Crazy or genius predictions for the 2021 season

We’ve all sat across from a buddy while watching a game or messaging on social media and made all sorts of predictions.

‘He’ll hit the post’ you proclaim as the ball sails straight the middle of the sticks and you lament that the player let you down, albeit with a chuckle.

But when that player hits the post, you’re a genius. You are a prophet where man and beast shall bow to your superior expertise and rightly so. So today you are the buddies who will decide if I’m crazy or onto something. It’s all on the line and here we go.

A one-time Brownlow Medallist will be crowned
Of all current players, Nat Fyfe, Patrick Dangerfield, Tom Mitchell, Dustin Martin, Lachie Neale and Trent Cotchin have won the prestigious Brownlow Medal.

In 2021, a new name will be added to the list. More analysis on Martin is below, Cotchin doesn’t play his 30-disposal games anymore for the sake of team success, Nat Fyfe seems to be undertaking a forward/midfield role and Hawthorn won’t win enough games for Mitchell to be relevant.

The only two that might disrupt the prediction are Patrick Dangerfield and Lachie Neale.

(Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images)

Brisbane will be an upper-echelon team in the competition so Neale will be under the umpires’ noses and Dangerfield is dynamic enough to do the forward/midfield role and still be best on ground. He got votes for high-possession games naturally but the Round 18 game against Sydney was the meal ticket, with 14 touches, 3.2 and the three votes.

So who are some players who can challenge? Patrick Cripps seems to be the popular choice for experts but I am all about the diamonds in the rough.

Could Brad Crouch’s inclusion at St Kilda get reigning equal bronze placed Jack Steele over the top? Could Clayton Oliver finally shake off Max Gawn and Christian Petracca taking votes? Could Marcus Bontempelli be the king of the kennel? The Ferrari at GWS needs to get moving and Josh Kelly is the man to do it. Any would be worthy.

Geelong won’t win a final
One of the stats of the pre-season is that everyone who’s played more than 20 games who’s on Geelong’s list has won a final bar one: Jordan Clark.

With as much if not more finals experience than anyone – especially with diversity in their recruits in the last two seasons like Josh Jenkins (Adelaide), Jeremy Cameron (GWS), Isaac Smith (Hawthorn) and Shaun Higgins (North Melbourne) – if someone was to say Geelong will make it back to the grand final, win the flag or at least a preliminary final, that’s one hundred per cent justified. But this is about the other way.

If Geelong finish in the top four, the prediction will rely on them losing to Richmond and then crashing against a tough fifth-placed match-up but if the Cats finish fifth and have a tough match-up, game on. How they recover from the grand final second-half disaster is one of the more fascinating story lines of 2021.

(Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)

GWS will chase Michael Voss to be the next coach
As a fan of Leon Cameron, this one hurts a fraction but GWS have to keep it real. This Ferrari needs toughness and grit, at least a brand of some kind, and some identity back.

In the back end of the season, GWS looked lifeless, soulless and lacking direction. Not since 2013 did the previous loser of a grand final (Hawthorn fell to Sydney in 2012) make it back to the grand final but if you made someone watch the Sydney game at Perth Stadium, you’d be stunned to know this was the second best team of 2019.

If the Giants fail again, GWS will have to consider moving off Cameron. They (like Port Adelaide with Ken Hinkley) signed Cameron to a two-year extension in September and in a COVID economy, it would be a risk.

But if they went down that road, Michael Voss is the man. While men like Adam Kingsley and Daniel Giansiracusa got really close to the North Melbourne job, North inquired about Voss very early into the process and rightly so.

Port Adelaide’s midfield is deep and tough, with guys like Connor Rozee to bring some X-factor, and the Giants could use the same with the likes of Stephen Coniglio, Matt De Boer, Tom Green, Jacob Hopper and Tim Taranto as high quality soldiers with Josh Kelly, Toby Greene and Lachie Whitfield adding their flair. If there’s no finals, I’d be picking up the phone.

Josh Kennedy will become a three-time Coleman Medallist
Josh Kennedy is one of the best Eagles of all time. The gluttony of midfield champions have blessed the western shores, along with tall forward Peter Sumich, as well as ruck champion Dean Cox.

Kennedy has won two Coleman Medals (2015-16) and was runner up in 2017. In 2020, at 32 years of age, he still kicked two goals a game (34 goals in 17 games). At 33 years of age, Kennedy has probably one more chance to take the competition by storm in front of the sticks.

(Photo by Ryan Pierse/AFL Media/Getty Images)

Tom Hawkins and Jeremy Cameron will need games to get them going, Tom Lynch and Jack Riewoldt will share goals at Richmond, Jesse Hogan needs time to adjust to GWS, Joe Daniher and Lance Franklin are coming back from injury, Ben Brown needs to adjust to the Melbourne system and the young tall forwards of the competition (the Kings and Harry McKay) aren’t ready to be the number one guys.

Kennedy will get 11 home games and although Jack Darling will also kick goals, Franklin won the Coleman when Jarryd Roughead kicked 80-plus. The numbers won’t be the same but it’s the same principle.

Melbourne will sack Simon Goodwin
Melbourne aren’t a top-eight team heading into the pre-season but their fate seems to be set on Ben Brown.

Melbourne’s midfield – while suffering from being too one dimensional – can match most and with Steven May and Jake Lever down back – remembering they’re good players in the back half of 2020 – it means Melbourne have the potential to challenge for finals.

He is contracted until 2022 like Cameron, so in this COVID economy, could they turf him out?

It really doesn’t matter with Melbourne’s grand history at this point. From the 2000 grand final and the 2018 finals wins over Geelong and Hawthorn, Melbourne have been more mocked, pitied and deprived of success than anyone.

So it’s now two full seasons (coming into the third) since that run and they went completely backwards in 2019 and although improved in 2020, Melbourne shouldn’t have to put up with mediocrity. Their list management and game plan need brutal reviews and my bet is Melbourne miss the eight again and Goodwin doesn’t survive a review.

Martin will not be in the top handful in the Brownlow
Richmond have made a dynasty that fans in the ’90s and ’00s could only dream of and if you listened to the media, it was all because of Dustin Martin and no one else, which is nonsensical.

No one has been better than the boys at Punt Road in the last four years and Martin himself put together one of the best seasons ever by a midfielder in 2017, running away with the Brownlow Medal.

(Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)

However, with the 2018 medal, Martin finished equal sixth (tied with Rory Laird) and nine votes behind the winner, Tom Mitchell. Mason Cox cost the Tigers another grand final appearance and when the mountain was climbed in 2019, he finished equal sixth once more (tied with Brodie Grundy) and ten votes behind Nat Fyfe.

Richmond did what many doubted and won again in 2020 and Martin finished equal fifth (with Jack Macrae, Luke Parker and Patrick Dangerfield). Richmond can succeed without Martin doing a LeBron James and dominating every second and with Dion Prestia coming back to the engine room, Martin doesn’t need 24 votes for his team to win or even his legacy. Other players will need three and two votes more, but he does stand out.

Hawthorn will finish 17th
Hawthorn are the youngest in terms of experience placing in the league since 2011, being the seventh oldest team in the competition, held up by Shaun Burgoyne mostly. Alastair Clarkson is a coaching immortal but the Hawks are not very good and while the sentiment of North being the worst team in the competition is fair, who’s next?

Sydney are growing and had a very good draft, Fremantle have a young midfield core to die for and a superstar in Nat Fyfe, Gold Coast are adding weapons, Carlton could finish sixth to 16th and no one would be surprised and the Giants should be rebounding. Perhaps Essendon could upset the prediction but the Hawks aren’t in a good place right now.

Rowan Marshall will make the All Australian squad
I won’t go out there and say he’ll be in the side but the Saints ruck/forward has been a revolution in the past two seasons. He has played 39 games in the last two years and averages a tick under 16 touches, 4.25 marks, 21.7 hit outs, 4.1 clearances, 3.17 inside 50s and over three tackles.

With the likes of Max Gawn, Brodie Grundy, Nic Naitanui, Reilly O’Brien and Todd Goldstein in the big fight for those two spots, Marshall came of age in the second half of 2020 in tandem with Patty Ryder, and he’s ready for the next step.

(Photo by Robert Cianflone/Getty Images)

Logan McDonald will have the best season of the big three
In the 2020 draft, three tall forwards were selected in the first four picks with Jamarra Ugle-Hagan going at one to the Dogs and local lad Riley Thilthorpe going to the Crows at two. After North swung a surprise and chose Will Phillips at three, Logan McDonald went at four to the Swans and up at the Harbour City he will flourish.

McDonald is a pure full forward, whose WAFL stats of 21 goals from nine games are really encouraging. Going to Sydney on the small ground, with his power and marking ability, is a match made in heaven.

Jamarra Ugle-Hagan will be a gun, but he had a dominant Oakleigh Chargers midfield in his underage year and Riley Thilthorpe isn’t an automatic starter for Adelaide, who have got more talls than they know what to do with. Although from reports, Thilthorpe is genuinely tearing up the track. But even if he played every game, McDonald has the higher experience in seniors and McDonald would get the second or third best defender.

The Bulldogs will lose a couple of midfielders
Nick Dal Santo came out recently and called the Western Bulldogs the best midfield in the competition and rightly or wrongly, it’s stacked. Marcus Bontempelli, Tom Liberatore, Josh Dunkley, Adam Treloar, Bailey Smith, Lachie Hunter and Jack Macrae are all walk-up starts but there’s only one ball at the end of the day.

Skipper Marcus Bontempelli is one of the hottest free agents of 2021 but it would be remarkable if he left and Tom Liberatore’s deal is up in 2021 as well. Josh Dunkley, Bailey Smith, Jackson Macrae and Rhylee West’s contracts all end in 2022. Lachie Hunter finishes in 2024 but clubs were reportedly chasing him last season and with Treloar on five years, clubs will absolutely circle and rightly so.

Bailey Smith is the biggest one. Josh Dunkley to Essendon seems almost a fait accompli perhaps, but clubs should definitely inquire about Bailey Smith, especially if he’s pushed out to a wing where he doesn’t belong, like he was towards the back end of 2020. It is very interesting.