with 30 touches and two goals.
Expect Toby Greene to come out firing and leave it all out on the MCG. This can only mean good things for the Giants. When Greene is up, GWS seem to roll and function better. He is their heartbeat.
If he can produce a high-possession game with a few goals, and the Giants win, he will win the Norm Smith. Greene can pull off a performance Jason Akermanis in the 2003 grand final, when he booted five goals. And if he does that, the Giants will win.
GWS claim a breakthrough premiership
Wouldn’t it be a nice touch for the Giants to end their eighth season in the AFL with a flag?
They’ve had their chances, too. After being in the wilderness between their inaugural season in 2012 and 2015, the Giants have put themselves in a position to be flag contenders in the last three years. They lost to the eventual premiers twice in two preliminary finals: 2016 against the Bulldogs and 2017 against Richmond. In 2018 they fell short by ten points against Collingwood in the semi-final.
It feels like they are building toward a breakthrough flag. Yes, I said last week Richmond would claim the 2019 premiership, but the GWS win changed everything. Their defeat of the Pies will give Greater Western Sydney a sense of belief, resolve and finals know-how to get the job done on Saturday against the Tigers.
And the Tigers have won 11 games in a row: they are due for a loss.
Jeremy Cameron takes out the battle of the full forwards
Jeremy Cameron is the 2019 Coleman Medallist with 75 goals with Tom Lynch trailing with 61. Both have been very consistent this year.
Lynch had a massive impact in the prelim against the Cats, booting five goals and taking ten marks. And if you look at the big games this year, he’s delivered. Against the Giants earlier this season, he kicked three goals in Round 17 and four in Round 3. He’s a hard man to keep quiet.
Jeremy Cameron is equally tough to stop. His versatility up the ground makes him more of a problem. Against the Tigers this season, Cameron booted 7.5 and gathered 30 disposals in their Round 3 encounter, then kicked 3.4 in Round 17.
That tells us Cameron is getting a lot of shots on goal and can influence the game other than the scoreboard. Lynch is a dangerous weapon for the Tigers, but Cameron’s work rate gives him more opportunities to create and score, which could prove the difference on Saturday.
Dustin Martin has a quiet grand final
His disposals have been down this finals series. In the qualifying final against the Lions, he was kept to 14 touches, although he booted six goals, followed by 22 touches against the Cats in the preliminary final.
Perhaps this means Damien Hardwick is choosing to use Martin as more of an attacking weapon than contested ball-winner. But leading up to the finals series, Martin was hitting high-possession games: 30, 38, 34, and 35.
It was obvious against the Cats he was proppy at best and couldn’t keep up at the stoppages: Dangerfield and co. were able to break free easily, which is not the Martin we know. This would be a blow to the Tigers if Martin is not healthy.
Perhaps he could play as a forward and wreak havoc on the scoreboard. But who’s going to explode through the packs and break open the play like he does when he’s in full swing?
Following this trend, Martin will have a quiet grand final with little impact. Whatever ailment he has, it’s restricting him in ways that mean he won’t be able to operate at his lofty, elite level.
Michael44
Guest
Thanks guys. A Collingwood v Adelaide GF played in Perth, or a West Coast v Essendon GF played in Adelaide. If tickets were allocated just to the members of each club you would still get a >25,000 >25,000 split instead of the current 17,000 17,000 split. It surely can be done if the AFL wanted it badly enough...well,obviously not now because of the 40y contract..... Yep, not in my lifetime either Jon boy.
Doctor Rotcod
Roar Rookie
Just like Matt Stevic, Simon Meredith and Scott Jeffery for the Doggies “The league has reviewed the umpiring from the Grand Final and found that there were three to four decisions that were incorrect that went against the Sydney Swans. Those decisions deemed incorrect by the review included some failures to call sliding free kicks, most notably the contentious slide by Easton Wood on Dan Hannebery that resulted in a medial ligament injury to the Swan in the final quarter when the game lay in the balance. At least one other slide that wasn’t paid was viewed as a mistake. Incidents that were contentious included below the knees contact from Toby McLean on Kieren Jack that went against Jack for being too high, as well as a slide from Dale Morris on the wing which saw Tom Papley tumble over. Another incident involved Dane Rampe being called for holding the ball in the third quarter, which the league deemed an incorrect decision. The free against Rampe was quickly followed by a Clay Smith free for too high and goal. The AFL review did not deem the overall umpiring performance to be poor, but the league’s view was that it was beneath the level expected, bearing in mind the highly-experienced and capable umpires who officiated — Matt Stevic, Simon Meredith and Scott Jeffery. Overall, the Western Bulldogs received 20 free kicks to the Swans’ eight. The differential of 12 was the biggest in a Grand Final since the three-umpire system was introduced in 1994.” Let’s not let that happen again..
Mark.
Guest
Great post. Agreed on the Tigers “supporters” who come in here and post slogans and not much else.
IAP
Guest
Yep. Turn around, touch the ground, no returns.
Pope Paul VII
Roar Rookie
Razor is everyone's greatest concern.
Angela
Roar Rookie
'No-one seems to be able to accept losing with grace anymore. It’s quite a sad reflection on our society.' IAP pontificating on sore losers - tee-hee, self-awareness gone south it seems.
Angela
Roar Rookie
IAP demonstrates the old saying that wisdom comes with age as being a complete furphy :stoked:
Angela
Guest
6x6 - surely you must know by now that IAP is always right? Shame on you.
anon
Roar Pro
Don Freo still think Freo will make the finals this season.
Nico
Roar Rookie
Lol
Parkside Darren
Roar Rookie
Have you seen GWS play. They use precision kicking and go long down the boundary when there isn’t a hit up kick. Richmond run and carry the ball through the middle using handball.
Doctor Rotcod
Roar Rookie
Gage Roads IPA or Single Fin if you want locally owned
Parkside Darren
Roar Rookie
Funny I lived in Victoria for the first 25 years of my life and barrack for a Victorian team but don’t have a myopic view like you. Maybe those facts are irrelevant and it’s just how you see the world?
Peter
Guest
Mummies direct opponent is a guy named Toby. You could've claimed it.
Parkside Darren
Roar Rookie
Richmond is an upstart that didn’t join the camp until 1911. Don’t get me started on those Johnny come lately bulldogs who’ve only been competing since 1925.
Don Freo
Roar Rookie
Yep. Time you did that.
bradfordkenneth
Roar Rookie
good for you champ. you know everything about hubris too eh?
bradfordkenneth
Roar Rookie
Everyone I know. And they are all footy tragics from Victoria and Western Australia.
DTM
Guest
"I know all there is to know about footy." Typical arrogant comment. No real expert on any subject would make such a ludicrous claim.
Jonboy
Roar Rookie
Good call, no problem Richmond deserve GF at home they have one that right. But hopefully it will be a true national comp. one day. Stuff the MCG members and corporate snobs. Not in my time though.