Can the underdogs prevail in the NRL semi-finals?

By Nelson Sing / Roar Guru

The first week of qualifying finals had the common theme of the underdogs coming out with a fast start.

The Roosters, Eels and the Knights scored the first two tries of their games while the Sharks also raced out to a 14-6 lead early. However, all home teams fought back to win.

Now, with Newcastle and Cronulla eliminated, we are left with two blockbuster semi-final matchups.

Firstly, we have a 2019 grand final rematch with the Raiders heading to the SCG to meet the Roosters. While the Raiders have been classed as underdogs and rightfully so, they have done quite well away from home this season, winning eight from ten games.

One factor that should concern the Chooks is that Canberra will be looking to bounce back after an average performance against Cronulla. Having overcome the first hurdle, the Raiders will aim to put on one of their best performances of the season in this game.

The Roosters will welcome back Jake Friend while also inserting Sonny Bill Williams into the 17 for now.

One key component is the completion rate of both teams. Easts completed 80 per cent of their sets against Penrith, which is usually the norm, however Ricky Stuart’s side only completed 68 per cent. Holding onto the ball will be crucial as both teams have the capability to punish the other for making errors, and have two of the best in tackle breaks in James Tedesco and Nick Cotric.

James Tedesco (Jason McCawley/Getty Images)

Secondly, the Eels will be looking to make amends after they were thrashed 38-0 by South Sydney in Round 16 at Bankwest Stadium. Parramatta are going to have to adjust without Maika Sivo, after he suffered a severe injury in their loss to the Storm.

Notably in their Round 16 contest, the Rabbitohs scored most of their tries out wide. Melbourne had a similar point of attack, targeting the dreadful right-side defence of Mitchell Moses, Waqa Blake and Blake Ferguson. If the Eels fail to adjust, the Bunnies could run up another big score.

This game will come down to Parramatta’s defence. The issue with their defence against the Storm was that they scored in bunches, Melbourne scoring two tries in the 29th and 32nd minute, as well three tries in the 54th, 57th and 61st minute. It all but sealed the blue and gold’s fate.

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The Eels will have to remain resolute physically and mentally to ensure Rabbitohs don’t get quick successive tries.

We know how potent of an attack the Rabbits have but if Parra can sort out their issues protecting their goal line, they will have their opportunities to attack right back. Parramatta will need to strike first, similar to the qualifying final, in order to be competitive once again.

Overall, it was astonishing to see the favourites trail early only for them to come back and earn their victory.

The Crowd Says:

2020-10-09T08:49:22+00:00

Panthers3

Roar Rookie


Papi, you were one of the rabbitoh fans spreading misinformation online about a young rooster player and about the online woman in Sams case. i see you're still slinging the bs. souffs were going to sack AJ for the fox, your club eats its own

2020-10-08T12:45:00+00:00

madridjohn

Guest


That being the case, we´ll have to update the expression from under- dog to bottom - horse. The saddest part is that i´m from Brisbane.

2020-10-07T10:01:08+00:00

Paul

Roar Guru


nah, doesn't count! :happy:

2020-10-07T06:02:43+00:00

Chris.P.Bacon

Guest


"I wonder how long it’s been since the Roosters lost 3 in a row?" .....not that long ago Paul. In 2019 they lost to Brisbane, Newcastle and Penrith on the trot (BUT it was during Origin).

2020-10-07T05:48:04+00:00

Big Mig

Roar Rookie


Roosters v Raiders, Roosters have a significant home ground advantage so that may give them an edge; its hard beating the Chooks at the SGC, however the Roosters have conceded 89 points in their last two games, something is broken, it won’t be fixed in a week against a Raiders team that is fighting the underdog tag (Ricky loves this) and hungry for a GF. It will be a beat up session, so the winner will really depend on who on the night wants it most and who gets ‘less’ beaten up; Parra v Souths, I can’t see Parra “outscoring’ the Bunnies. They haven’t really got a home ground advantage given the Rabbitohs have had to play at Bankwest many+6 times this year already with a good success rate, having also beaten parra 38-0 at Bankwest 5 weeks ago. The Rabbitohs are on a try scoring bonanza (in the last 6 weeks they have scored 56 v Manly, 38 v Eels, 60 v Chooks, 46 v Knights) – Parra will need to score more tries than Souths and given no Sivo and a re-adjustment of their backline I doubt they will have the fluidity to do this. Parra’s forwards will hold their own, but the Rabbitohs will target Moses, W. Blake defensive liabilities. Bringing in George Jennings and Brad Takairangi may be a blessing in disguise for Parra. Bunnies will win.

2020-10-07T05:37:22+00:00

JVGO

Guest


It wasn't even when Brayley was injured, it was when his replacement dummy half Sorenson got injured and Tracey had to move from five eight to hooker that Cronulla became completely disorganised. Cronulla actually almost scored twice in the first five minutes of the second half before the dreaded Wighton 'INCIDENT' and the six agains started flowing willy nilly. It's doubtful the Roosters could fall apart that badly even if Keary and Friend got injured.

2020-10-07T05:23:35+00:00

Geoff from Bruce Stadium

Roar Rookie


The Roosters were the Walking Dead against South's. And apparently nodded off for about 40 minutes against Penrith. From that I'm reading they look tired. Have a good sleep JA.

2020-10-07T04:59:12+00:00

Harry

Guest


Brailey getting injured was definitely a massive game-changer. It's an interesting hypothetical: would it have been better for the Sharks to keep Brailey, but not get the try that he scored which is when he got injured? Or keep the try but lose Brailey? I think the former, without a doubt.

2020-10-07T04:05:19+00:00

Dogs Boddy

Roar Rookie


Woody I love the Sharks mate but we were pretty shot after Brailey went off injured. The intensity was there, and we pushed them hard but the Raiders were the far better side on the night. There was no ref leg up that I saw, just one team playing better than the other when it mattered.

2020-10-07T03:52:35+00:00

JOHN ALLAN

Guest


Seeking an explanation from you. If somebody is looking old is it because they are old? Or do they look older than they are? Is it because they are tired? How do you determine apparent tiredness in players? Do they yawn or are their eyes half closed? I think this is all wishful thinking on your part and part of your pre game therapy. I have no objection if it makes you feel good about yourself. Guru Gus regularly commented that a team looked tired and they usually went on to win the game. I am off to bed as I just looked in the mirror and appeared to be old and tired.

2020-10-07T03:17:55+00:00

mushi

Roar Guru


I think we’re applying “old” NRL logic. Now it feels like anyone can put points on in bunches with the momentum. I’d be real surprised to see any team maintain the score difference for 60 minutes these finals

2020-10-07T02:38:25+00:00

Rob

Guest


If the Raiders play anything like they did last week even an out of sorts Roosters side will take care of them fairly easily. If Canberra have another slow start like last week it could be over by halftime. The 2nd game could go either way. If Parra learn how to defend on their right edge again I think they can definitely win. They were much better last week in attack and if that continues I think they might just sneak past the Bunnies.

2020-10-07T02:08:51+00:00

Geoff from Bruce Stadium

Roar Rookie


I think the Raiders still have some upside in them Albo and the Roosters are looking old and tired

2020-10-07T02:05:20+00:00

Geoff from Bruce Stadium

Roar Rookie


Serious? The Raiders flogged the Sharks in the second half. Keep talking them down - just how we like it.

2020-10-07T01:05:19+00:00

Forty Twenty

Roar Rookie


The Eels have too many players who's form has retreated as the season has gone on. The wingers were a big plus for them but even before injury they had come right back to the pack, meanwhile the Fox has only got better.

2020-10-07T00:56:35+00:00

JOHN ALLAN

Guest


Hi Papi. Hope you are well. You refer to somebody who would break a contract, think they are bigger than the game plus have an inflated opinion of themselves. Sounds like a description of a former Rooster now a Souths fullback out injured.

2020-10-07T00:48:39+00:00

matth

Roar Guru


Which is a good thing at this time of year.

2020-10-07T00:46:03+00:00

Albo

Roar Rookie


Yep ! I can't too excited about the Raiders chances. The Sharks lost Blayke Brailey who was killing them with up tempo play and leading them 14-6 at the 26th minute mark when he was injured. Followed then by the silly intercept pass on halftime and then the captains challenge debacle Till then the Raiders were not in the game. Maybe the week off rest was the cause, but they were ordinary , and I can't see them getting any such leeway at the SCG against the desperate Roosters. I think the Eels v Souths might be a lot closer than many think. The game is at Bankwest for a start. Dylan Brown should be better for his first run back last week. If the Eels can somehow sort out their right side defence , I think they have a pack with the potential to overpower the Bunnies. Though the Bunnies are riding high on confidence with Reynolds & Walker in control & Cook & Murray running the pack. I think this will be a close one.

2020-10-07T00:44:56+00:00

matth

Roar Guru


It derives from when The Dogs of War were the Top Dogs in the 1980’s and all other sides were Under the Dogs. I’m pretty sure that’s it!

2020-10-07T00:43:12+00:00

Duncan Smith

Roar Guru


I think both games are 50-50 this week.

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