People will cite Collingwood’s latest injury run as a major contributor to their loss of form and cohesion.
Or they might cite the AFL’s farcical scheduling as they try to make this season work in the Covid-riddled world – four games in four states in 14 days.
But there are bigger problems afoot at Collingwood – problems that were manifesting last year, and are now in bloom.
Collingwood has had a total breakdown in system.
We’ve seen it before: from 2014 – 2017 we had Collingwood teams that were highly spirited, but regularly made poor decisions, committed numerous skill errors, bombed haphazardly forward, and had an absence of interconnectivity between defence, midfield, and the forward line (not to mention often within their own strata).
You can’t even say what we’re seeing now is reminiscent of those times.
It’s identical – identical of years Collingwood finished 11th, 12th, 12th, and 13th.
And while injuries and fixturing may have exacerbated issues, what we’re also seeing is a vastly unbalanced list that is constantly juggled to try and find solutions and, in those solutions, find synergy, but which only splutter, briefly flare to life, then cough back into a stall.
We’re also seeing evidence of a list build that hasn’t worked and is now showcasing in so many different ways its vulnerability.
Coming out of the 2012–13, Collingwood embarked on an attempt to rejuvenate their list, trading out or releasing 2010 premiership heroes during an era that the two new expansion teams monopolised the best young talent, which subsequently compromised several drafts.
(Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
Here’s an example: in 2010, West Coast finished last, and Richmond second-last. In the draft, West Coast got pick 4, and Richmond got pick 6.
Then factor in all the top young talent those two clubs signed prior to the draft. This is not to condemn the system, but merely to offer context of the landscape at that time.
Misses from the 2012 Draft (which Collingwood traded into) with Ben Kennedy (pick 19), Tim Broomhead (pick 20), and Jackson Ramsey (pick 38), and from the 2013 Draft Matthew Scharenberg (pick 6), and Nathan Freeman (pick 10), as well as free agents who failed to come on such as Clinton Young and Jordan Russell (among others) left a hole in personnel.
The two genuine hits coming out of that time were Brodie Grundy and Taylor Adams.
There is a sense that Collingwood tried to remedy the misses by overpaying on trades – Adam Treloar ultimately cost two pick 7s; and James Aish cost two second rounders. They also looked laterally to opposition lists, such as taking Tony Armstrong as a delisted free agent, and then trading for Sam Murray.
The Swans had picked up Murray with pick 66 in the rookie draft. Collingwood then traded a future second-rounder in exchange for him, a future third-rounder, and a fourth rounder.
Their pursuit of key positioners – from Lynden Dun to Jordan Roughead to Mason Cox to Darcy Cameron – are desperate Moneyball options to fill gaps that list management has somehow allowed to deepen since the departures of Chris Dawes, Travis Cloke, and Nathan Brown, and the demise of Ben Reid.
Outside of father/son Darcy Moore, the key-position height they have pursued has come low in the draft.
Drafting in recent years has arguably been better, but their two youngest guns – Jordan de Goey and Jaidyn Stephenson – have both had off-field issues.
Brayden Maynard has been excellent, but whereas the 2006 – 2010 build kept finding gems, this ongoing list build has struggled to find what you’d consider parity.
Throw in the continuing injury malaise – which prematurely ended champion Dane Swan’s career, razed Ben Reid from an All Australian centre-half back to an injury-plagued tall, to the likes of Scharenberg and Freeman and Broomhead, to the plethora of soft tissue problems that continually arise and plagued young guns such Moore, Elliott, and de Goey – and it’s hard to believe that this club will find the balance it needs in the short term.
And let’s not forget a president who was the consummate media performer in the first half of his tenure, but has so often got his foot caught in mouth in the second half that he might as well begin using his shoelaces as dental floss.
I appreciate people will point to coming with ninety seconds of winning a flag in 2018. OK. They almost got it right once in the last ten years – a year in which breakout seasons (to de Goey and Stephenson), as well as the surprise of unseen talents (such as Mason Cox and Brody Mihocek), and the defensive input of current Fremantle coach Troy Longmuir may have helped them take opposition by surprise. They also played with audacity and run that was consistently absent prior, and has become consistently absent since.
Then there’s another fact about that near-miss: Collingwood’s grand final record is 15 wins, 27 losses, and two draws.
Getting there isn’t much of an accomplishment.
Finding a way to win one is for most clubs.
For others, the achievement is something more.
In recent AFL history, the Sydney Swans (in 2005 and 2012), Geelong (a laughingstock in the 1990s after losing three, they won in 2007, 2009, and 2011), the Western Bulldogs (2016), and Richmond (a laughingstock of the last three decades, they won in 2017 and 2019) have all managed to complete improbable fairy tales.
But fairy tales don’t happen at Collingwood.
The club requires miracles.
And looking at where they sat in 2010 (as premiers with a talented young and balanced list) and where they sit now (also-rans, with an imbalanced list and ageing champions), it’s obvious that it’s not only gone awry, but the status quo would seem incapable of righting it.
People will counter that it’ll be different once things go back to normal, once players return from injury, once certain young players come on, et al, but in a world where a pandemic has waltzed obliviously through medical science, we should now be mature, wise, and insightful enough to recognise solutions that have become tantamount to snake oil.
peter chrisp
Guest
Agree we have injuries The Pies but that is no excuse, we always have replacement players. Our performances over the past 4 weeks have been quite poor especially in the first quartet when we struggle to even kick a goal & that is so embarrassing! Earlier on in the season we were kicking up to 5 goals in the first quarter but now almost nothing! Very poor.
Flagpies
Roar Rookie
Correct, the game style was part of our scoring in 2018 as much it is different in the next two years it has dictated our scoring. Yep has been pathetic.
Flagpies
Roar Rookie
Well I guess you and Frank are happy then, we 'recently' flag 10 years ago. So the question is if you're both satisfied then why are you both posting in here making critical observations of the article? If you're both happy with the Pies and their successes for whatever time line you want to gauge it on then you wouldn't be writing paragraphs upon paragraphs defending the Pies successes.
Flagpies
Roar Rookie
No need to take it personally Frank, it's an observation not a criticism. To be I'd rather it be a criticism because it's constructive. I wish the club would take notice and stop being so stubborn decade upon decade of forever teasing and rarely pleasing. There are so many things in the clubs control that they get wrong that costs us it's not funny. Call it criticism, observations whatever you want. Fact remains these are facts, our recruiting has been on the back of Dekka targeting what Bucks wanted to get the team he wanted. And credit to Bucks he almost got an injured inferior list (to it's opponent) to a flag. We can't continue like this and expect to contend (pretend) again anytime soon. Post the 2017 review any hope (false) has been short lived. What we do have is a great list to build around and to do it properly this time. Not holding out hope on that though.
Flagpies
Roar Rookie
Hammer. Nail. Head - nuff said. Watch for another half a decade of floating aimlessly mid table. Don't think I'll renew my membership next year.
Gungadin
Guest
Its the coaching. Go for Clarkson now.
Frank
Guest
It is the usual pot shot article at the club and coach. Looking at things objectively it is hard to compare Collingwood's injuries with that of other clubs. To have Treloar, Pendles, De Goey, Howe and co out is akin to having Hawkins/Dangerfield/Selwood or Dusty, Lynch and Prestia out. I'd like to see the Cats or Tigers without six of their top ten players. Then Les could have a go at them for mismanaging their list or how Ablett never won a Prem with Geelong.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Mark, for WHE, JT, Stevo, De Goey and Checkers to all get on the end of 30-50 goals in 2018 required the ball to get down to them. It didn’t just happen because of those players all having breakout or one off years at the same time. A lot of those goals and our “accuracy” in fact were lots of those were out the back goals running to the square almost…it is the feed down to these blokes that is shot surely rather than a coincidental good year for 5 players. The “feed” could be a breakdown in system, lack of players to injury or simply that the opposition now know how to stop the Pies feeding forward.
MarkF
Roar Rookie
Great work, Les. I dislike the way so many point to 2018 as an example of how good we were, when it was largely built on incredible debut seasons from Mihocek and Stephenson and never before seen or since seasons from Hoskin-Elliott, Thomas, Degoey and Cox.
Jorge of Brisvegas
Roar Rookie
Les , Your article appears somewhat scurrilous. I get the impression you are the godson of Mick Malthouse or something. That he was the chosen one and had Eddie kept him and let go Buckley, well, Collingwood would have the record of the Hawks and Tigers combined. I have no love for Collingwood and that was instilled in me by afore mentioned Bucks running away from the Bears to ‘play finals’. Eddie threw his toys out of the cot and set up Brisbane for a decade of misery. However, I have sympathy for Nathan and Collingwood (not Eddie). They have clearly had a wretched run with injury over past decade. Their system was good enough over last 2 and half years to be in top 3 teams in comp( and yes 1 kick away, like Saints in 2010, like Giants in 2016). The ‘miracle’ you could have written about, which appears out of control of mere humans, is players lost to injury for long periods. If Collingwood does not have by far the worst injury list over last decade to top 10 players then they have to be second. Only the Giants could rival them and only in last 3 years. Les, let your Godfather Mick drift into peaceful legend hood, writing pot shot articles for the Herald Sun. Even if you are a Buckley hater, ya gotta have some sympathy for the poor bloke, he does appear to cursed. If he had a full season with 80% of his team and 90% of his top ten major injury free, he may have a red hot go.
Chris_S
Roar Rookie
Who does the fitness coach report to at Collingwood, Eddie McGuire?
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Dingo, it’s brutal losing a GF but I personally wouldn’t prefer to bow out in the preliminary just to avoid the pain. A losing preliminary hurts too! You’ve just missed a GF! The Pies could easily have a better GF record that might satisfy Les simply by losing more preliminary finals and not getting there in the first place. If we didn’t make half of those 27 GFs in the first place the Pies would be 15-12 and no one would talk of our tragic GF record. My point with all that is you need to contend to have a chance at it. I’d rather contend then make up the numbers to avoid the pain.
DingoGray
Roar Guru
Bit hit and miss this article. "They need a miracle" with only one team with a bigger injury list yes they do need a miracle. I'm not sure what people's expectations on any Club with the injury list Collingwood have. It's no surprise the three biggest injuries impacts (Carlton, Fremantle & Collingwood) all find themselves on the outside of the 8! You just can't sustain consistent football with so many players injured. As for past results- yes getting to the Grand Final is tough. But the Pies have a very good record at getting, just don't seem to get the job done when they do. What's that saying? If you ain't 1st your last?
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Jeremy Howe isn’t a bad get either Pie-man and Trav Varcoe has given us some great years. WHE and Jack Crisp are handy pick ups too.
Pie-Man
Guest
The biggest issue with us comes down to two things in my opinion both of which are linked: Buckley not being able to get the best out of this team and the game plan. The facts are that this team based on TALENT alone is more than capable of winning a premiership. But that's only one thing. Then there is a host of elements which need to come together throughout the season such as coaching that talent, injuries, game plan etc. Our key position forwards has been an issue since Taz/A.Rocca days. Not once has a key forward since been even remotely close to becoming something more than a 1 season wonder (at best). Moore, who is the best key defender in the game, needs to be cloned and put up forward. Where are we at as a club? Crossroads is where. We are in a very delicate position as we need to decide what our goal from here is - top up like Geelong and persevere for that premiership with this core or bite the bullet and go through a mini rebuild (won't need a full rebuild). As mentioned a few times by others, we've hit a few superstars in the draft with De Goey, Grundy, Maynard and Moore, but more often than not this decade, we've missed which stifles overall progression. Plus aside from Adams, we've missed on established players from other clubs or paid way overs for eg Treleor. We need Jeremy Cameron. We need to lure him one way or another. Ben Brown is completely wrong for our team. Way too one dimensional, we have enough of that sort. But then again, if we get him for the right price, it changes the narrative there. Would like H.McKay too if gettable but I haven't heard that rumour until today. Nicky Daicos as a potential #1 pick in a few years time and young Reef Mclnnes first round academy prospect this upcoming draft picks gives us access to two rippers whilst potentially playing finals in both years. Adding an established key position forward like Cameron on top automatically thrusts us back into one last premiership tilt before my favourite player and God himself, Pendles, hangs up the boots. Go pies!
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Nice comment Bell. Even I have admitted we are done this year. Still holding hope for an 8th spot and maybe take someone out of the finals but it is a forlorn hope this year. We have just lost too many players like the Bombers too. I definitely think they once again need to look at our conditioning staff. Year after year we rank with the worst on injury tables. Still, we get an academy pick who is rated top 15 for 2021 and then young Daicos in 2022. I’d also love Ben Brown if we get him, or McKay, Cameron is staying a Giant I’m hearing.
Yattuzzi
Roar Rookie
Les, why are you so down on your own team? Sometimes it just doesn’t click for a club in a certain year. Take Geelong 2006. Your boys have a truck load of injuries. The Pies will still make top eight. Ask any Hawks supporter if they would take that. In fact I am not happy with the Pies in finals. They have nasty habit of fixing up the Cats. I am not sure I understand what you are suggesting to do. If you sack all your coaches and experienced players, you will do a Fremantle for ten years.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
I think it was 4 games in 13 days Bravo
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Frank, Les also forgets the club traded in Jeremy Howe and Taylor Adams, 2 elite players along with Treloar. I agree the Scharenberg and Freeman top ten hurt largely because of injury, but every single club has those stories. He is forced to acknowledge the success of Maynard, ignores the success of Crisp too. Les picks and chooses his targets and ignores the successful ones. I’m surprised he didn’t mention missing Patrick Cripps despite several clubs overlooking him that year because of a lack of speed. I’d love a season where we get to see our best on the park ,even allowing for a few 3-4 weeks injuries. Yes we all would love a powerful key forward. We tried with Tom Lynch. He chose the Tigers and got himself a flag. We are trying I’m hearing for Ben Brown and Harry McKay too. May or may not get them.
Bell31
Roar Rookie
Les Zig, I'm somewhere between you and PTS in my views, although it does appear that you have a tendency to 'go pretty hard' on the pies having read a few of your articles. I would be happy as PTS suggests with a flag every decade (since I'm currently 'averaging' a flag every 2 decades!) and I think we tend to under-state just how special 2018 was, even though we just missed out on the flag (and PTS is right to point out that we were fortunate in some respects to get the 1990 and 2010 flags, but thank goodness for that) I can't help agreeing with your overall sentiment though that the 2010s may have been somewhat wasted in terms of potential versus results --- I'm not sure the Pies have had their list strategy quite right nor injury management, but most of all, when I step back, the Pies have felt a bit like the 2005 era Phoenix Suns of the NBA (shooting in '7 seconds or less' was their mantra) - a small ball team probably ahead of their time in some respects, but also slightly lacking some of the essentials to get the job done fully (in Pies case, some legitimate tall timber down the spine). In this vein, one of my friends also feels that the Pies' game plan is built around manic ball pressure, which isn't always sustainable, especially when you don't have a great run with injuries, and I can see the merit in that view. As much as I don't want to admit it, it does feel like we can put a fork in this season unfortunately, as we've had some especially bad luck with injuries, and I'm not sure if we'll get returning players battle hardened back in time for finals - 2021 is going to be a rather pivotal year for one Nathan Buckley one would think...