After going down 59-0 to the Roosters in the opening match of Round 4, we can call the Broncos’ 2020 campaign to hoist the Provan-Summons Trophy officially over.
I’m not just making some overblown statement based on one bad loss – it’s a prediction backed up with over a century of data.
Since the NSWRL started in 1908, never has a side given up 50 points and gone on to win the premiership.
It’s my favourite, favourite statistic, primarily because whenever I bring it up, nuffies head to the comments and try to poke holes in it.
If it’s later on in the day when you read this, some of the greatest hits against this stat will have already been brought up: “tries used to be worth less”, “the side that lost wasn’t at full strength”, “there was this one year where a team gave up 48 points but still won the premiership”, “I hate logic, stats make me mad, you’re a dick”.
Best of luck to you if you want to argue the point but it’s been proven true for the entire history of rugby league in Australia. You’re not going to win.
The Brisbane Broncos stink. (Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)
And neither are the Broncos.
Don’t get me wrong, they’ll jag victories, but the Broncos can’t and won’t win the grand final.
While it’s still early doors for the season – and tenth-placed Brisbane have won the same amount of games as the seventh-placed Cowboys – the Broncos’ 132 points conceded are the most in the comp, while their for and against of -76 is better only than the Gold Coast Titans’ -83.
That helps to illustrate why the ‘ship 50 and you won’t win the comp’ stat has been proven correct time and time and time again.
Because defence wins premierships and if your team don’t have the starch to stop from conceding a half-century, your defence isn’t good enough to secure the decider.
As for how inexperienced the Broncos were compared to their opponents on Thursday – according to News Limited, Brisbane’s media department were eager to point out that their charges had a combined 999 games’ experience compared to the Chooks’ 2115 – am I the only one who remembers the ‘Baby Broncos’ phenomenon?
Not long ago, you could rely on a huge swathe of Brisbane first-graders being out – generally for State of Origin duty – only for the young talent, with a couple of old stagers there to help steer them around, getting the job done.
The result would inevitably be a team as inexperienced as was sent out against the Tricolours generating headlines hailing an amazing performance from the Baby Broncos.
But now, instead of trumpeting the talent coming through their pipeline, the narrative out of Red Hill is aimed at generating sympathy.
That really should be a concern. You don’t circulate excuses if you think you’re going to win the comp.
Besides, while they were down on troops, it’s not like the first-choice players who were out would have made up the 1000-plus games’ difference, with only skipper and 262-gamer Alex Glenn able to be considered a veteran. Of the rest who would have been selected if available, Jake Turpin has played 20 games, David Fifita has 37, Tevita Pangai Jr 74, and Kotoni Staggs 36.
That’s 167 matches in total – only 26 more than the 141 James Tedesco would have brought to the Chooks’ tally had he been playing.
I guess you can add Jack Bird to the injured list, but given he was ruled out for the season before a game was played in 2020 and he’s only featured in 17 games during his three seasons in the Queensland capital, they hardly expected him to be there.
Jack Bird ruptured his ACL days before the 2020 season kicked off. (AAP Image/Darren England)
Besides, while he’s an Origin rep and a premiership winner, his history of injury means Bird has played just 84 games of first grade since his 2015 debut for Cronulla.
Long story short, a lack of experience may have been an issue against the battle-hardened premiers, but the players set to come back for the Broncos – talented though they may be – don’t exactly fix that problem.
Ultimately, while I have some theories – primarily centred around the idea that winning starts at the front office and while HQ can generate a consistent profit, that the Broncos haven’t won a comp since 2006 suggests there’s something wrong more broadly in the organisation – I don’t have the inside info to suggest what the solutions may be for Brisbane.
So I’ll just tell you what I do know.
The Broncos are done for 2020. It’s a statistically proven fact.
matth
Roar Guru
I think we’ll have to agree to disagree on this one.
Joe Frost
Editor
Do you honestly think that sentence means we're shifting the discussion from the history of the NRL to literally every single game that's ever been played in Australia? If so, where do we draw the line? You want to talk about my season with South Newcastle third-grade Under 11s? Technically it is part of the entire history of rugby league in Australia. And if memory serves, Maryland gave us quite the flogging in the regular season before we beat them in the grand final. It's been made clear from the outset we're talking about the top-flight comp. And, again with due respect to the Brisbane comp, the BRL has never been that. It has no common history with the NRL. The parameters for the discussion were set in the third paragraph. It's not arrogant or incorrect to use absolutes in a defined discussion, it's efficient.
matth
Roar Guru
So therefore you using “the entire history of Rugby League in Australia “ was incorrect and just a little bit arrogant.
Joe Frost
Editor
"Since the NSWRL started in 1908..." Fair play to the BRL, but since that's a comp with zero common history with the modern-day NRL – not even the Broncos ever played in the BRL – their history isn't relevant to this piece. This is a stat based on the history of the NRL, which was previously the ARL, which was previously the NSWRL. The BRL is the BRL is the BRL. I'm sure if you go digging, you'll find a team in the history of New England Group 19 probably had 50 put on them and went on to win the decider. But that's not the comp we're talking about.
Chris Love
Roar Guru
I think the answer to that from 100% of readers would be no. Do I think that if Bellamy coached from 2 years ago the Donkeys would have been a force in 2019? Absolutely not. They may not have been flogged 58-0 in the final last year but they may not have even made the final under Bellamy with the roster he would have inherited. Would they be much better off in the first 4 of 2020? Absolutely! Do I think Bellamy’s recruitment strategy would have had them potentially being a dynasty team from 2021 on wards? No. Bellamy would have dragged players in for unders and Brisbane would have probably been beat 24-12 in th final last year. This year they’d probably still be 2/2 but without a flogging. Some over paid stalwarts would still be there taking up more cap space they are worth. But they’d be more competitive. Come 2021/22 though that’s where we should really be comparing Seibold’s team v the alternatives. It takes a while to reorganise a roster that was built by someone looking for short term success. The Boyd/Milford/Bird contracts take time to unwind and re-org. I expect in 2021 Brisbane to be highly competitive with 2022 a genuine title chance. Less than a big dance show by 2022 and Seibold should be sacked.
souvalis
Roar Rookie
I’d rather be belted 59 blot in a round 4 match then 40-0 in a GF and have the largest ever defeat in GF history etched into my CV.
Walter Black
Guest
Put it this way. If the Broncos had recruited Bellamy 2 years ago instead of Seibold, do you think they would have suffered a 59-0 beating and be where they are now ? I don't.
Nat
Roar Guru
Very good Matth. Watch the excuses come now. Although you are contradicting a fan who hangs his hat on winning the reserve grade comp in 97 so if it doesn't include NSWRL it didn't happen.
All day sir
Guest
Snarf hlork flaggle shcree. That’s what I think of your personalised grammar. Don’t understand? Too bad. I’m an artist!
Yep
Guest
Yep. Yep. Absolutely. Without doubt. The fifty thing is a cool stat but you don’t need it. They are broken, you can see it in their walk, their faces, their game, their coach, everything. I do hope they make it back. NRL needs a strong Broncos.
Larry1950
Guest
Exactly, the 18 year old dominates their own age cohort, gets lauded as the next big thing, has a manager, parents & hangers on pi**ing in their pocket so he believes the wraps & hasn't faced adversity. Sorting the men from the boys comes to mind. It may be the broncos now, but we saw the Knights dealing with similar issues the past 2 seasons, the Dragons young backs (Aiken etc) previously. It's a brutal test of mental toughness in the nrl, don't think I'd handle it.
Chris Love
Roar Guru
I also wonder if any of the old scoring system teams would have conceded 50 and won it. Probably not.
Chris Love
Roar Guru
It’s hard to argue with any of those points. They’re all 100% accurate. They’ve certainly looked off the pace and unfit. Though the 6 again rule has caught a few coaches on the hop and Brisbane were just as clunky in attack with Milford, Boyd running the attack and it was actually Nikorima providing a little spark under Bennett. They’re rightly copping the criticism they are getting at the moment. I don’t buy the lack of experience/leadership excuse either. They were beaten handily in the middle and that’s all about attitude. I could except if there was just the 6 agains killing them two weeks into the new rule change but it was more than that. There’s probably at least 5 teams that would be better off with a straight swap of Haas, Lodge, Flegler and Carrigan. TPJ and Fifita will be big returns for them so I expect much bigger things from them once on deck. I still think they can make the 8 and trouble some teams if fully fit.
The Barry
Roar Guru
I agree with most of that With the McCullough, Bird, Boyd, Milford money available they have an opportunity to efficiently fill those gaps in their roster In Haas, Fifita, Turpin and Staggs they have arguably the best young players in each of those positions If they get it right in the next 18 months I could see them winning a couple of premierships in the next five seasons My knock on Seibold isn’t related to his roster management, it’s about how his sides are prepared. Back in 2018, he butchered Souths final chances with a ridiculous bench rotation and one dimensional bash and barge tactics. To be fair it was his first season in charge But since this season re-started the Broncos have looked under prepared, unfit, off the pace, clunky in attack, defence all over the shop and not looking terribly motivated. Maybe not all the coach’s fault but at least some of it is If I was a broncos fan he wouldn’t inspire me with a heap of confidence hearing him at press conferences either. A lot of bumbling and not much said He’s in one of the best positions of any coach in the comp. he should be very accountable for results
Don
Roar Rookie
Looking at the examples of Fittler and Daley TB is perfect in this context. Daley came in to a side with Lance, Meninga, Bellamy, O'Sullivan, Ferguson, Belcher & Gary Coyne. No lack of leadership, direction and, dare I say, guys who will quickly pull you into line if you get a big head. Fitller? He came into a side with Chris Mortimer, Geoff Gerard, Royce Simmons and Neil Baker then next year; Mortimer, Simmons plus Tunks & Kelly. Compare those entries to first grade with the current Broncos leadership, maturity and experience of; Milford, Boyd and Alex Glenn...
Chris Love
Roar Guru
I largely agree. Especially on the fullback, half, and centre. With Boyd, Bird, McCullough off the cap next year there is a ton of room for some signing/re-signing. I’m still undecided on the coach though. While I think he will regret the pre-prepared excuses as to why his team got flogged on the weekend, he’s had to do a fair bit of cleaning up since he got there. Boyd on big bucks doing nothing, bird on big bucks and constantly injured. Milford on mega star money doing nothing. While Nikorima was a very handy player in his own right, wasn’t gelling with Milford and one had to go. Macca would have been handy in the middle on the weekend. When you look at who has been let go, who will be let go and who has been retained, Brisbane is shaping to be a very very good side. Premiership worthy even. While it may not be this year. A star fullback and centre starting next year could be all the catalyst that’s needed to put them into serious contention. A coach can’t come in and completely wipe a roster and go into the market. It’s probably why he was given such a long contract. Come 2021 though, he has to be accountable 100% for Bronco roster. The question is, which fullback and/or centre that’s going to be available next year could fix those problems?
matth
Roar Guru
"but it’s been proven true for the entire history of rugby league in Australia" Not true. BRL 1950: "1950 saw Easts secure a remarkable premiership after losing their first four matches and running last after the first round. They had even given up 50 points in a match to Souths. The Tigers recovered to finish the season in second place and upset a powerful Wests team the grand final by 14 to 10. "
Walter Black
Guest
Guess you wouldn't bet against me though !
Joe
Roar Rookie
I was one of those predicting a possible top four finish based on that forward pack. Although they still are 2/4 its the manner of the last two losses that really shocked me. I think they really needed Fifita, someone who can break a game open like he did in the first round against the Cows. Also need Pangai's aggression. I'm keen to see how Ben Teo goes because he is a very good 2nd rower and I think the added skills from Union should lift him up a tier. Fitness may be a problem though so expecting him to sub Oates in the 2nd row. Its going to be a full pack once Fifita and Pangai return. Also Boyd needs to be dropped, no question he is a huge liability.
Rellum
Roar Guru
Some players have that leadership and will to win. Look at Jordan, he had it from the get go(Although his style is sot something I would want to be part of), same with many of the great League players. I think if it takes you 130 games to get going then a club like the Broncs can only have so many of those type of players. I think right now we have a near squad full of them.