Whatever happens next, the Brave Blossoms have changed Japanese rugby forever

During the Fox Sports discussion after Japan’s victory over Scotland to take them into the World Cup finals, Justin Harrison made this stunning call: “This is a side, the Brave Blossoms, that is a World Cup-contending team.”

Wow!

And rather than retreating a bit from this fearless prediction, Harrison doubled down. “The Brave Blossoms played like a team that can challenge for the World Cup,” he told the other panel members.

They say a week in politics is a long time. The same can be said about the World Cup.

We have had, in that time, a massive typhoon smashing into Japan. This force of nature threatened to do the same thing to the integrity of the World Cup tournament, especially with the possibility of Japan going into the finals without having to face Scotland in their final match of the pool rounds.

Then we had the typhoon being recreated, as it were, on the field. Japan overwhelmed Scotland in the first 40 minutes of the final pool round match.

Scotland was destroyed by rugby typhoon some of the most dazzlingly effective ball-running, chasing and kicking that we have seen in World Cup history.

Kenki Fukuoka of Japan (Photo by Stu Forster/Getty Images)

Scotland was blown out of the tournament by the typhoon-like opening 40-minute onslaught by Japan.

As Justin Harrison pointed out, Japan “dismantled a tier one rugby nation.”

When the Brave Blossom’s captain, Michael Leitch, was asked after the match what his thoughts were about the stunning performance of his side, he made this memorable comment: “We’re going to give it everything in the next couple of games.”

“In the next couple of games …” Wow, again!

How is this for commitment and confidence on the part of the Brave Blossoms?

It is quite clear from the way Japan went about winning all four of their pool round matches that this is a side that has prepared for the whole tournament, including the knockout stages.

By way of contrast, the Brave Blossoms in the Rugby World Cup 2015 tournament concentrated, essentially, on defeating the Springboks. Then they lost to Scotland and were denied a place in the finals.

My book – How To Watch The Rugby World Cup – includes several long essays about each of the World Cup tournament.

One of the truths that I discovered in these literary investigations is that each World Cup tournament takes on a distinctive life of its own. And that distinctive life often has an influence on which teams wins the Webb Ellis trophy.

This World Cup in Japan has already been marked by two events that are having an impact already on how the tournament is unravelling. That impact, I would argue, works in favour of the Brave Blossoms.

The first event is the nationalistic passion that the Japanese people have embraced during this tournament.

There are echoes in this tournament of the 1995 World Cup tournament where President Nelson Mandela inspired the Springboks before the final against the All Blacks by wearing the No.6 jersey of South Africa’s captain, Francois Pienaar.

Leitch, the Japanese equivalent of Pienaar, spoke initially in Japanese and then provided the English translation of his words expressing his emotions after the victory against Scotland.

This to me was a sort of invocation, not as powerful as Mandela’s gesture – what could be? – to the Samurai spirit of the Japanese in times of stress and high emotion where bravery is required, on and off the field.

Leitch was, rather as Mandela did, making the Brave Blossoms the epitome of Japan, Japan in rugby gear taking on the world.

In Rugby World Cup 1995, too, grounds staff worked feverishly to ensure that a flooded Kings Park was playable, after an unseasonable deluge left the field covered with water.

If the ground had remained unplayable, the Springboks would have been out of the tournament finals because their opponents, France, had incurred fewer yellow and red infringements.

South African President Nelson Mandela at the 1995 World Cup (AP Photo / Jan Hamman)

Teams of turbaned black women swept the water from the field. This allowed the match to take place. The Springboks won a narrow victory, with the last few minutes of the match being camped on their own try line as France pressured them with scrums and driving mauls.

There were echoes of this Durban rescue over the weekend at Yokohama Stadium, where Japan was to play Scotland, if the ground was playable.

Officials slept inside the stands on Saturday night, listening to the typhoon howling outside, so that at sunrise they could start repairing the ground and the stadium.

The match between Japan and Scotland featured a silent tribute to the people killed in the typhoon before the contest started.

And Leitch in his statement after the game, again speaking in Japanese, expressed his team’s tribute to the victims.

Here, as in Rugby World Cup 1995, was a team identifying totally with their people in the stands and around the nation watching the play in record numbers.

The Brave Blossoms have become the epitome of Japanese national identity. This is a very powerful motivator when the team takes to the field.

I was reminded when I thought about this of the reaction in New Zealand when Richie McCaw and other Christchurch All Blacks immediately went out and helped victims with the clean-up after the massive and deadly earthquake early in 2011 that flattened most of their city.

So the narrative of this 2019 World Cup has become one of a test of a nation’s resilience and courage, on and off the field.

We saw that with the inspired play of the Brave Blossoms at the beginning and end of the match against Scotland.

Japan players celebrate (WILLIAM WEST/AFP/Getty Images)

The Brave Blossoms, going into their knock-out match against the Springboks, are one of four teams out of the eight quarter-finalists who have won all their pool round matches.

No team has won the Webb Ellis trophy without winning all its games, including pool round matches.

Statistically, though, the Brave Blossoms are behind most of the other quarter-finalists when it comes to Points Differential.

The Points Differential for the Brave Blossoms is +53, the lowest of all the pool-winning sides.

The All Blacks have a PD +135, England PD +99 and Wales PD +67.

Interestingly, the largest PD is with the Springboks at +149. Ireland is PD +94. The Wallabies have a PD +68. France is the lowest of all the qualifiers with a PD +28.

The initial thought about how the Brave Blossoms can match the Springboks relates to the massive difference in size, especially height, between the two teams.

This lack of height has been a problem at lineout time for Japan. You would expect the Springboks to exploit this.

But the Brave Blossoms have been strong in countering rolling mauls, and in launching their own.

They have not been tested much with high balls to the wings and this is the area where the Springboks, a team that has box-kickitis, will test them relentlessly.

A problem for the Springboks could emerge if the Brave Blossoms can defuse most of these bombs. Their game is based essentially on creating phase after phase after phase, at pace, once they get their hands on the ball.

Scotland ran 544m with the ball against Japan. The Japanese ran 743m, and at pace. In the second half when they were trying to thwart Scotland’s raging comeback the Brave Blossoms played out a 21-phases of play.

Springboks flyhalf Handre Pollard. (Photo by Mark Tantrum/Getty Images)

Scotland was ultimately knackered with all the running required to keep their defensive line intact.

So the Springboks could be digging their own grave by kicking the ball away to the Brave Blossoms for the home side to run it back at them, at high speed.

The other factor that could help the Brave Blossoms is that tall players, which is most of the Springboks pack, have been at a disadvantage, as the Wallabies have discovered, with the head-high rulings brought in for this World Cup tournament.

The reality, however, is that they are going to struggle to win their first ever quarter-final contest.

The leading match predictor, Rugby World Cup Power Rankings, gives Japan only a 24 per cent chance of defeating South Africa.

Wales is given an 82 per cent chance of defeating France.

New Zealand is given a 70 per cent chance of defeating Ireland.

England is given a 75 per cent chance of defeating Australia.

Whatever happens, even if the Brave Blossoms get overwhelmed by the Springboks, Japan has done more than enough to now be regarded as a fully-fledged top tier rugby nation.

The latest World Rankings confirm this assertion:
1. New Zealand 90.98
2. Wales 88.87
3. England 88.13
4. Ireland 85.93
5. South Africa 85.75
6. Australia 83.52
7. Japan 82.08
8. France 81.38
9. Scotland 79.23
10.Argentina 78.31

It is clear from this table and even more so from their play during this World Cup tournament that Japan now must be invited to join the Rugby Championship.

They will bring an enthusiasm for the running game that the tournament needs. And, importantly, Japan will bring to the tournament a commercial clout that rugby is lacking.

Rugby in Japan is centred in the universities on an amateur level, and in the big worldwide corporations at the professional level.

These corporations run teams and academies in Japan’s national competition. They would relish the business opportunities created by aligning their companies with three iconic and World Cup-winning rugby teams, the Springboks, the Wallabies and the All Blacks.

The Brave Blossoms coming into The Rugby Championship, no matter what happens now in the World Cup tournament, is the commercial and playing break-through rugby in the southern hemisphere needs.

Owara seru (Get it done).