We’ve never, ever seen anything like this.
The COVID-19 pandemic that has gripped the world has untold implications for the future of sport in Australia.
At both community and professional levels and everything in between, the future is completely unknown. When sport does return, it is hard to imagine it will be as it once was.
So what do we want sport to look like? Or maybe the pertinent question is what can sport realistically look like moving forward?
The professional sporting environment in Australia is the most saturated in the world per capita. All these sports are fighting for the corporate dollar, and in a new environment where that corporate dollar will be even tighter, how do they all survive?
In the professional male major sporting codes alone, the NRL have 16 teams, AFL 18, A-League 11, Super Rugby four (plus the Western Force in their fledgling Global Rapid Rugby), and Big Bash with eight.
(AAP Image/David Mariuz)
That’s before we even factor in the NBL and other sports, not to mention Olympic sports and individual sports such as tennis, surfing, golf, and so the list goes on.
Then you must also consider the rise of women’s sport: netball, cricket, and the various football codes.
Are there too many professional sporting teams in Australia? Is bigger actually better? Is the Australian marketplace too saturated?
The full impact of COVID-19 on the world’s financial markets, unemployment rates and every other aspect of society is yet to be realised. It will be years, not months or weeks, before people recover. What was normal will no longer be so. Why should sport be any different and immune from having to change? It is inconceivable that everything in our saturated sporting landscape can remain.
The NRL and AFL have spent the best part of two decades either expanding, or talking of expansion. The GWS Giants have had success on the field over the last three years, culminating in a grand final appearance. The Gold Coast Suns, on the other hand, continue to rely on the AFL for handouts to stay afloat and draft pick concessions, which creates a cycle where a young list mixed with a few old heads who are looking for a pay packet at the end of their careers is smashed week after week, only to build up experience then be pillaged by other clubs.
(Michael Dodge/Getty Images)
The AFL is probably better positioned than any other sport in Australia to survive, such is their financial position. Surely, though, the conversation must be had as to whether so many teams can survive in Melbourne. If in a horror situation two teams were to get cut, it would be the Suns and one from Melbourne. Which one, well, that’s another discussion.
The Gold Coast is a whole other conversation as well. The region has had endless opportunities with both NRL and AFL, and the fledgling clubs sent there have rarely worked in the long term.
This takes me to the NRL. It boggles my mind that the NRL CEO Todd Greenberg and ARLC chairman Peter V’landys claimed straight away that the NRL had three months of financial stability and that prolonged suspension of play would be “catastrophic” for the future of the game. Players taking pay cuts has been immediately negotiated. Some clubs are teetering on the very precipice of extinction.
(Photo by Matt King/Getty Images)
Which teams go in a new and altered NRL in post-COVID-19 world? Gold Coast Titans are first. The discussion regarding financial dispensation to keep it afloat, salary cap exemptions, draft picks and so on for the AFL also apply here even more so. Without NRL head office, they would not have been standing prior to this crisis.
Similar to the AFL’s dominance in Melbourne, the reality of nine teams from Sydney is beyond ridiculous. Many struggle financially as it is in a crowded market. NRL Immortal Andrew Johns said that a 12-team competition is a scenario worth considering – and it is hard to argue with his logic.
Which teams cease to exist? It’s hard to imagine that all of Penrith, Parramatta, Wests Tigers and the Bulldogs continue to exist despite being in NRL heartland. The Sea Eagles have been on financial tenterhooks for a long time. Any talk of expansion with another team in south-eastern Queensland, like a second team in Brisbane, must surely now be on the back burner too.
As for rugby union, I don’t even know where to begin. I am a rugby union diehard and a lifelong fan and it pains me unbelievably to say this, but I struggle to see how the game survives this. I don’t want to be negative, but it is hard not to be.
A disastrous few years encompassing the Western Force saga and the Israel Folau debacle has been the tip of the iceberg. A civil war within the code between the national body, member states, grassroots organisations and the code’s fans (dwindling as they may be), combined with reductions in playing numbers, viewership and associated rights sees the trajectory of the game in a dire predicament.
Super Rugby has for many years been an absolute debacle and much has been written about this. Do we just engage with a trans-Tasman competition, ditching South Africa and Asia? Or even go it alone with a national competition? But again, this has been a long-tried and often-failed concept. I could write a PhD on Australian rugby.
(Photo by Tracey Nearmy/Getty Images)
The group of passionate rugby people will not let the game ever truly die. That said, whether or not the game at the professional level can survive is another thing entirely. There is a significant risk we become a team well below the elite of New Zealand. Mind you, we already are, having not held the Bledisloe Cup since 2002.
The post-COVID-19 world for rugby union is one of significant uncertainty. Both the A-League and BBL cricket have, in their most recent seasons, been struggling with crowd numbers and TV ratings after enjoying a positive first few years after their respective launches. Are these comps sustainable? Only time will tell.
The paradox of rich broadcast deals is the demand for content. Both the AFL and NRL, in particular, need money to grow their game, but at what cost? Does more content automatically equate to better content? That is arguable at best.
The two richest football codes in Australia face new broadcast deals in the next handful of years, so there will be interesting machinations ahead to observe.
Whatever the long-term ramifications of COVID-19 are on the sporting landscape, one thing is clear: administrators are going to have to adapt to survive, rather than thrive. We as the consumers of the content and passionate fans of sport are going to have to cope with change too.
Sadly, teams may cease to exist and many hearts will be broken. I wouldn’t want it to be my team. Yet what is the alternative? I’d rather some rather than none.
Next, Part 2: what does a year of no sport actually look like and what are the ramifications?
The Ball Bobbled
Roar Rookie
To Hell with the corporate dollar. Remember when sport was played for the love of it and come Monday players went back to their day jobs? Not to mention team members truly represented their local district and didn't flit from one team to another? And what's more didn't get swollen heads thinking they were entitled to behave like scumbags and get away with it? Good family entertainment back then.
Nemesis
Guest
It all depends on how the line of credit is used. Generally, an organisation uses a Line of Credit to smooth over cashflow mismatches if their expenses have to be paid before their revenue is due. So, if the AFL season is played - even behind closed doors - then the AFL's Line of Credit to keep clubs alive might work because they'll be getting TV money to pay the credit card bill they're accumulating when they use the Line of Credit. But, here's what will keep Gil up at nights. What if AFL use that credit card to keep clubs alive, but the 2020 season is completely cancelled & they don't get any TV or matchday revenue for 2020? Sponsors also likely to stop the cheques. In this scenario, you might have a $400 million credit card bill & there has been no cash in to pay it off. This is not just speculation. FTA networks & Foxtel have said they will not pay any TV money to sports whilst competitions are not playing. And, then there's the possibility that, for the sports that are not playing, TV networks can void all sports TV contracts & renegotiate deals when the future is clearer. In this scenario, it's not unreasonable to speculate the renegotiated deals in a post-COVID19 world will be a fraction of the current deals. It's possible when sport resumes in Australia there won't be any professional team competitions. It will be semi-professional. No doubt it will eventually ramp back up to professional. How quickly that happens depends on how far in the financial hole each club is, or the entire competitions are.
Munro Mike
Roar Rookie
Just a shame for the ICC that they'd finally got the international test cricket championship schedule in place and the games were underway........and it's all ground to a halt.
Munro Mike
Roar Rookie
#Nemesis Exactly - and so for the AFL the 'gamble' (hopefully at very low interest rates) - is that the asset that is Marvel Stadium can as promptly as possible be generating revenue. The longer it drags on the less ideal as more of that line of credit might be used. Certainly it's not ideal for the AFL to effectively buy the venue over again (if it drags on way too long) - however at least operating it themselves is a big difference to previously. The AFL has given itself a reasonable level of self control in the short term. And that's where the NRL doesn't have a bargaining chip like that. Now - if the AFL and NRL can access the Govt jobkeeper payments then that potentially shaves a portion off.
Blood Dragon
Roar Rookie
what Football, Rugby League and Victorian Rules need is a National 2nd divisions with pro/rel to keep traditionalists and progressives happy but pro/rel would be expensive to implement and Aussie and Kiwi sports fans for the most part tend to be fair weather and might not continue to support there team if Relegated
sheek
Roar Guru
Sporting Tragic, I certainly agree with the banner headline" "bigger isn't better". I've believed this philosophy most of my adult life. Quality trumps quantity. This was often my mantra pre coronavirus, that we should be looking at building long-term sustainable models, rather than just chasing short-term profit goals. The naysayers would shout me down, arguing that I'm advocating 'restraint of trade'. I've long believed we needed some kind of 'circuit breaker' so we get off this crazy merry-go-round, & reassess sensibly, & not greedily, where we want to go. But even I didn't see coronavirus coming as the circuit breaker. I thought maybe something like an economic recession, but a virus is a real party-stopper! Post coronavirus, & those shouting me down for restraint of trade may have a frog stuck in their throat. There won't be so much "pay the sky for talent" talk for a while. Media broadcasters already knew that sports rights were horribly overpriced, & they too were looking for a circuit breaker. They, equally, didn't expect it the form of a virus. But now broadcasters will re-calibrate, & sports will find far less revenue available than was the case previously. All the major sports will have to tighten their belts, while unfortunately, many fledging women's sports will bear the worst brunt of the new world order. Many sportsmen, & sportswomen, might find themselves transported back to the 1980s whereby they have to find a Monday to Friday job to subelement their weekend indulge. This will come as a huge shock to the millennials especially, who have only ever known fair weather good times until now.
RT
Roar Rookie
I completely agree and it is not a criticism of West Coast. I just hope it doesn't become the norm in Australia, where tickets to sport become unaffordable and/or unavailable to the majority. It is a pity the new ground doesn't hold another 20000. Even Richmond with the vast MCG could start bumping up reserved seat prices, as most reserved seats areas are sold out.
Pope Paul VII
Roar Rookie
Hey BD. Do you know if the big clubs are always banging on about devouring the smaller clubs? And commentators taking advantage of unfortunate circumstances to put the boot into the little blokes?
Blood Dragon
Roar Rookie
Greater Tokyo has 8 Teams in the J1 League and Greater Buneos Aries has 12 with 6 in the city proper in the Supaliga
Blood Dragon
Roar Rookie
London currently has 12 teams across the 4 professional Divisions in English Premier League: Tottenham Hotspur, Arsenal, Chelsea, West Ham, Crystal Palace Championship: Brentford, QPR, Fulham, Millwall, Charlton Athletic League 1: AFC Wimbledon League 2: Leyton Orient
Blood Dragon
Roar Rookie
the problem with pro/rep between the a-league and state leagues is the gap in quality and conditions and locations of grounds in the state leagues, there is also the Question of where the Phoenix would go if they got relegated
Nemesis
Guest
"The AFL also 100% owns Marvel Stadium, the venue, the management rights and the land. That’s huge. The NRL doesn’t have anything quite like that." The AFL has just taken out a $600m secured line of credit using Marvel Stadium as collateral. Whilst this type of loan is not strictly a mortgage, depending on how much of the credit the AFL uses over the next 6-12 months it's likely that Marvel Stadium will not be 100% owned by the AFL by the time the AFL season resumes. A chunk of it will be owned by NAB & ANZ. And, like any credit card regular payments will have to be made on the amount owing.
peter ostle
Guest
Sorry The Joy of X but India is a bit of a mess: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-52086274 I think you can scrub the IPL. In the UK the ECB has three scenarios for if the season starts, based on when the lockdown ends. The thinking is T20, Tests, ODIs are the core games that will be played if the season starts. The second - Tests - will be dependent on foreign travel and so how safe will people be from other countries. It may mean the touring team come and spend 14 days in isolation, and that no foreign travelling supporters will be allowed.
Micko
Roar Rookie
Freo is one of the biggest clubs and financially secure. Why them?
Munro Mike
Roar Rookie
Regarding the number of teams for the AFL and NRL in particular - the fact that the AFL has a strong home bastion (Melbourne) is super, super critical. It's the heart and soul of the code as the historic home. So - it's a bit of a special case. The NRL by contrast has it's Australian roots in Sydney and Sydney/NSW is it's home territory - although - Sydney and Nrth-NSW is also the home of soccer in this country. And Sydney is arguably the home of Rugby Union in this country. The NRL 'bastion' isn't quite as defendable. The AFL also 100% owns Marvel Stadium, the venue, the management rights and the land. That's huge. The NRL doesn't have anything quite like that. re the Gold Coast Suns have a $1.59 million loan that was due April 30 2020, but last year they'd negotiated that out to 2022.....got not to have that maturing in a months time. The Suns are actually the venue manager at Metricon - so that's a positive in the forward projections. As it has been though - the Suns have received additional AFL grants because of the set up of Metricon, and over the last 12 months regarding the set up of their AFLW team. It's not great timing obviously. As it is - the Suns have got the foundations in place and good participation in the region. The AFL won't want to walk away from that.
DTM
Guest
No question the memberships are overpriced but WCE is a well managed club. I think there are 10,000+ members in the wings waiting for the opportunity to get a seat. I think Brian Cook has to be credited with the financial management protocols set up in the 1990's that have been continued by Trevor Nisbett. To be fair, Perth was a one team town for a long time and the supporter and sponsor base was well established before Freo came along.
George Apps
Roar Rookie
In my opinion we do have to lose 2 teams in the AFL, maybe Gold Coast and Freo. or StKilda? Then we have a finals 6 not 8, no pre-season comp. and money to pay the teams left. The AFL's goal is always to expand and most important fill their coffers.
Nemesis
Guest
Foxtel can likely rip up the contract for AFL & NRL if they don't complete the season. Already it's being reported that Nine Entertainment is factoring in a saving of $130 million for this calendar year, which will be split across this financial year & next, because Nine is convinced NRL will not play this season. Seven will do the same with AFL, but Seven might have bigger issues before then with the company's shares trading at 7 cents and they'll likely be in breach of their debt covenants being breached which would automatically trigger the lenders placing the Seven Network into Administration. Foxtel is unlikely to pay a cent to either NRL or AFL for season 2020.
Nemesis
Guest
You only need a 2nd Tier linked to the 1st Tier for Pro/Rel. Doesn't need to be National competition, but it would be preferable if it is because standards are lifted when a competition is national compared to state based.
Blood Dragon
Roar Rookie
we need a 2nd div for pro/rel which is more then likely going to be put on the back burner now plus with sports that have teams based in New Zealand which is most of them where would NZ based teams get relegated to?