An era has ended for the AFL.
In the last six weeks the balance of power that held firm for the last decade has shifted. You can smell the change in the air. Football’s terrain has mutated.
It’s still early in the season but we’ve seen enough form to cast firm judgement on teams like Richmond who have held the AFL in its vice-like grip and have made winning look easy. Last Saturday night they were subdued and brushed aside at the M.C.G. by an emerging, young, skilful and ruthless Melbourne.
In that match the league’s best player Dustin Martin left the field with concussion. Injuries are starting to mount for Richmond.
On the surface it looks as though the finely tuned premiership machine is starting to break. They are not as feared as they once were.
(Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
The previous night the Eagles fell to the Cats by a whopping 97 points. So far this year West Coast have delivered some patchwork and scratchy form, a true mixed bag: losses to the Saints and Bulldogs. They beat up Port Adelaide and overcame Collingwood late.
They’re 0-3 on the road with an average losing away margin of 41. If it wasn’t for the likes of Oscar Allen, Jack Darling and Andrew Gaff, things could have been a lot worse. It’s a far cry from their stunning 2018 premiership form.
Even Geelong, one of the modern day benchmarks, looks more like a team that is trying to keep their head above water rather than a club that poses serious threat. Aside from the hulking win over the Eagles, they barely climbed over the 2-4 Hawks.
They lost to the Crows – last year’s wooden spooners. And it took a second half revival – 7.8 to 4.2 – to dismantle a hapless North Melbourne.
“Don’t think we’re in love with the way we’re going,” Chris Scott said after the Roos game. As disciplined and organised as Geelong can be, they have an ageing list and one wonders if they overshot on experience rather than opt to unearth youth.
That brings us to Collingwood: a team that has made finals seven of the last 11 years which includes a premiership (2010) and two runners up accolades (2011, 2018).
Their only win this year was against the rebuilding Blues and after the 24-point Anzac Day loss to Essendon they sit 1-5 and in 17th on the ladder. For the first time in a long time they are stuck in unusual territory. In 2021 they look uninspired and a step off the pace.
This year is more than a “anyone can win the premiership” feeling. We’ve already spent that narrative. Think: the 2016 Bulldogs Premiership. We thought that about Richmond in 2017 too but they’ve kept on winning. What we’re witnessing now is a changing of the guard.
At least, that’s one way to look at the shift in unfamiliar teams inside the top eight. This might become the distinct year when football fans look back and say 2021 was the year when some of AFL’s superclubs faded.
As they fall new teams are rising: the Bulldogs are 6-0 with solid wins over the Eagles and the Pies; the undefeated Demons brutalised last year’s grand finalists Richmond and Geelong and look more rounded and durable; Port Adelaide’s best is scintillating and they too had Richmond’s measure; and the Lions have started slowly but they’re just starting to find the form that took them to the 2020 preliminary final.
These teams are displaying maturity, steely defensive structures, and play with a daring that makes football fun. They remind us of the Tigers, Hawks, Eagles and Cats – clubs that have dominated the competition for the past 10 years.
(Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
If there’s anything we’ve learned from the premiership teams of the last decade is that the system is greater than the individual. Team cohesiveness and connectivity are hard obstacles to stop. Getting the system right takes time.
Just ask Damien Hardwick: it took him almost a decade to perfect his blueprint before the dam wall broke for Richmond.
But systems can expire. The game changes. New ideas emerge. Forward pressure is a big part of scoring goals. Now, scoring from defensive rebounds is powerful and potent.
Richmond found a mantra that proved hard to beat but teams are finding new ways to beat them with better flow, hunger and a new brand.
Last Saturday night Christian Petracca broke Richmond with 38 disposals, 720 metres gained and 26 pressure acts. His goal in the last quarter sent Demons fans into a spin as he delivered the final nail in the coffin.
As much as the Dustin Martin-like numbers and influence has helped drive Melbourne to great heights, Petracca’s form is just one piece of their puzzle. Melbourne was missing cohesion.
Now they’ve got it. They are scary good. Remember saying this about Richmond before they became the kings of the AFL?
To say Richmond or clubs like Geelong are over, that their time is up, is probably premature. It could just be they’re in a holding pattern and need an off-season to make tweaks and go again.
But one thing is for sure: they are no longer hunted. There’s been a shift. And whether we like it or not change is here.
HR
Roar Rookie
I'm not sure how many of those supporters from the '30s are still kicking around... So you genuinely don't think anyone has jumped onboard since 2017? The entire supporter base is made up of long-suffering battlers who've finally tasted success?
Dusty does Danger
Roar Rookie
About 35 out of 37 season - read my comments below and you see why the Tiger story is so great!
Dusty does Danger
Roar Rookie
What I would say is – Melbourne did pop their hand up for help and received draft concessions a few years back. They have had 9 top 10 draft picks in 9 years – most of them 5 and lower. They should be world beaters. Tigers have had 1 – yes 1 Nick Vlastuin at no. 9! Any other club could have the Tigers list but overlooked the players. This is what makes the Tiger story so great!
Velvet Lane
Roar Rookie
Coming back to check the author’s views remain the same after Tigers beat the dogs without Dusty
Maxy
Roar Rookie
Yep,if we loose to Brisbane this weekend we will be labelled as pretenders,long season,lots of time to tweak things and get reinforcements back
Ukraine Tiger
Roar Rookie
I love that the Demons are up there at the moment and doing it in style. But there is no way I would support the Bulldogs while there is a liberatore in that team.
Ukraine Tiger
Roar Rookie
2 picks in the each of the first 3 rounds of the upcoming draft Seems to me that they have everything in place for ongoing success After R6 the Tigers are still well in the mix. Love to see you here in September to reflect
O M
Roar Rookie
Remember Port v Richmond 2019?
Dangersphere 10
Roar Rookie
All good my friend, just a misunderstanding. Thanks and ditto for your side, I have enormous respect for your mob and think you're every chance to win it this year. And yeah if we can get the troops back July and start to build some real momentum, I think we're still in it with a good shout. People never learn do they, early season form, unless absolutely dismal (like the Pies atm) usually equates to F all by the time the finals roll around. So far its your boys, the dogs and the demons that are hot early, but all that could change in a few months time. After our 11-1 false start in 2019, I say don't get truly excited until you see it still rolling in round 19 :laughing:
Brendon the 1st
Roar Rookie
I know what Vic Park is, I was born and grew up in Darwin, how would I go to Vic Park???? Don't bother writing back, I won't reply, and if it's something you wouldn't say in real life, don't say it on here, I didn't appreciate it. If you can't have a conversation without resorting to name calling on a sports debate site, then jog on. And you're right, I don't like Richmond, I also don't like St Kilda, Geelong and Norf, so what?!?
O M
Roar Rookie
I actually think the Tigers may pinch this one. I tipped 7 last week and work on the Due to win/lose vibe and rebound after bad loss factor.
O M
Roar Rookie
Actually, they're usually right. What were the ladder positions this time last year?
Brendon the 1st
Roar Rookie
Where did they go? They were hilarious
Doctor Rotcod
Roar Rookie
I'm sure there's a couple of Toorak chaps sipping a slightly chilled fino as they read these comments with an ever so slightly haughty air.A Lord Fauntleroy if I'm not mistaken?
Seymorebutts
Guest
I not sure what the actual stat is... but generally speaking, by round 8, where ever your side is on the ladder, thats where they will finish round 22. There are obvious exceptions, Bombers were going great under Hird at the halfway point two seasons running then lost 10 out of the final 12 games and missed finals. but those were outliers imo. So as far as Im concerned, the Demons and Dogs are the real deal, and the Eagles have got a lot of work in front of them. If they cant tighten up down back they are gone.
Gerry
Roar Rookie
It’s high time Melbourne started to perform its good to see. However to see too many Melbourne clubs being successful is a drag back to the VFL and I would literally throw up if that happened again and turn off. So come on Port , Gold Coast, Sydney , Freo , Eagles and Giants and Adelaide and Brissie we need you all to up your games significantly. Don’t let the Vics ever rule this comp again.
Footyguy
Guest
I think we've seen the changing off the guard in other little subtle ways. Like Essendon has greatly overperformed. Massively overperformed. In the preseason 9 out of 10 people media pundits, just general football fans thought essendon fans was a lock for bottom 4. There was the whole narrative last year that 'rutten was incompetent and had no idea what he was doing' that narrative has been disproven But essendon have done a lot better than most would have expected and deserve much more credit. Essendon for years has been criticised for having a very lacklustre one paced midfield They bring in shiel and they still have that issue Yet this year they've managed to fix it significantly 2016 and 2017: Zach Merrett is an elite midfielder and will become an afl superstar and win a brownlow 2018 and 2019 He kind of was very mediocre, oh merretts very one dimensional his kicking is inefficient, he's not even that good 2020 kind of was just irrelevant no one really spoke of him or talked about him much except carlton getting him which never came to fruitiion 2021 Zach Merrett is an elite midfielder again, while not in Brownlow contention, at least half a dozen clubs are interested in him
Aaron Paul
Roar Rookie
not many teams can beat Geelong at the fishbowl, something that not having to play there in 2020 has erased from peoples memories
Aaron Paul
Roar Rookie
technically it started in SA a bit ahead of VIC
Aaron Paul
Roar Rookie
I am happy to let the melbourne bubble underestimate port tbh