What effect will empty stands have on the AFL?

As the coronavirus continues to take hold on the world and cripples the sport industry, we are forced to deal with a rather unpleasant issue when it comes to the AFL’s new season.

We either have no games or allow games to go ahead where an empty grandstand is a sole spectator.

Thankfully, the lesser of two evils has been agreed and AFL House has chosen the latter option, which will see Round 1 played in front of select individuals such as coaches, football media and medical personnel only.

There are a few things to think about, though, when the above is dangled in front of the adoring football public who are genuinely in need of a release in troubling times.

What will the atmosphere in the ground be like, and how will this impact the game?

(Michael Dodge/Getty Images)

Before we continue, let’s address two things that might be floating around in your mind.

First, no, I won’t throw around any intentional cheap shots, such as, ‘Club A already play in front of no-one,’ or ‘Club B should be used to no crowds’. I don’t think North Melbourne supporters should be subjected to that.

Note: tongue firmly implanted in cheek.

Second, the minority of people contending the no-crowds situation has realistically already been in effect on the Gold Coast for years show they don’t understand the difference between a crowd of 11,000, which is the average home crowd at Metricon, and a crowd of zero.

With no crowd in attendance, it is safe to assume there will be a considerable lack of atmosphere. This will almost certainly directly influence the concept of a home-ground advantage.

A home-ground advantage comes from engagement with the crowd. It would be foolish for anyone to argue that this isn’t a major factor in sport, especially within the AFL, as it is such an instinct-based contest from siren to siren.

I was lucky enough to have a chat with VFL/AFL legend Robert Shaw regarding the impact that no crowds in the stands will have on Round 1.

Shaw, who held senior coaching roles with both Fitzroy and Adelaide, spoke with me to explain exactly how important the atmosphere in an AFL ground is.

“Crowd engagement from the terraces, home and away, does lift teams,” he says.

“Momentum builds. “Why do Richmond win the toss and kick to the city end? Because they come home to the Punt Road end.”

Furthermore, with less of an atmosphere to speak of, can we can conclude that certain individual skills, such as goal kicking, will improve?

We’ve heard the old adage of players consistently flushing set shots from 45 metres out at a 45-degree angle during pre-game warm-ups or during the week at training but to no avail during actual gameplay.

Who can forget the story of Travis Cloke using headphones to emulate the sound of the crowd at the MCG. He did it to improve his kicking, as he believed the pressure from the crowd and the effect it has on his goal kicking was real and wanted to prepare himself to combat against it.

Without a live crowd we can naturally conclude it should be easier for players to deal with the pressure and kick some more attractive score lines.

I’m looking at you, Joe Daniher, and your one goal and six behinds in Round 6, 2017, against Melbourne.

Shaw, who played 51 games for the Bombers prior to his coaching career, agrees when it comes to accurate goal kicking.

“Isolation and solitude should affect goal kicking in a positive way,” he explains.

“Why is goal kicking more accurate at training than a game? Crowds create atmosphere, atmosphere plus scoreboard builds pressure.

“Would a bare backdrop be easier to aim at than a face of thousands? Yes.”

Additionally, it is no secret umpires themselves also make mistakes. After all, they are only human. It would be foolish to suggest professional football players are susceptible to momentum shifts from the crowd and umpires are not.

The true effect of a home-ground advantage on umpiring decisions is something that doesn’t necessarily happen in Victoria due to there being many split crowds and no genuine home team for the majority of clashes.

In contrast, interstate teams do have an atmospheric advantage. Teams like Adelaide and Fremantle thrive on it.

The Herald Sun undertook an investigation in 2018 that revealed the Eagles came out on top of this umpiring advantage. West Coast had won the free-kick count in 60 of their most recent 72 home matches, excluding the derbies.

“I know umpires try and umpire fairly, but I reckon we get the rub of the green over here,” West Coast’s Xavier Ellis told the Sunday Herald Sun.

Teams such as Melbourne when travelling to Perth and Sydney when travelling to Adelaide will no doubt be licking their lips at the opportunity to tick off two interstate journeys early with little crowd involvement and the subsequent effect they have on the umpires.

It seems as though fairer umpiring may be a surprising positive to come from the difficult situation currently facing the AFL and fans alike.

Although we do not know for how long games will be played in front of empty stadiums, it still proves to be an interesting test scenario.

For all we know, the season may be postponed halfway through Round 1 due to a player testing positive for COVID-19 in the lead-up and we’ll be back to square one with no season to even talk about.

I know one thing for certain, though: I’d much rather watch football with no atmosphere than face the terrible possibility of having no football whatsoever.