New Zealand’s slide down the Test rankings will continue when they are beaten at home by India next month.
That two-Test series is a chance for the Kiwis to bounce back from their 3-0 thrashing in Australia, which put a major dent in their reputation and saw them lose their number two ICC ranking to the Aussies.
It also looms as a gilded opportunity for the world’s No.1 Test team to show they’re a genuine force away from home after their series win in Australia last summer.
The Kiwis will cop another humbling, with India better in every department.
The tourists have a superior batting line-up, a much more dynamic pace unit, and a pair of elite spinners to choose from in Ravi Jadeja and Ravi Ashwin.
Kane Williamson’s side will battle what appears to be a major mental block playing against the strongest Test teams.
Stretching back to late 2013, New Zealand have an excellent 27-17 win-loss record. Yet they have a horrendous record against the three strongest teams of that period – India, South Africa and Australia – winning just one of 18.
On paper, they are a much better team than that awful record suggests. But, for whatever reason, the Kiwis simply cannot produce their best against those top teams.
Jeet Raval (AAP Image/Richard Wainwright)
After being torn apart by Australia, New Zealand will not have the belief and composure to beat a hugely intimidating side led by megastar Virat Kohli.
The batting line-up was obliterated by the Australian attack. Well, the bad news is that India’s bowling unit is every bit as good. In fact, they outbowled the Aussies Down Under last summer.
In Jasprit Bumrah, India have a spearhead who is just as quick, accurate and skilful as Pat Cummins. Bumrah’s record to date is extraordinary – 62 wickets at 19 without playing a single Test at home. Like Cummins, he has the ability to excel on any kind of pitch with any brand of ball.
His offsider, Mohammad Shami, now deserves to be mentioned alongside the likes of Cummins, Bumrah, Kagiso Rabada and James Anderson as an elite quick. In his past 20 Tests, Shami has snared 80 wickets at 22, and in that time has excelled with the Kookaburra ball in Australia and South Africa, with 31 wickets at 22.
Then there’s beanpole seamer Ishant Sharma, who is also on a long hot-streak. In the past two years, Ishant has grabbed 66 wickets at 19, and has been very good in Australia, SA and England.
Indian paceman Ishant Sharma (AFP PHOTO / William WEST)
India also have the luxury of being able to play five bowlers due to the hot batting form of quality spinner Jadeja. The left-armer, who bowled nicely in Australia last summer, is now arguably the world’s best Test all-rounder.
In the past four years, Jadeja has averaged 46 with the bat and 25 with the ball. India can afford to bat him at seven, which means they can build a terrifying five-man attack by either adding star off-spinner Ashwin or a fourth paceman.
In fast, skiddy quick Umesh Yadav and classical swing-bowler Bhuvneshwar Kumar, India have two strong pace options behind their own Big Three of Bumrah, Shami and Sharma.
Yadav is also in blistering touch, having taken 74 wickets at 22 over the past three years. Kumar, meanwhile, has been good in his limited opportunities, with a career record of 63 wickets at 26.
The quality and depth of these pace and spin stocks are phenomenal and will greatly worry a batting line-up that surrendered again and again in Australia.
If that isn’t all scary enough, consider the potency of the batting.
Virat Kohli and Cheteshwar Pujara are superstars. Kohli is a goliath away from home, while Pujara last summer dominated the champion Australian attack.
Up top India have the world’s in-form opening combination of Mayank Agarwal and Rohit Sharma. Agarwal impressed last summer and has churned out 872 runs at 67. Rohit, meanwhile, is one of the greatest ODI batsmen in history and is now showing signs he may be about to become a Test star also.
While he still has a poor record away from home, Rohit’s recent returns have been jaw-dropping – 1195 runs at 70 from his last 15 Tests. The last time he faced NZ, in India, he made 238 runs at 79.
At number five, Ajinkya Rahane is one of the world’s most underrated batsmen. Rahane is particularly valuable away from home, having made 2619 runs at 47.
Then in the wicketkeeper position, they can pick from perhaps the world’s most pure gloveman, Wriddhiman Saha, or the destructive batting talent of 22-year-old Rishabh Pant, who averages 44 at a blistering strike rate of 71.
That is a remarkable amount of talent assembled in one squad. It won’t surprise me if India roll through New Zealand with ease to record a 2-0 victory.
Certainly, it is hard to imagine how the Kiwis can win.
KiwiHaydn
Roar Rookie
This article just has not aged well at all :laughing: 2-nil series whitewash to New Zealand all within 6 days of play. Congratulations Black Caps on an incredible resurgence against one of the world’s cricketing superpowers. A penny for your thoughts Ronan?
KiwiHaydn
Roar Rookie
Just coming back to this one to collect and gloat a little Ronan. 2-0 win to India? How about a 10 wicket win to NZ in the first test?!
DM
Guest
This didn't age too well :stoked:
sumit
Guest
Shami was starting his career then as was Jadeja. Both are way improved. Plus Dhoni was captain - a poor captain in tests. His bizarre tactics at times cost India a lot particularly in that NZ series. It's only been the last 2 years that this pace attack have really been setup and firing in all cylinders. I have never seen an Indian pace attach like this since I have been following Indian cricekt from the 80's. The batting was probably a bit stronger before, but the bowling is the killer here. The England series was way close than 4-1. the 1st test was by 15 runs and the other one by 60 runs.
Tom
Guest
Go one better, Just, and play in Invercargill. :) This seemed to be a NZ tactic with a number of tours by India, SL and Pakistan in the old days - see some team with three jerseys on, freezing fingers (for them, in a relative sense) and dropping catches in the slips with regularity, pretty obviously not happy to be playing in those conditions.
Lara
Guest
I gave the Black Caps a 20% chance against Oz in Oz. At home against the best cricket test team in the World...the odds are actually better....30% , but if the team is fit and injury free....40%.
Gurlivleen Grewal
Roar Pro
While the lack of prep is not going to hurt them this time, NZ are pretty good at outthinking opponents and in being more patient -the only reason they could take as many wickets as they did with bowlers bowling in the 130s and a non-spinning option. Southee with his 6th stump boring line, Wagner with his bouncers, skill of Boult - this will test them. Barring injuries, NZ will be facing one of the best attacks on their shores. So advantage India, but not as clearcut as a 2-nil.
Blake Standfield
Roar Guru
I've enjoyed sticking the boot into the kiwis. Never heard anything like the constant bleating from some of their supporters or sympathizers in making excuses for such a poor effort.
Marnus has played 14 tests, settle down dude.
Targa
Roar Rookie
You might be right. It will be interesting to see which side NZ picks. I think Raval, Santner, and Henry might have played their last test. A big issue is injuries. The latest injury is Tom Latham's broken finger so he is out for 4 weeks.
dat
Roar Rookie
Which is why stated form and who is leading them also contributing to it. Shami avg 23.7 in the last 5 years compared to him playing his 5th test when that last series began. While ishant also had a turn around ever since his county stints began with a change in wrist position,plenty of added swing associated with him pitch it fuller than back of a length as he used to, new delivery added to his arsenal and other factors leading to his current form as well.
Republican
Guest
NZ are always confident at home and while India are a great team, I believe the Black Caps can take this series to maintain their status in respect of world rankings.
Paul
Roar Guru
"The bowling attack is quite different, from back then to now". Really? In the second Test of the last series, some of the bowlers were Ishant Sharma, Mohammad Shami, Ravi Jadeja, even Virat Kohli and MS Dhoni had a bowl! I agree as I said previously that India will start clear favourites but as you suggest, much depends on how they play swing and how Williamson goes at home.
Nick
Roar Guru
I think you are right Ronan, Although I think weather might ruin it. Unlike Australia, it still rains in NZ. And you can always bank on a good rain delay or two at Wellington.
dat
Roar Rookie
The bowling attack is quite different, from back then to now, so is the one who leads the team. Since virat took over in 2015, india statistically had the best bowling attack for different conditions (best overall bowling avg among the top teams,2nd to SA in pace avg, best away from home avg for pacers,best pace avg in asian conditions etc) So the quicks in particular, have been more capable and adaptable than before,under a captain who has brought the best out of them so far. As long as the current trio is injury free not really worried about the bowlers doing their part. In fact maybe selecting bhuveshwar kumar for this upcoming tour (had he not been injured) could have even improved the attack. Williamson is obviously a class act,but he is facing a team against which he has his poorest batting avg(av- 37). So will be interesting to see how he does now that the series is at home,than away as it’s usually been. The real deciding factor will be how india’s batsmen play this series. As when it swings, is usually when the batsmen are most unsettled.The lineup has changed a fair bit with white ball specialists outside rohit (dhawan,rahul,dinesh karthik maybe hardik ) having made way for those more suitable for the format, since the eng tour. Though rohit opening the batting(could struggle more than warner did in the ashes) and pujara’s form since the aust tour are worrisome,Rahane’s much awaited return to form and having a better backup opener options (Shaw or Gill or even Vihari if need be) are added boosts to the team. Still think india starts as favorites outside any major injury concerns (alot of white ball games before the tests starts so across format players like virat shami bumrah and jadeja need to be managed well in that period) though the likes of southee and boult are going to be more in their element as well,at home.
Gee
Roar Rookie
Indians play swing worse than Australia so a fit Boult and Southee combo could cause havoc. If Taylor and Williamson find some form this series will be tighter than those numbers suggest.
Paul
Roar Guru
It would certainly set up the Indian series in Australia if the Black Caps were able to even draw this upcoming series, Dave. For that reason, I really want New Zealand to do well.
Tanmoy Kar
Roar Rookie
Kiwis are very good at their home conditions, though they have failed miserably in Australia, I think they will give a good fight to the Indians, probably series scoreline would be 1-1.
DaveJ
Roar Rookie
Good points, and was interesting to see NZ won last time round, which was six years ago. The big countries seem to treat the Kiwis these days like we and others approach Bangladesh - short two-match series. Interesting to see a lot of the personnel are the same as in 2014. Similar bowling attacks, but Bumrah is a big improvement on Zaheer Khan, and Shami and Jadeja have improved. Pujara is a big addition and Sharma is on the up as an opener. For NZ, Latham, Nicholls and maybe Blundell are gains over the likes of Fulton and Rutherford, but McCullum is a loss. The second Test was memorable for McCullum’s 300, which saved the game and secured the series in a 350 run partnership with Watling, after NZ were 5/94 and looking squarely down the barrel after trailing by 240-odd on the first innings. So stranger things have happened than a Kiwi victory.
hilsnz
Roar Rookie
Oh I dunno...there were some highlights...I for one particularly enjoyed the Kiwi supporters out-boganing the Aussies at the MCG.