It’s been a season full of distractions in 2020 and we’re perhaps all a bit guilty of having our attention turned from something that’s been a fixture of the AFL for the last 16 years.
We’ve had the surprising rises of Port Adelaide and St Kilda and the notable splutters of Collingwood and Greater Western Sydney. We’ve seen Adelaide reach for futility’s history books, Gold Coast get themselves to competitiveness, matches played in every corner of the country except Melbourne and a virtual public revolt on holding the ball.
But, as they have done for all but two seasons since 2004, Geelong have gone about their business of winning a lot more than they lose. As we enter this year’s home stretch, the Cats boast the competition’s best percentage, sit one win off first place and are the equal-most credentialed top four side (with West Coast).
Perhaps their perennial success has been lost amongst a year of chaotic change and uncertainty. Maybe everyone has been writing about Geelong’s chances for months and I’ve been under a rock.
In any case, I haven’t given Geelong their time in the premiership spotlight and it’s time to right that wrong.
It’s easy to forget (because it feels like an eternity ago) that the loss of Tim Kelly made them a popular pick to slide in 2020. As one of the least-hyped reigning minor premiers in history, their season started poorly too with a five-goal loss to the flaky Giants.
But even though offseason recruits Jack Steven and Josh Jenkins have barely played – joining Gary Ablett on the sidelines – they’ve barely put a foot wrong since.
Their most impressive scalp up until last week was Brisbane, but their last seven days have been superb. Off a five-day break, they put the high-flying Saints to the sword by 59 points before backing it up with a 60-point demolition of ladder-leading Port just four days later.
Their midfield machine is firing on all cylinders once again, boasting the best contested possession differential in the competition (+9.1), but crucially also sitting in the top half for disposal efficiency and averaging the second-fewest turnovers – not typically hallmarks of a contested possession team.
In fact, they’re far and away the best ballwinners in the competition right now, averaging 46 more disposals per game than their opponents (next best is 30), while sitting third for clearance differential at +3.6.
Patrick Dangerfield’s exploits need little further explanation, with Joel Selwood and Mitch Duncan also performing their roles to perfection. Instead, it’s the rise of Sam Menegola that warrants exploration.
Sam Menegola has replaced Tim Kelly’s output in 2020. (Photo by Albert Perez/Getty Images)
The 28-year-old had his 2019 ruined by injury, but his breakout in form this year has seen the hole left by Tim Kelly filled more quickly than anyone could have predicted.
After averaging 19 disposals, five marks, three inside 50s, 1.7 clearances and no goals last season, his numbers have improved to 21.4 disposals, six marks, three inside 50s, 2.2 clearances and one goal in 2020. If you extrapolate that across full-length quarters, he’d be on track to put up 27 touches, seven marks, three clearances and four inside 50s – easily career-best figures.
His stunning form is a huge factor to them being in contention again and you’d imagine he’ll figure heavily on Carji Greeves night.
Up forward, the Cats are best in the business too, averaging 74 points per game – but this is also the part of the ground that worries me the most.
I said before the season resumed that priority A for Geelong was finding a second avenue to goal and they haven’t managed to do that yet.
Tom Hawkins is an absolute gun and, in retirement, will receive more plaudits than he does now. This season has affirmed that further, with the Tomahawk again leading the side with 30 goals and 40 marks inside 50.
They’ve got a decent small forward brigade in Gary Rohan and Gryan Miers, but their forays forward are very Hawkins centric. Last season, he accounted for 18 per cent of their goals and 23 per cent of their marks inside 50 – this year those percentages have jumped to 22 and 31, respectively.
Since the start of 2017, the Cats have averaged 98 points per game but in the six games Hawkins has missed, that plummets to 73. If he goes down, has a bad day or gets suspended (as he did before last year’s preliminary final loss), they’re in trouble.
Ex-Crow Jenkins hasn’t donned the hoops so far this year and could play an important cameo yet, although this suggestion went over like a lead balloon last time I published.
(Mind you, so did my declaration that Melbourne were back last week and look how that went?)
The other big factor is, of course, Geelong’s awful September record under Chris Scott. They’re 4-11 in finals matches since the 2011 premiership – going 0-4 in preliminary finals. It’s very hard to put a positive spin on that and it will probably hang over Scott’s legacy unless they claim a second flag.
I will note, however, that all four of those preliminary final losses were either against the eventual premier or that year’s minor premiers. Three of those losses also saw Geelong’s opponents coming off the bye, so the ‘chokers’ tag doesn’t seem appropriate.
But, while the Cats aren’t without question marks, they aren’t as big as those hanging over their top four contemporaries. The Lions still have huge issues with their forward line, the Power now officially have a problem dealing with the big teams and the Eagles still need to prove they can win away from Perth.
Richmond obviously can never be counted out, while I wouldn’t want to face the Bulldogs if they get their act together in time.
But in a year that’s given us so much in the way of the weird and unusual, perhaps the ultra-consistent Cats winning the flag is the paradoxically safe finale we’re set for.
Jimmy
Guest
Good article, weird title. Richmond are premiership favourites.
Jimmy
Guest
What’s nonsensical is someone claiming that Richmonds home ground advantage is the same as Geelongs. It’s not. Geelong don’t share their ground with a bunch of other teams and MCG is not richmonds historical home ground. Geelong WC Adelaide etc enjoy a much greater home ground advantage than teams like Richmond. If you don’t understand that there’s no point talking to you
ChrisH
Roar Rookie
It’s because you can’t trust them after the end of season bye. If the AFL does have a bye, as they’re saying they will, then I wouldn’t bet a cent on them. If there’s no bye, then it’s just a case of injuries and keeping Hawkins from doing anything stupid. Geelong is a team that is, for whatever reason, best suited to playing footy as often as they can. Exhibit A: Byes. Exhibit B: the first footy frenzy they were probably the best performed team given having what was beforehand rated as one of the tougher schedules, with their first four games on 1st, 5th, 10th, and 14th August. Interesting that after a 9 day break, they struggled to put away bottom placed Adelaide. And then after a 5 day break had one of their most impressive wins this year, reeling in a 6 goal quarter time deficit. They now have another 9 day break before facing the possibly reborn Dons. I expect they’ll struggle. And then there’ll be the end of season bye... I’ll trust them again when they hold the cup aloft.
Eddie from Elwood
Roar Rookie
Eagles are playing well, and I don't think going back to Brisbane will change much. Cats are doing a fine job, and I think they have really focused on this year being the year. Tigers are up and down, they have shown they can turn it on, but not for any stretch of time, so will they turn it on again and sustain it? Eagles and Cats, Port if they can get their mojo back after the Cats game, Tigers are a wait and see from the final five rounds, they've done it before, they do tend to get up when their back is against the wall.
Eddie from Elwood
Roar Rookie
Cats at GM alphabet stadium. Either way I must have got myself in some pretty rubbish position if life depended on a foot game.
Eddie from Elwood
Roar Rookie
All the big teams have had a go, why not let Geelong have a go, time will tell re: all of the merry go round favourites
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
But just one flag Chucks? What happened?
Mr Right
Roar Rookie
What criteria would you use to judge a team the GOAT?
Seymorebutts
Guest
I was living in Brisbane in the late 1990's and even in 1999 their average winning margin at the gabba was 10 goals!! They were absolutely destroying teams.... With the exception of North Melbourne.. they didnt have the defenders to cover both McKernan and Carey.. but when they got Mal Michael ..well that was the final piece. I saw the Lions destroy my beloved Eagles by over 100 points one year.. .might have been 140.. and the Eagles had a pretty good side and were in the eight at the time. Forget if it was 98 or 99. That was the Most incredible performance I have seen by any sporting team ever. They had a left footer from South Australia bang in 4 goals from a half forward flank, they had so many stars he was almost an afterthought.. he was a gun in his own right (McRae).
Mark
Roar Rookie
The system is imperfect and it is a discussion worth having Doc. But there are very few Premiers that people look back on and say they were not worthy of their Premierships. I really think its terribly disingenuous, and probably sulking, for anyone to do so. It really serves no purpose and is a corrupting and divisive instrument to promote such retrospective denigration. Can the system be improved? Absolutely, it can but its not just geographical logistics that need to dealt with, there are the obvious contractual and financial issues to be negotiated as well. It will require the next CEO to be a special kind of Messiah to find a way.
Doc Disnick
Roar Guru
"The best team always wins the match, that’s the point." Does the best team always win? That's a debate worth having, because I don't agree with your conclusion at all. We know for a fact that home ground advantage exists in most sports around the world. Whether this is due to the crowd, knowing the conditions better, travel, etc. we just don't know, but it does exist. It's probably a combination of all three and then some. "They play there a lot and are therefore better at playing the ground." If you agree with the above, then you should agree that the best team does not always win for this very reason. In 2017, the Tigers were belted by 76 pts in Adelaide by the Crows. In 2019, the Tigers were belted by 49 points by GWS in Sydney. Those are significant losses away. The same significant losses Richmond inflicted on them at their home ground (in the same year) probably because they play the ground better. It's a shame the AFL GF has to be played on someones home deck for this very reason, especially when that home team is in the GF. Does that make Richmond a better football team when we take home ground advantage into the equation? In 2015, the WCE pumped Hawthorn in the first week of the finals. The Hawks pumped the Eagles 3-weeks later at the 'G. Does that make the Hawks a better football team than the Eagles in 2015? People like Realist don't want to accept that it's possible for the AFL Premier to 'not' be the best football team. In all likelihood, a vast amount of the AFL premiers probably aren't. At the end of the day, that's the system we have. Every other major football competition around the world plays their finals either at a neutral venue or over a best of X series. It minimises this variable for a reason: equity.
Boo
Guest
Birdman , John Kennedy didn't think the fast flowing game Geelong played in the 60s was worth praising . Yes Geelong fans have great angst over the 08 gf and the rules were changed to penalise deliberate points.I disagree that the hurt is from Geelong to Hawthorn only it astounds me the resentment of Hawthorn to the Cats alarm the Kennett Curse and Clarko s comments after the beating at Kardinia Park there not that good.
Michael Rogers
Roar Rookie
Hawkins vs Carlton Round 3 2020. 11 disposals and 2 goals. (0 goals in the Cats 10 goal win vs Hawthorn in Round 2) https://afltables.com/afl/stats/players/T/Tom_Hawkins1.html
Michael Rogers
Roar Rookie
"Since the start of 2017, the Cats have averaged 98 points per game" Not quite: Average 2017-2020 Round 12 has been 88.4 pts. (Next highest: Richmond 88.1 pts.)
Mark
Roar Rookie
I get it Doc. I use solid facts, you use airy-fairy hypociticals. I deal in truths, you tend to just go with the "vibe". My facts have proved the point.
13th Man
Roar Rookie
Quite possibly I agree with you. The only thought in the back of my mind is that whilst Port have been brilliant, their young players are still unproven at finals.
Doc Disnick
Roar Guru
"To start with the MCG is not our “Home Ground”, Punt Road is, we just play our home games there" Yeah, I'm going to politely leave this conversation. You really don't get it.
Doc Disnick
Roar Guru
Yes it was.
Dean
Guest
Was that the Freo under Ross Lyon final? If so, that's probably the only team which enjoyed the lack of width of GMHBA more than Geelong.
Mark
Roar Rookie
I wasn't talking about the finals Dean, I was discussing the H&A season. Anyway, the fact that some finals are played at the MCG has nothing to do with the Tigers. Also, the fact that Rance didn't play cancels out Hawkins but that's all purely hypothetical anyway. At the end of the day the Tigers were clearly the best team and won the game.