The Roar’s 2020 NRL preview series: Missing the four

Things are getting serious now in The Roar’s NRL preview series, with today’s article taking us to the edge of the top four, with the next two teams revealed.

6. North Queensland Cowboys

If there is a coach more under pressure coming into the 2020 season than Paul Green, I am yet to hear about him.

Blessed with an outstanding squad, Green has been unable to make anything of it in the last two years, and while injuries and other circumstances have played their part on the Cowboys, the time for excuses is just about over.

Anything short of a finals appearance in the new season won’t be anywhere near good enough. That’s the end of the story.

Luckily for Green, he has a side who shouldn’t miss the finals. A strong forward pack, a rapidly improving back line and a big year ahead for a half who must prove he still has what it takes to be rated at the top of the NRL should create a perfect storm for the men from Townsville.

(Photo by Ian Hitchcock/Getty Images)

As always, playing away from home will be a struggle, but they must turn their new home ground into a fortress and work from there.

Squad

Michael Morgan (c), John Asiata, Jake Clifford, Gavin Cooper, Reuben Cotter, Scott Drinkwater, Mitchell Dunn, Kyle Feldt, Thomas Gilbert, Jake Granville, Ben Hampton, Coen Hess, Peter Hola, Valentine Holmes, Corey Jensen, Connelly Lemuelu, Esan Marsters, Josh McGuire, Jordan McLean, Francis Molo, Justin O’Neill, Tom Opacic, Emry Pere, Reece Robson, Dan Russell, Tukimihia Simpkins, Murray Taulagi, Jason Taumalolo, Shane Wright

Development players: Ben Condon, Wiremu Greig, Garrett Smith, Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow

Coach: Paul Green
Captain: Michael Morgan

Ins: Scott Drinkwater (Melbourne Storm, mid 2019), Valentine Holmes (New York Giants), Connelly Lemuelu (Canterbury Bulldogs), Esan Marsters (Wests Tigers), Reece Robson (St George Illawarra Dragons), Tukimihia Simpkins (development)

Outs: Matthew Scott (retired), Carlin Anderson (Townsville Blackhawks), Kurt Baptiste (released), Logan Brow-Bayliss (released), Scott Bolton (retired), Javid Bowen (Northern Pride), Jordan Kahu (Brisbane Broncos), Nene Macdonald (released), Te Maire Martin (retired), Gideon Gela-Mosby (released), Enari Tuala (Newcastle Knights), Kurt Wiltshire (released)

The best 17
1. Valentine Holmes
2. Kyle Feldt
3. Esan Marsters
4. Tom Opacic
5. Murray Taulagi
6. Jake Clifford
7. Michael Morgan
8. Jordan McLean
9. Jake Granville
10. Josh McGuire
11. Gavin Cooper
12. Coen Hess
13. Jason Taumalolo
Interchange
14. Reece Robson
15. John Asiata
16. Corey Jensen
17. Shane Wright

Team overview
The biggest arrival in Townsville is that of Valentine Holmes. He slots straight into a roll the Cowboys struggled to fill last year, and with a full pre-season under the belt since he returned from the USA, he should be as good as ever.

Kyle Feldt and another arrival in Esan Marsters are both guaranteed of their spots, while Tom Opacic and Murray Taulagi have to fend off competition from Ben Hampton and Justin O’Neill for a spot in the centres.

While Michael Morgan and Jake Granville are secured of their spots, and Reece Robson takes one bench spot, the number six jersey is far less secure, with Scott Drinkwater set to battle Jake Clifford for the gig.

The Cowboys strong-man pack is virtually set in stone, with only John Asiata likely to force his way into the side from the bench at any point, while Shane Wright and Corey Jensen will be battling Mitchell Dunn, Peter Hola, Francis Molo and Emry Pere for the final spots on the bench, indicating a healthy competition for spots.

Strengths
The Cowboys should be able to play with great speed. On the back of a really strong forward pack, which is undoubtedly led by Jason Taumalolo, the other JT.

Jake Granville, at his best, should be able to spark plenty out of dummy half. You have to wind the memory back, but Granville at his best is a sight. He plays fast, runs the ball often and puts opposition defences in the hurt locker.

Now picture him playing at his best on the back of a strong pack, and with an in-form Michael Morgan or Valentine Holmes. They should be able to catch plenty of defences napping this year.

(Photo by Ian Hitchcock/Getty Images)

As mentioned, the Cowboys have a healthy fight for spots going on, and that should kick this underperforming team into gear, while Valentine Holmes, if he can recapture form, will prove to be a strength all on his own.

Weaknesses
Their greatest purchase also has to appear in this section though. Holmes returning to form is still in the ‘maybe he will, maybe he won’t’ category at this stage, and if he can’t, then the Cowboys will be in some strife.

So many of their hopes are pinned on Holmes sparking their attack, even though they shouldn’t be, and it feels like the last roll of the dice from Paul Green as he tries to get his coaching career back on track.

Green himself may prove to be a weakness. As much as he has a grand final and premiership under the belt, he has done nothing since, and many would argue that it was the brilliance of Johnathan Thurston that brought him such success. For Green, it’s either time to step up or step aside.

One final one is the Cowboys’ kicking game. While the other two are speculative at best, there is cold hard evidence behind this, with Morgan a ball-runner, Drinkwater in the same boat and Jake Clifford struggling to assert his dominance over that part of the game, despite his immense talent.

Fixture breakdown

Teams to play twice: Brisbane Broncos, Canterbury Bulldogs, Parramatta Eels, Sydney Roosters, Gold Coast Titans, Newcastle Knights, Melbourne Storm, Cronulla Sharks, New Zealand Warriors
Five-day turnarounds: one
Seven-plus-day turnarounds: 15
Best home run: Round 19-24 (five out of six)
Worst away run: Round 8-15 (five out of eight)

Why the NRL are burning both of the derbies between the Broncos and Cowboys in the first five rounds is anyone’s guess, but the start to the season for the Cowboys couldn’t be more cushy.

The Broncos twice, Bulldogs and Knights all appear in their first five rounds, and if they are going to be premiership contenders, they will want to win at least three if not four of those contests.

Things get tougher from there with the Storm and Roosters appearing on their fixture list. They don’t play Manly or Canberra until the final two months of the season though, while the Storm, Sharks, Eels and Roosters all appear on their double-up list.

A tough run of away games through the middle of the season will undoubtedly challenge the Cowboys, but that’ll be offset by two of their first three at home and being able to play both Manly and Canberra at home.

5. Canberra Raiders

The Raiders, Ricky Stuart’s side, were one of the best stories of the 2019 season.

Widely tipped to miss the top eight at best – and rated much, much worse by some (let’s not point fingers here) – the Raiders surpassed all expectations.

Rugby league fans kept waiting for the drop off, the run of losses, or the moment that would de-rail it all, but it just never came as the Green Machine just kept surprising all who paid attention.

By the time the finals rolled around, they weren’t the underdogs anymore, and a famous Week 1 win in Melbourne lit the fuse for a home preliminary final and charge to the grand final.

They ended up losing the big one, but for Canberra, it was their best season in decades, and with a great crop of core players, there are hardly expectations for the club from the national capital to fall away this season.

Squad

Jarrod Croker (c), Josh Hodgson (c), John Bateman, Luke Bateman, JJ Collins, Nick Cotric, Matt Frawley, Emre Guler, Siliva Havili, Corey Horsburgh, Sebastian Kris, Dunamis Lui, Jack Murchie, Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad, Michael Oldfield, Josh Papalii, Curtis Scott, Bailey Simonsson, Harry Smith-Shields, Iosia Soliola, Tom Starling, Ryan Sutton, Joseph Tapine, Semi Valemei, Elliott Whitehead, Jack Wighton, George Williams, Sam Williams, Hudson Young

Development players: Dan Keir, Darby Medlyn, Andre Niko, Kai O’Donnell, Reuben Porter, Tom Robertson, Jarrett Subloo

Coach: Ricky Stuart
Co-captains: Josh Hodgson, Jarrod Croker

Ins: Matt Frawley (Huddersfield Giants), Curtis Scott (Melbourne Storm), Harry Smith-Shields (development), George Williams (Wigan Warriors), Semi Valemei (development)

Outs: Brad Abbey (released), Ata Hingano (Mackay Cutters), Royce Hunt (Cronulla Sharks), Joey Leilua (Wests Tigers), Jordan Rapana (Japanese rugby union – Panasonic Wild Knights), Aidan Sezer (Huddersfield Giants)

The best 17
1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad
2. Nick Cotric
3. Jarrod Croker
4. Curtis Scott
5. Bailey Simonsson
6. Jack Wighton
7. George Williams
8. Josh Papalii
9. Josh Hodgson
10. Iosia Soliola
11. John Bateman
12. Elliott Whitehead
13. Joseph Tapine
Interchange
14. Siliva Havili
15. Emre Guler
16. Dunamis Lui
17. Corey Horsburgh

Team overview
This Raiders side is a strong one, but the notable change from last year’s grand final side is the departure of Aidan Sezer, replaced by English half George Williams.

Joey Leilua is also gone, but Curtis Scott arrives in the centres. Other than that, they are very similar to last year, with breakout stars Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad, Jack Wighton and John Bateman walk-up starts, while Josh Hodgson will look to retain his place as one of the best hookers in the game.

(Photo by Matt King/Getty Images)

In fact, the entire 13 just about picks itself, with the only dilemma being on the bench. Dunamis Lui will certainly be there, as will Corey Horsburgh. However, Emre Guler has to fend off competition from Luke Bateman, Jack Murchie, Tom Starling, Ryan Sutton and Hudson Young – Canberra’s depth is outstanding in the forwards.

Elsewhere in back-up, former Bulldogs half Matt Frawley arrives, while Michael Oldfield will be waiting for any incidents in the backs.

Strengths
This is one strong side, but it’s hard to go past their edge forwards. Part of the Green Machine’s Pommy brigade, Whitehead and Bateman were just sensational last year.

Both put together outstanding years, with Bateman in particular coming from nowhere. His injury early on this year will be a big blow, but does create an opportunity for other talented Raiders players.

Then there is the middle third, and while toilers like Soliola and Tapine keep things solid, it’s Josh Papalii – one of the best props in the game – who leads that department.

His production last year was off the charts, going for 28 tackles and 148 metres per game. They are numbers that make you sit up and take notice, but it’s the way in which he gets the numbers, with over a kilometre of post-contact metres across the season at 52 per game.

Outside the forwards, Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad and Josh Hodgson are stars whichever way you spin it, while Nick Cotric adds plenty of try-scoring potential out wide.

(Photo by Brendon Thorne/Getty Images)

This is a serious team, and one of the great assets the club had last year was the way they played for each other, defended like their life depended on it and made the most of their opportunities.

Building off their defence will leave the club in good stead once again in 2020.

Weaknesses
Once you get to this stage of the ladder, it begins to get difficult to know where to look for weaknesses, but if there is one, it could be the halves combination.

As much as it was excellent last year, the calming influence of Sezer had a remarkable impact on Wighton, so it’ll be intriguing to see if Williams can step into the same breach.

Of course, the same could be said of Hodgson, and the amount Canberra rely on him as an on-field leader could become an issue if he is injured.

Fixture breakdown

Teams to play twice: Penrith Panthers, New Zealand Warriors, Sydney Roosters, St George Illawarra Dragons, North Queensland Cowboys, Wests Tigers, South Sydney Rabbitohs, Gold Coast Titans, Melbourne Storm
Five-day turnarounds: one
Seven-plus-day turnarounds: 15
Best home run: Round 1-7 (five of seven)
Worst away run: Round 19-24 (five of six)

As seems to be the case every year, the Raiders start off with a strong run of home games before the nation’s capital turns into a snowy wonderland where fans are more likely to get frostbite on a Saturday night than care about the score.

They play five of their first seven as home games, although one of them are in Wagga Wagga, but have the opposite run at the end of the season, with five of their last seven on the road.

In short, the Raiders will want to be well entrenched in the top eight by the end of July.

The draw has dealt them the Roosters, Rabbitohs and Storm to play twice, which is rough, but no other teams from last year’s top eight, so realistically, their draw is actually a pretty good one.

The ladder so far

5. Canberra Raiders
6. North Queensland Cowboys
7. Manly Sea Eagles
8. Cronulla Sharks
9. Penrith Panthers
10. St George Illawarra Dragons
11. Newcastle Knights
12. Brisbane Broncos
13. Canterbury Bulldogs
14. Gold Coast Titans
15. New Zealand Warriors
16. Wests Tigers

Part 1: The bottom two
Part 2: Rounding out the bottom four
Part 3: Not terrible, not good, just average
Part 4: Middle of the road
Part 5: Making up the numbers