The referees have been announced for the Rugby World Cup quarter-finals. Nigel Owens has been given the whistle for the New Zealand vs Ireland game on Saturday.
As well he might. The chatty Welshman has been one of the best referees in the world for the past decade or so and has blown many of the biggest contests over that time.
He is fair, funny, conscientious and scrupulously impartial.
He is not, however, infallible. Like any ordinary mortal he makes mistakes from time to time, and like any referee he has to make 50-50 calls that can only go 100 per cent in favour of one team leaving the other to rue what might have been.
With any decent referee at any level, the expectation should be that the tough 50-50 calls, and even the occasional wrong one, should even out over 80 minutes so that no side gains an unfair advantage.
If it is not possible that equilibrium be achieved at the end of one match, then the same referee officiating a series of matches between the same two teams should be expected to award an equal number of marginal calls to each team over the totality of his engagements with them.
This is a simple statement of the law of averages.
Which is why New Zealand have more to fear from the gods of chance than Ireland next Saturday because they are heavily in debt to Mr Owens for a couple of vital decisions that went their way – in not one but two desperately close Test matches against Ireland.
Aaron Smith scores a try for the All Blacks (Photo by Renee McKay/Getty Images)
The first was in Christchurch in 2012, when the second match of a three-Test series was held in a city struggling to recover from a recent devastating earthquake.
New Zealand had won the first Test comfortably enough a week before and the combination of an Irish team smarting from that defeat and possibly a rare instance of All Black complacency resulted in a nail-biting finale with the scores level as the game neared its conclusion.
With less than 10 minutes left, an All Black was ordered to the bin for a late tackle on Irish full back Rob Kearney. From the ensuing Irish attack the ball was knocked on deep in the New Zealand half and a scrum awarded, at which the All Black pack was splintered by the Irish and retreated in some disarray.
Inexplicably, to Irish eyes at least, Owens ordered a penalty against Ireland for “deliberately wheeling” the scrum.
From the ensuing attack, the All Blacks moved down field and an attempted dropped goal was partially charged down, which fortunately for New Zealand meant that their forwards were resuming from a ruck on the goal-line and were all placed onside.
They were able to force a 5m scrum as soon as the Irish defence retrieved the ball. The drop goal from such a position proved to be a gimme for Dan Carter and New Zealand won by three points.
The penalty award that started the attack was so contentious, however, that one of the legendary figures of Welsh rugby felt moved to write to the Irish Times to protest his compatriot’s decision.
Charlie Faulkner had been the loose head in the celebrated Pontypool Front Row of the 1970s, a club trio which had played together many times for Wales and once, during a tour match, for the British and Irish Lions in New Zealand in 1977.
Pointing out to two infringements by New Zealanders at the scrum which could only have contributed to its destruction by the Irish pack he called Owen’s decision “bizarre to say the least”.
The Irish had plenty to say to the referee in their loss to the All Blacks. (AFP, Franck Fife)
Few in Ireland disagreed.
The following year in Dublin, Owens was again in the middle when Ireland came as close as they ever had to a first win over New Zealand.
Leading by five points as the game entered its final minute, they were picking and driving to keep possession and run down the clock. Scuttlebutt has it that referees are encouraged in such instances to be very strict on the attacking team and to award no leniency at the breakdown.
So when the Irish prop Jack McGrath stumbled at a ruck, despite being nowhere near the ball, there would be no question of the maxim De Minimis Non Curat Lex being applied. He was penalised and the All Blacks inevitably ran in a try with the clock well in the red.
Like the famous bus for which one waits for an hour only to see two or three arrive at once, Ireland had to wait 111 years to record a first win against the All Blacks.
They have now won two out of the last three encounters. Could it be three from four? The bookies reckon it will be New Zealand by 12 (at the time of writing) but if there is one score in it in the last minute and Mr Owens has to make a contentious decision?
Well, he owes Ireland one.
Or two.
Dublin Dave
Roar Rookie
Sorry to bump this after four years but I was just reminded of it when I heard the sad news that Charlie Faulkner, the former Pontypool, Wales and Lions prop who's sages comments are mentioned herein, passed away recently at the age of 81. His death was announced to the crowd before the start of the Wales England match last weekend.
One Eye
Roar Rookie
Neither is being a presumptive ignoramus
kgbagent
Roar Rookie
Big Bad AB's eh - nobody else does that = sheesh
kgbagent
Roar Rookie
Interesting interview https://youtu.be/q8TlJknG2dw?t=418
Derm
Roar Guru
I haven’t read the Aus press. No one has mentioned it in any discussions I’ve had. Relying on Twitter bleats from excitable teenagers and twenty-somethings is rarely a good way to form an opinion.
Zack
Roar Rookie
Dublin Dave forgets that our Nige is the All Black's 24th man on the pitch... :laughing:
Zack
Roar Rookie
The All Blacks will go into this match very motivated, remembering the 17th November 2018 loss in Dublin. And they will be equally as brutal as they were in the Dublin return match following the Chicago loss, a match the Irish scribes and some supporters are still whining about over the All Blacks' "aggression". I've got the All Blacks by 20+, and Australia by 13 over the Poms.
Zack
Roar Rookie
O'Sullivan again: "Joe's got a very predictable, very solid, very experienced XV, compared to the All Blacks XV which is not as experienced and I would say not quite as solid." I guess 750+ caps in the run-on 15 plus another 250+ off the bench is severely lacking in "experience"!!
RugbyLover
Roar Rookie
well Realist that's the beauty of the WC... at any time a team can jump up and beat you when you weren't expecting it!! Call it a fluke if you like but just maybe.......
moaman
Roar Guru
I'm a bit of an Eddie O'Sullivan fan,having seen him on Youtube quite a lot. Reported in NZ's crappy Stuff today however,this report from the former Ireland coach has me shaking my head. "O'Sullivan has questioned New Zealand's continued use of twin playmakers Beauden Barrett and Richie Mo'unga, seeing that as a positive for Ireland. He feels Mo'unga doesn't have an A-grade field kicking game at No 10 while Barrett's presence at fullback limits his precious time with the ball in hand to utilise his attacking genius. O'Sullivan also feels New Zealand's goalkicking is fragile compared to the sure boot of Johnny Sexton and he noted New Zealand's lack of discipline at the breakdowns."Richie Mo'unga has not a great kicking game. He's not as astute at exploiting (the space) in the back field. That's good for us. Especially, if it's wet. "It's another weakness"
James
Guest
Memo to Nigel Owens: When the play becomes fast and unstructured is when the ABs will most often break the rules. They will enter rucks from the side, play the ball on the ground, loiter offside, etc. but they will move the ball about so quickly and shift the point of attack so often, that the officials will be focussing on where the play is, not the infringement(s) that occurred just before. It is very difficult to referee this, but I’m sure you are up to it.
sheek
Roar Guru
Hullo Dublin Dave, Trust you are well. While the Irish heritage in me might be hoping for an upset, my feet are grounded in reality. NZ will beat Ireland & England will beat Australia. Of course, long ago David upset Goliath against the odds, but that's because Goliath was arrogant, overconfident & complacent. Had Goliath been wary, watchful & vigilant, David would have got nowhere. That's the true moral of the tale - be vigilant, not complacent. NZ very rarely let their guard down, because they're conditioned to win everything. They had their 'down tools' moment against the Wallabies in Perth recently. That won't happen again for quite a few years. England will also be suitably motivated. Four years ago they tanked in their pool when they were expected to top it. Also, assistant coach John Mitchell will remind them of what happened to his ABs back in 2003 when they didn't give the Wallabies sufficient respect in their semi-final clash. The same will happen in the South Africa-Japan game. The Brave Blossoms might have blindsided the Boks four years ago, but the Boks are fully awake this time. They will employ their famous boa constrictor tactics on Japan, suffocating them of possession & space. The only quarter-final up for grabs is Wales-France, where Les Blues are the one team capable of defying form & just about everything else. Although, I still expect Wales to prevail. So that's it for me, England & NZ to meet in one semi-final, & SA & Wales to meet in the other semi-final.
Smiggle Jiggle
Roar Guru
I still think the AB's have been holding back for the 1/4. I think Ireland are in for shocker.
The Late News
Roar Rookie
Dave...lots of fun. You managed to get the Kiwi Roarers up and out of bed early. Well done!
The Late News
Roar Rookie
Top of the pops? Is that like the captain of the 50 year reunion?
The Late News
Roar Rookie
Hmmm...I was wondering that too!
The Late News
Roar Rookie
Adam...if I ever need cheering up...logging onto the Roar is a certain way!!
The Late News
Roar Rookie
indeed they were Eddie!
Brian Westlake
Roar Rookie
It will, but to only one of the teams
PeterK
Roar Guru
it would have been a wallaby scrum not a scottish one