Steve O’Keefe is a far better spin option than leggie Mitchell Swepson, who is a chance to debut for Australia tomorrow in the third Test against New Zealand.
Swepson has had a good start to this Sheffield Shield season with 12 wickets at 27. Yet in the three years prior to that the Queenslander averaged 40 in first-class cricket and conceded a whopping four runs per over.
While Swepson has shown improvement in this Shield campaign, it is a small sample size which is less relevant than the three years of poor form that preceded it.
Bowling leg spin in the Shield is a heinously difficult task, which is why there have been so few even mildly successful wrist spinners in Australian domestic cricket in the 25 years I’ve followed it. Yet that pales in comparison to the challenge of bowling wrist spin at Test level.
Of the top 30 Test wicket-takers in the past decade there were nine finger spinners and only one wrist spinner – Pakistan’s Yasir Shah. Yasir is a vastly superior leggie to Swepson, yet even he has found Test cricket to be hard work.
Mitchell Swepson (Michael Dodge/Getty Images)
While he dominates at home in the UAE, Yasir has averaged a hefty 38 on the road. His nightmare venue has been Australia, where he has been obliterated, averaging 89 from his five Tests.
The extreme difficulty of bowling wrist spin in Tests is underlined by the fact that every major Test nation bar Pakistan uses a finger spinner as their first-choice option. That’s because against elite Test batsmen spinners must be ceaselessly accurate. The precision required to build pressure against these high-quality strokemakers is very, very rare among wrist spinners.
Even mediocre finger spinners tend to be more accurate than good wrist spinners. And nowhere is precision more important for Test spinners than in Asia, which is where Australia tour next.
Swepson’s inclusion in the squad for the third Test against New Zealand suggests he’s the frontrunner to partner Lyon in Australia’s next Test series in Bangladesh, where the Aussies will almost certainly play two spinners.
With Bangladesh superstar Shakib Al Hasan to miss that contest, it is a golden chance for Australia to win their first series in Asia since 2011. But Bangladesh will remain dangerous, so for Australia to triumph they first and foremost will need to nail their selections.
As I stated above, in Asia being accurate is the single most important attribute for a spinner. Whereas in Australia spinners need to rip the ball hard to earn deceptive flight, sharp bounce and generous turn to be effective, in Asia the pitch does a lot more of the work.
The sharper turn and natural variation offered by Asian pitches means spinners don’t have to get heavy revolutions on the ball; they just need to hit the right area over and over again, with slight adjustments in pace and trajectory, and let the pitch play tricks. This is why Indian Ravi Jadeja and retired Sri Lankan Rangana Herath are so hugely successful in Asia despite struggling elsewhere.
Neither of those men possess challenging variations and neither gives the ball a big rip. Their strength is their ability to land the ball on a 50-cent piece at will while tinkering with their release points and flight. On Asian pitches they can bowl two identical balls but one turns and the other skids on straight. The batsman in this case has no ability to predict how these deliveries will behave.
By landing a massive volume of balls in the right area bowlers like Jadeja, Herath, Shakib and Ravi Ashwin maximise the advantage offered by this natural variation, whereas leg spinners spray the ball around the pitch too much to capitalise on that.
This is why Swepson is not nearly as appealing an option to play in Bangladesh as veteran O’Keefe, who was also the obvious choice to be in the squad for the SCG, his home ground. The 35-year-old is in hot form, with 14 wickets at 18 so far this Shield season.
Crucially O’Keefe has significant experience in Asia, having taken 28 wickets at 30 from his seven Tests there. With a very similar bowling style to Herath, he is tailor-made for Asian conditions. The New South Welshman doesn’t rip the ball or boast befuddling variations; he is just relentlessly accurate.
There is a popular narrative that O’Keefe’s Test career was ended by his offensive behaviour at the NSW Cricket awards night in April 2017. Yet he played for Australia in Bangladesh just five months later. If Cricket Australia were happy to pick him then, it makes no sense that he is not still Australia’s second-choice spinner.
Not only has he been excellent in his brief Test career, but O’Keefe also boasts a vastly superior Shield record than Swepson. The leggie has taken 95 wickets at 37 in the Shield compared to O’Keefe’s 208 wickets at 25. O’Keefe is more experienced, is better suited to bowling in Asia and has the superior short-term and long-term Shield form.
So why exactly is Swepson in Australia’s Test squad ahead of O’Keefe?
qwetzen
Roar Rookie
DTM said: Finally, as pointed out by someone previously (I think it was Ronan), it’s a myth that Sydney suits spinners. Sydney Test 2019/20: N Lyon - 5/68 & 5/50. :stoked:
Chris Kettlewell
Roar Guru
Such statements aren’t particularly helpful. You like to think he would have got smashed. But, of course, there is know way to prove such a statement either way so you can just make it with impunity. One fact we do know is that the Sheffield shield has been consistently one of the toughest places for spinners to bowl over many years. It’s one reason we are struggling to produce good spinners. The lack of a day 5 in matches means they don’t get the same pitch deterioration to work with either. Certainly, in Australia, there has been a major emphasis on liking guys who “give it a good rip” over those who don’t. But still, over the past 10 years, SOK has constantly averaged around 25 with the ball in Shield cricket while no other spinners managed under 35. I doubt there has ever been any player statistically that far ahead of all other players who’s got as few chances at the next level.
JK
Guest
Ahh ignorance...gotta love it
JK
Guest
If O'Keefe had been played in Australia he would have been smashed. Much better wickets at Test level than at Shield and he would have been pasted. That's why Lyon was picked, bowls far better here as he actually puts work on the ball.
qwetzen
Roar Rookie
Chris Love said: Justifiably dropped on form? You are joking aren’t you? He took the same number of wickets in India as Lyon at 2 runs a wicket better average. It only looks better when you intentionally exclude his 12for. Eh? In his last 4 Tests a non-established bowler, on *very* friendly decks, is comprehensively out-bowled by all other similar bowlers, especially his team-mate, takes 9 wickets @55.6 and you think that's good enough to keep his place? I am both flabbered and gasted.
Chris Love
Roar Guru
Justifiably dropped on form? You are joking aren’t you? He took the same number of wickets in India as Lyon at 2 runs a wicket better average. It only looks better when you intentionally exclude his 12for. I’ll concede my statement was wrong. There been 3 occasions where Lyon has out bowled him. Arguably a fourth in Sri Lanka where Lyon took 2 more wickets at the same average as SoK but that series again SoK was only given the one game.
Old Greybeard
Roar Rookie
You seem to have forgotten how long it can take to become a good spinner. Benaud took several years to become effective, Warne got some pastings early on. The inventor of the Flipper a bloke called Grimmett debuted at 33 and played his last series at 44 and took 44 wickets. Hell's teeth Wilfred Rhodes played his last test at 52, a career that lasted 30 years. Spin bowling, especially leg spin is no simple matter and none of the leggies I see have enough control.
qwetzen
Roar Rookie
Chris Love said: Did you only go back 4 tests just to intentionally exclude the first test in India that O’Keefe was man of the match with the 12for? Nope. I only went back that far because that showed that; a) OK was (justifiably) dropped on form, b) your statement was clearly wrong.
Dutchy
Guest
Because O'keefe is injured
Chris Love
Roar Guru
I hadn’t actually looked back at the numbers and was just remembering the India series. Did you only go back 4 tests just to intentionally exclude the first test in India that O’Keefe was man of the match with the 12for? I’ll concede that Lyon out bowled O’Keefe In Bengaluru and Dharamsala but O’Keefe was better in Pune and Ranchi. They pretty much shared the honours in the 4 test series in India with both taking 19 wickets @ 23.26 for O’Keefe and 25.26 for Lyon. Then O’Keefe was dropped in favour of Agar for Bangladesh, even though Agar was averaging 40 first class and 124 in tests. At the time O’Keefe was averaging 23 in first class and 27 in tests. Hons claiming the decision was on form. Only to fly him in for the second test in Chattogram. Lyon certainly out bowled O’Keefe in that test which was his best ever figures taking 13 wickets but under the circumstances you can hardly blame O’Keefe for not being the top wicket taker with zero preparation in the conditions.
Zenn
Roar Rookie
Arise Sir Bert
Micko
Roar Rookie
The difference being Shaun Marsh has had chance after chance to cement his place in the team, and hasn’t taken his opportunities. The India series, in the absence of Smith & Warner, was Marsh’s chance to shine.
qwetzen
Roar Rookie
Chris Love said: If memory serves me correctly in only 1 or 2tests has Lyon out bowled O’Keefe when they’ve played together. This is badly wrong Chris. In the last 4 Tests they played together, all in Asia, O'K managed 9 @ 55.6 while Lyon got 27 @ 20.7.
qwetzen
Roar Rookie
Thanks Ronan – good analysis. Especially the bit where the injured O'K is a better pick than Swepson. Is Swepson another example of Aussie selection bias? "bias" towards what? O’Keefe has done well in the few chances he’s been given in Tests so far. No he hasn't. Unless you mean that he's done as well with the ball as he has with the bat. And what of Aston Agar – isn’t he also a better spin option that Swepson? No. Most pundits prefer a spinner who actually spins the ball.
Waxhead
Roar Rookie
Thanks Ronan - good analysis. Is Swepson another example of Aussie selection bias? O'Keefe has done well in the few chances he's been given in Tests so far. And what of Aston Agar - isn't he also a better spin option that Swepson?
qwetzen
Roar Rookie
3 R M said; "Swepson probably won’t clean up in the subcontinent...". I doubt he'd even achieve 'mediocre', but that'd be due to my long-held belief that traditional leggies are pretty useless in the s-c, especially India. They're too slow through the air and even relatively slower off the pitch/dust. The only consistently successful leggies of any kind I can recall in India were Kumble & Chandresakar, both of whom were more slow medium than leggie.
qwetzen
Roar Rookie
Many others seem to manage zero.
qwetzen
Roar Rookie
What about J Richardson?
qwetzen
Roar Rookie
Popey, I agree wholeheartedly. His age shouldn't be held against him. cheers Shaun Marsh
Chris Kettlewell
Roar Guru
I’m not arguing against SOK. I feel he’s been very badly done by as far as test selection goes because of the desire to have someone who “gives it a real rip” a bit more. I think that’s a big part of it. It seems that in Australia a spinners value is judged more by how much turn he gets rather than how many wickets he takes. The summer before the last tour of India was very close to SOK replacing Lyon. Lyon had been really struggling and the belief was that he was about to be dropped for SOK, but then SOK picked up an injury just before that test and Lyon got a lifeline. He then started bowling just slightly better, though still not great. They went to the tour of India with very much the thought that it could almost be a bowl off for the #1 spinners spot. SOK ran through India for 12 wickets in the first test, but then he struggled for the rest of that series and Lyon outbowled him in the other three tests as things finally clicked for him on bowling spin in the sub continent. And the rest is history. Lyon is now considered immovable.