Here are my power rankings after Round 18.
No change
Sorry Crows fans. They find themselves on the bottom of my rankings this week with a second consecutive sizeable loss. Adelaide have a problem in that their midfield is too one-paced and their forward line too dependent on Taylor Walker being everywhere.
What stuck out is the domination of the Eagles in the hitouts and inside 50 count (+16).
Down four
The score worm in this game tells a thousand words. The Pies were up by eight points at the last change, but the Blues kicked away in the last in a near mirror image of what the Pies did to the Tigers. But we aren’t about the negatives here; Taylor Adams continues to put together a season that should earn him the captaincy, and Jamie Elliott is perhaps the club’s most important player.
Up one
I am a bit confused as to where to have the Hawks. On the one hand, they should’ve lost that game; they lost every key statistical area except the tackles. On the other hand, they drew with the ladder-leaders thanks to some bold play through the middle and pulled out the miraculous.
I think they’re not as bad as they should be and the building from the back list strategy appears to be working for the Hawks.
Down three
The Kangaroos were always going to struggle to win travelling across the country twice in a week after a six-day break without their highest performing midfielder. They’re no longer the easybeats of the AFL.
The Roos were able to challenge the Bombers for three quarters with a slight lapse in the third quarter. North were able to frustrate the Bombers with their slow and deliberate ball movement followed by a skilled 45-degree kick into the centre of the ground. The Roos were able to play the style they wanted for much of the day and that will serve them in good stead.
Down six
Freo is decidedly not the way to go. It is a testament to the log jam around the middle of the pack that they’ve dropped by so much. Their percentage is atrocious, and the massive loss to the Cats at home has only exacerbated matters. With Sean Darcy and Rory Lobb both going down with injury, the Dockers also have a big disadvantage in both the ruck and the key forwards department, and this will leave Justin Longmuir with a large headache.
Down one
A faint flicker of hope is there for the Suns. It is not yet the inferno of finals contention, but the fact they can still equal their best win total for a year is astounding (eight wins in 2014 is their best season to date).
They went into Saturday afternoon distant favourites and, while they did lose, it was not the crushing loss we’ve come to expect of the Suns.
I want to call out the small forwards with Alex Sexton, Brayden Ainsworth and Nick Holman combining for nine goals and a massive 22 score involvements.
Gold Coast lost the inside 50 count, which speaks to the strength of backline, and Jeremy Sharp earned a rising star nomination. Sadly, things do not get any easier for the Suns as they face top four contenders in Melbourne and Brisbane in the next two weeks.
Up four
I want to call out Jack Silvagni, both for his exploits on the field (he beat Brodie Grundy in the ruck) and was comfortable openly displaying his emotion considering the recent death of his grandfather. Good on you Jack, we are all rooting for you and your family.
The Blues played well in a brave come-from-behind win to keep their unlikely finals dream alive. It is unlikely that they will make the finals, but it’s good to dream. Sam Walsh is a future captain of the club and Sunday afternoon was no exception as he continues to push his case for a Brownlow.
Down four
The loss on Saturday afternoon is officially curtains for the Saints season. However, things are a far sight less dire than they were earlier in the season. Jack Steele nearly single-handedly dragged his side over the line with a captain’s performance; 37 disposals, a goal and seven tackles.
Up five
That was a turn around. Losing to the lowly Roos one week and pummelling the Crows the next. They didn’t answer many questions around the faults in their game style, but it was extremely important that Adam Simpson’s men got the win with a spot in the eight on the line.
However, it was only Adelaide they beat. It was good to see the Eagles play with a harder edge, however, the facts are apparent, their game style is found out and they need to develop the smaller avenues to goal.
Up five
The Tigers find their way back to their natural habitat. Richmond kept their finals hopes alive with a potentially season-defining win over the Lions – which was especially impressive as they lost Kamdyn McIntosh and Dustin Martin. Questions remain as to whether they can overcome these injuries, but Toby Nankervis provided vital relief in the rucks – freeing up Malbior Chol to kick four goals as a resting forward.
Up two
GWS needed to at least push the Swans hard in that game, and they did for a half. The Giants have often been a tease this year, but they’ve dropped the games they’ve needed to win. Making matters drastically worse were injuries to Josh Kelly and Matt Flynn – both of whom will be out this week in addition to the quarantining Toby Greene. Now Giants supporters will point out the disruption of losing your spiritual leader mere minutes before the bounce – that didn’t cause you to drop a 35-point lead.
Up four
This was an unnecessarily stressful game for me as a Bombers fan. Atrocious defence in transition (Essendon are ranked last this season) and some low effort from the midfield in the first half led to North getting a sniff. Thanks to a cameo from Jake Stringer and ‘two-metre’ Peter Wright, the Bombers were able to take the lead and win the match.
Down two
The Lions struggled on Friday Night. The Tigers pressured and harassed their opposition and made the Lions look second rate despite playing an ‘away’ game in their home state. The Lions missed the dynamism that Eric Hipwood provides their line-up, relying on the flighty Joe Daniher – who has not been expected to carry the entire forward line. There were preciously few positives to take out of the match for the Lions faithful as they fell over against an inferior Tigers side.
Up one
I was perhaps a little harsh on the Power last week. They’ve struggled against fellow contenders but it is reductive to solely attribute this to the game style of Ken Hinkley. On Saturday, they went in with their backs against the wall without four of their starting forward line, and needing to win. Win they did.
They were cleaner in the clinches than a raw Saints side thanks to solid performances from Karl Amon (26 disposals and two goals) and Trent McKenzie (nine intercepts). The Power will be a fixture in September and remain a chance for the top four thanks to the win on the weekend.
Up one
That was a win that will reverberate throughout the competition. The Swans trailed by 35 points early in the second quarter and were able to turn the match around in the back half of the second and run out 26-point winners. Tom Papley put in a superb performance with two goal of the year contenders among his four goals.
Nick Blakey appears to prefer the half-back line substantially more to the half-forward line as he presented a running option through the midfield on his way to 18 disposals and 390 metres gained.
Down three
That game was as bad as a loss for the Demons. They won every key statistical area and had multiple opportunities at the death to ice the game. The only exception was the tackles – and they just couldn’t cope with the pressure. The Melbourne midfield dominated with Christian Petracca, Jack Viney and Clayton Oliver all recording more than 30 disposals, but the glut of possessions was not translated into goals.
I can’t help but wonder if there’s a mental problem; they seem incapable of getting up against inferior opposition.
Up one
They’re up because they won. It was good to see Jamarra Ugle-Hagan get on the board with three goals among his eight possessions. He will be substantially better for the run. The Bulldogs midfield group was massive, with 100 possessions among Jackson Macrae, Bailey Smith, and Marcus Bontempelli leading to wins in the territory and the inside 50 battles.
It speaks volumes of the Suns that they forced the Bulldogs to fight for the win right at the death.
Up one
The Cats have now tied up second with a dominant win over an insipid Fremantle outfit in Perth. They were still without Jeremy Cameron, so it fell to Patrick Dangerfield as a pseudo key forward and Tom Hawkins to score heavily with seven goals in a dominant display.
Luke Dalhaus played his best game of the season with eight tackles and a goal, which is precisely what you want a small forward to do. Sam Menegola and Isaac Smith continue to be exceptionally damaging as pure wingmen rather than the midfielders the All Australian selectors insist on putting in that position.
Kick to Kick
Roar Rookie
You’re right that power rankings and standings are different - and a team can be hot and a dangerous opponent though low on the ladder - or going through a slump even though they’re still ok on the ladder. But you’re quite wrong to say that recognising and calibrating those changes is “emotive” and not based on data. What proper power ranking does is see the signs of those shifts in the data and in probability calculations even before others notice. The long-standing guru of ranking systems in the US , Jeff Sagarin who the Bleacher Report called the most powerful man in US Sport, is infamous for believing emotions should never come into it - just the evolving data. For me that’s too much, but I do like analysts like Leigh Montagna. He doesn’t do power rankings but this week he picked up that the Bulldogs have the worst record in the League for scores against once ball enters their defensive 50. It’s the kind of stat that detects frailties before others do.
Cat
Roar Guru
Don’t tell me about the US mate. I was born, raised and lived there for 34 years. I grew up on NFL, MLB, NBA, NHL, college versions of those and NASCAR. I watched them all. I know all about power rankings and they are not statistically based. Power rankings are emotive, “what have you done for me lately’ type rankings. They should reflect how a team is doing ‘now’ and the recent past. Results from months ago should have no bearing. If you want a season long statistical ranking look no further than the ladder (or standings in US terminology). What is the point of rankings that come out the same as what is already there? Some of the first power rankings to gain popularity were in baseball. With a 162 game season, standings often don’t reflect how a team is travelling ‘right now’. A baseball team can be anchored to the bottom of the standings but still go on a 12 game winning streak. A power ranking should reflect that team is a more dangerous opponent ‘right now’ than the standings would indicated. Similarly a team at the top of the standing can be in a 3 and 18 funk. Great time to be lucky enough to be scheduled to play them. Standings wouldn’t show that at all, a power ranking should.
Kick to Kick
Roar Rookie
You clearly don’t know the history or function of power ranking. It’s a US sports invention that aims to use data and analysis to rate teams not just by results but with a deeper look at performance and underlying metrics. There are several methods using systems like ELO but at the heart of true power ranking are probability statistics. In any power ranking a team above another team is calculated to have a greater probability of victory if those two teams meet in the near future. So the whole basis of power rankings is predictive.
Cat
Roar Guru
As I’ve said before this isn’t a traditional power ranking which is supposed to be useful for predicting results. No. That is not what a traditional power ranking is about at all. It has nothing to do with predicting anything.
George Apps
Roar Rookie
Rooting for Jack?
Charlie Keegan
Roar Guru
True but I think the motivation for Adelaide to tank is two fold, 1 is that the nominal pick one is from south Australia, and the second thing is there’s a lack of key position talent is causing people to under rated the draft class as a whole
Dangersphere 10
Roar Rookie
Possibly, but is worth giving up the momentum they were building, as well as that "winning culture" which is so hard to manufacture? North probably realise the only way forward from here is up, and they have more than enough youngsters now, no more draft picks, get a good mature trade or two and accelerate the rebuild for a genuine crack by 2024-25. They need wins to build belief, which they are now banking. Suddenly they don't look the worst side in the league, far from it in fact.
Windrince
Roar Rookie
Yep.
Jakarta Fan
Roar Rookie
Sorry Chucka, but your weekly variations are too extreme. How can a club go up or down 4, 5, or 6 places in one week? I can understand 1, 2, or 3 but to go up to 6!!!? Anyway, the Bombers are too high at 7, and even though they are in the 8 I would still rate them a 9 at the moment. If they defeat the Giants move them to 7th. If they lose I'd go down 1 to 10, but based on what you are presenting you might drop them by 6. Sorry mate, but usually I really enjoy your assessments but I think for this segment you need a little less heart and a little more mind.
Kick to Kick
Roar Rookie
As I’ve said before this isn’t a traditional power ranking which is supposed to be useful for predicting results. This more a barometer of wildly swinging public sentiment. A kind of madness of the crowd rushing this way and that in column form. But if you take it for what it is it’s kind of fun. Carlton surges up the ladder with an uninspiring victory over a bottom four team. Ditto the Eagles and the Bombers. St Kilda plummets because it came close to beating a team well above it on the real ladder. North Melbourne aren’t exactly winners but stay above the team that tied with the ladder leaders because -well-Norths are plucky. The rankings aren’t much good for rating teams but they’re a very accurate reflection of the fluctuating public zeitgeist about respective clubs.
O M
Roar Rookie
Not surprised to see Adam Kingsley named on the Pies coaching short-list. I’ve been spruiking Adam for a while now. I would be sad to see him go but I have no doubt he’ll make a great Senior Coach. Good luck to him.
pablocruz
Roar Rookie
The Hawk could play Pigsy.
Macca
Roar Rookie
A lot will depend on Jack and Harry’s ability to give TDK a chop out in the ruck. I expect TDK will develop into a ruckman who has the endurance to ruck the majority of the day, if the other 2 can do 10% each we should be fine, especially given all 4 are so mobile. That has been the most encouraging thing about Jack’s performance in recent weeks, it means we don’t have to have a Casboult or Pittonet in the side just to play second ruck and do not much else.
PeteB
Roar Rookie
Well he did have Freo in the eight last week so in fairness to Chucka some major corrections were to be expected :laughing:
CloudRunner
Roar Rookie
Well, I'm at an impasse there. Our skills were hampered by the slippery conditions on the weekend, but we're not so reliant on precise skills like the Bulldogs strike me as. Perhaps a Dogs fan could inform on there abilities in the wet...
Charlie Keegan
Roar Guru
Clearly you are.
Yattuzzi
Roar Rookie
And Tigers, but who's counting
Charlie Keegan
Roar Guru
Nah he will flop against the swans
PeteB
Roar Rookie
Don’t think we need to convince anyone which one is the better side :laughing:
Chanon
Roar Rookie
It’s a worry Chuck , Stringer just signed 3 ye deal he might flop this round :silly: