We’re into the final stretch of the home-and-away season, with just four ‘weeks’ separating us from the finals.
It’s time to get a wriggle on if you’re a top-eight aspirant and it’s also time to get a wriggle on if you’re a tipster.
A delicious score of eight for myself last week, given second-placed Liam Salter scored six, puts me three points ahead on The Roar’s expert tipping panel, with Marnie Cohen seven points off the pace. The Crowd are unassailable on 86 points.
This week, we’re covering all matches up until Wednesday and, from there, normal programming resumes.
Melbourne, GWS Giants, Brisbane | Port Adelaide, St Kilda, Geelong, West Coast, Melbourne, GWS Giants, Carlton, Brisbane
Looks like a fairly straightforward set of matches. Melbourne – who, once again, I tried to warn you were back – now look more and more likely to return to finals and should press that claim further with two more wins.
They should have little trouble notching consecutive wins over Sydney for the first time since 2001, before taking down Fremantle in what should be a harder clash next week.
Greater Western Sydney will have a lot to say about the Demons’ chances, however, and they gave themselves a huge boost with one of their most impressive performances of the season last week. Their match against Carlton is probably the toughest tip of the week, but they should have the class to get it done. Their clash against Adelaide in Round 16 is not as hard to decide.
The other team who’ll go 2-0 over the next week and a bit is Brisbane. Collingwood will give them a run for their money tomorrow night, but will fall short and keep the finals race interesting. The most interesting Q-Clash in years will hopefully live up to the billing, but the Suns getting up would be an enormous suprise.
Elsewhere, the tips look pretty easy to call. Port Adelaide doing anything but wiping the floor with North Melbourne seems unlikely.
The wheels have officially fallen off Hawthorn’s old man’s wagon and the end to the season can’t come soon enough. St Kilda are more vulnerable than they thought they’d be a week ago, so should be switched on enough to give the Hawks a belting.
Geelong will take care of Essendon, West Coast have to have their wits about them against the Bulldogs, but should get it done, while Carlton will get themselves back on the winners’ list by knocking off Sydney.
As for a Shoe-In of the Week, I’ll go for Port Adelaide and their newly re-signed spearhead Charlie Dixon to do a number on North.
Melbourne, GWS Giants, Brisbane | Port Adelaide, St Kilda, Geelong, West Coast, Fremantle, GWS Giants, Carlton, Brisbane
The obvious team to focus on is Brisbane, as they’ve played in Queensland the whole season and the grand final will be played on their turf. But the Lions need to start helping themselves so that their wayward kicking doesn’t cost them.
They play Collingwood on Friday night and the Suns on the following Monday and they should win both of them. But they have to take destiny into their own hands, as there are teams below them who will be pushing for a top-four finish.
One of those teams is Richmond, who not only appear to (once again) be the team to beat, but also have the wood over the Lions at the Gabba. There’s no doubt the Tigers are good, but I’m surprised the focus is so heavy on them when ladder leaders Port and second-placed Geelong have both had sensational seasons.
Is it safer to trust the reigning premiers? Probably, but both Port and Geelong look like different sides than they have in recent seasons. Those top-five sides are worth watching, as are the current eighth-placed Dees, who I was almost tempted to tip twice in this group of matches.
Incredibly, Melbourne have won four of their previous five matches, yet I still cannot bring myself to rely on them. They have two big games coming up against Sydney and Fremantle. Both are winnable and would put them in a seriously good spot to play finals but I wouldn’t dismiss either as an easybeat and they’ve got to be wary of that.
It feels most of these results will be straightforward enough, but with little separating the top five and sixth to 12th spot, it makes for a dramatic end to the season and, seeing as my team has all but locked up 17th spot, I’ll grab my popcorn and watch on in intrigue.
Melbourne, GWS Giants, Brisbane | Port Adelaide, St Kilda, Geelong, West Coast, Melbourne, GWS Giants, Carlton, Brisbane
A shocker of a round last week leads me to be a little strategic this round (by which I mean keeping to the favourites).
The Dees need to beat the Swans to keep in top eight contention. Sydney have been mediocre of late – really, for much of the season – and Melbourne have more at stake, so the latter will win this and next Monday’s clash against Freo, too.
Another Thursday night team – the Giants – should also win their next two. They’ll beat the Blues, whose capitulation last week just about slammed the finals door shut, and the Crows.
Brisbane also plays twice this week. Clash one, Friday night’s against Collingwood, shapes as an absolute cracker. The Pies still aren’t secure in the eight, but looked excellent against the Blues last Sunday and will be full of confidence.
The Lions have a tendency to lose the biggest matches, but I’d expect them to be too strong for the Magpies (if inaccuracy doesn’t hurt them). Brisbane’s other match – next week’s Q-Clash – should be a good one, but the top-four bound Lions will be too strong for the Suns.
Sunday has a pair of intriguing clashes. Geelong and Essendon do battle at the Gabba, and the admirable Dons will want to keep the competitiveness they showed against the Eagles but increase their inside-50 discipline. Can they do it against the Cats? I want to back the upset, but can’t.
Speaking of the Eagles, they face a desperate-to-win Bulldogs the same day. The Eagles haven’t been shining in their return to Queensland, but I’d back them to have too much class for the Doggies.
In easier tips, expect Port to pummel North, Carlton to beat the Swans, and St Kilda to score a win over a horrendous Hawthorn.
Note: You’ll be able to enter your tips for Round 16 on Saturday morning. Check back on this article on then for an updated list or click on this link to head to our AFL tipping hub and get your tips in early.
Rounds 15 and 16 | Stirling | Marnie | Liam | Crowd |
---|---|---|---|---|
SYD vs MEL | MEL | MEL | MEL | MEL |
GWS vs CAR | GWS | GWS | GWS | GWS |
BL vs COL | BL | BL | BL | BL |
NM vs PA | PA | PA | PA | PA |
STK vs HAW | STK | STK | STK | STK |
GEE vs ESS | GEE | GEE | GEE | GEE |
WB vs WCE | WCE | WCE | WCE | WCE |
MEL vs FRE | MEL | FRE | MEL | MEL |
ADE vs GWS | GWS | GWS | GWS | GWS |
CAR vs SYD | CAR | CAR | CAR | CAR |
BL vs GCS | BL | BL | BL | BL |
Last week | 8 | 7 | 6 | 9 |
Total | 78 | 71 | 75 | 86 |
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Goalsonly
Roar Rookie
they are incredible footballers
Yattuzzi
Roar Rookie
They have the back up players now and they have been rotating.
Yattuzzi
Roar Rookie
Is lack of tatts character or a measure off? Not a bad analysis. But why is De Goo and Dusty doing so well.
Rowdy
Roar Rookie
I'd say Adelaide are keen to work on their recent improvements. We may have been beaten-up but we don't give up. I dare anyone to say we've tanked. Poor decisions and management is a discussion point but you don't pull on the primary colours without a fight.
Stirling Coates
Editor
Hawthorn Hawks, Adelaide Crows and the Carrara Curators all desperate for the year to finish.
Nick
Roar Guru
blues are done for the year. They had their chance, they botched it. GWS have more to play for and will crush the blues now.
Mark
Roar Rookie
The other advantage the Cats have had is a charmed run with injuries as compared to their main Victorian opponents. Hopefully for them their luck doesn't run out during the Finals.
Nick
Roar Guru
Any predictions on whether the grass on the broadcast side of Metricon will survive the season? That's starting to take some serious carnage.
Goalsonly
Roar Rookie
Why are geelong so good? one thing i've heard is they recruit on character. The media talk about body sizes and ages and schools like a footballer was just a body but character is also important.. maybe more so.
2dogs
Roar Rookie
Or Bucks...
2dogs
Roar Rookie
You’re still wrong
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Says 2dogs who predicted a resounding Carlton win over Collingwood last week
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
He’s getting recurring ones now like Bucks in his last seasons. Maybe not much time left for Shuey.
2dogs
Roar Rookie
Wrong
2dogs
Roar Rookie
Bit bitter with bitterness?
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
I think Mihocek is so mobile he is more a utility, Cox can stay forward and Lynch can give Grundy a spell. As you say, if things going well Bucks might keep Grundy on the bench a bit more
Eagles 18
Roar Rookie
I agree Magpies big chance to knock off Lions. But will need a good start, lions coming off 12 day break compare to Magpies 5 days.
GGG
Roar Rookie
Interesting going 3 big guys again. Not sure it's worked last couple of games. Cameron been quiet. I guess such a structure in effect gives Grundy a rest though
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
I think Greenwood and Lynch in for Cameron and Mayne GGG. Crispy and Grundy resisting any rests
GGG
Roar Rookie
At the expense of whom do you think Pete? Grundy resting or cameron dropped or both?? Thinking the pies are a sneaky chance on Friday :thumbup: