After Round 12, Melbourne sat on top of the ladder, a game clear of second and three games plus percentage clear of third. They had just outplayed the Western Bulldogs and Brisbane in consecutive weeks to stamp their premiership credentials all over the competition.
Since then, they have won two games, drawn one and lost three. Apart from a strong performance against Port, they have been uninspiring.
Across the season, the Demons have conceded 67 points per game. They conceded 66 points in the first 12 weeks, and have given up 70 per match in their last six.
Their defence isn’t a problem and is in fact in great shape. Opposition teams are trying to separate Steven May and Jake Lever to stop them from marking everything, with mixed success. They both read the play so well and May, particularly, is equally adept one-on-one as he is third man up.
(Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images)
Harry Petty has been effective replacing Adam Tomlinson. Trent Rivers has continued to be a find, Christian Salem is having a great year, and Michael Hibberd has been rock solid after some patchy form in recent seasons.
We look at Max Gawn, Christian Petracca, Clayton Oliver and Jack Viney, and think Melbourne should be clearance beasts, but the midfield hasn’t been connecting in this area of the ground to the level they should. They are ranked ninth in clearance differential this season, down from previous years where they have traditionally been top four in this stat.
Some of it will be due to young ruckman Luke Jackson taking more stoppages as he matures, while simultaneously asking less of Gawn and allowing him to rest forward. But while Gawn’s stats still look okay, he hasn’t been as impactful as recent seasons and any talk of him being in the All Australian conversation are surely a furphy.
Petracca and Oliver have been doing what they do, occasionally tearing games apart and being consistent in the meantimes. James Jordan and James Harmes have been strong in defensive roles when required. Ed Langdon is having a career-best season on the wing, and has been supported by Angus Brayshaw and Jayden Hunt on the outside too.
Melbourne is second for total inside 50s and fourth for inside 50 differential. They are creating the chances. Are they always quality chances? It’s fair to say they don’t have the class of a Bulldogs, Geelong or even Brisbane and Port when it comes to delivery inside 50.
But it’s the forward-line that is the issue, whether that is personnel or system.
Rounds 1-12, the Dees averaged 90 points per game. Since then, when their form has dipped alarmingly, they are scoring only 69 points a game. They have dropped to be seventh for points for overall, which simply isn’t going to cut it in September.
They haven’t been the sum of their individual parts in recent weeks.
In the absence of Ben Brown and Sam Weideman claiming the full-forward position as their own, Bayley Fritsch has been playing as the main focal point for inside 50s. A clever player, who is able to find space and has been confident in front of goal, he will be in the All Australian squad at least. He should be even more damaging as a third marking forward, if they can get their balance right.
Tom McDonald has been very good in his centre half-forward role. Kosi Pickett has probably exceeded expectations in his second year as the pressure forward pocket. Alex Neale-Bullen and Charlie Spargo have been solid role players, having their best seasons.
Throw in Petracca and Gawn resting forward, plus Jackson’s talent proving a hard match-up, and it’s not immediately obvious where it is going wrong.
(Photo by Albert Perez/Getty Images)
Ben Brown played his best game in Melbourne colours in the loss to the Bulldogs on Saturday night, in conditions that didn’t suit him and with delivery that was rarely pinpoint. He was a constant threat in the air and showed some ground agility that has been missing from his game. His kicking is off though, with some bad set shot misses, which was formerly a strength.
The Demons haven’t played West Coast yet, but have beaten all other top 12 sides at one stage or another this season. They have proven their bonafides with a series of commanding wins against the best sides.
Before the loss to the Dogs, they had only been beaten poor teams. The question was whether they were having mental lapses in those games, saving themselves for the best opposition. The loss to the Dogs, where they were beaten all game, suggests there is a problem and the dip in form is real.
No team can stay up all year and it’s better not to. Most sides that finish top of the ladder don’t win the premiership. Paul Keating might say the Dees are in the midst of a recession they have to have.
But there are only four home-and-away games to go now. They’re cutting it fine.
They’ve put their top-four position in jeopardy, with the Eagles in Perth and Geelong still to come. There is still time to turn their form around, but it must be now.
Melbourne’s best is good enough to go all the way this year. It’s high time we saw it again.
Eagles 18
Roar Rookie
It's not just about this season. This is from the website... "The official AFL Player Ratings, compiled by Champion Data, take into account a player's last 40 games within a two-season block, with Naitanui shooting up the table this year now that he has a full body of work to be judged across two seasons".
Cloak
Roar Rookie
Do you think Dustin Martin (ranked 3rd) is having a better season than Christian Petracca (ranked 4th)? Or that Lachie Neale (7th) is having a better season than Jackson Macrae (11th)?
Eagles 18
Roar Rookie
How is Gawn ahead of Natanui when he is the No1. Ranked player in the AFL right now?
Cloak
Roar Rookie
We went after Brown because we were desperate for a key forward at the end of 2020. We planned all summer for Brown and Weideman to be our forward line and then both got injured within a month of Round 1. McDonald hadn't played a good game as a forward since 2018 and it was not unreasonable for us to have been concerned that wouldn't happen again, so we trialled him over summer as a high forward/wing (a la Adelaide Tom Lynch circa 2017). As it turned out, McDonald surprised all of us and recaptured some of his 2018 form, which then messed up how we'd planned to use Brown and Weideman. Then Weideman demanded selection at Casey with repeated hauls of goals. All that, coupled with Brown not being properly fit when we first brought him back into the side, explains why he wasn't in the side earlier. We used pick 3 on Jackson because he is supremely talented and at his best makes current Melbourne a better side (relief for Gawn in ruckwork and allows Gawn to sit behind the play, or go forward, as we wish), let alone the impact he can and will have on future Melbourne. Who cares why we took Preuss? We swapped him for Dom Tyson, who wasn't goin to feautre heavily in our post-2018 side, and then converted him last year into what I think is inarguably more than what North could have received in the same trade period for Tyson. Every club drafts or trades players who subsequently don't work out for them. I mean, why did you take Jimmy Toumpas? Why did Hawthorn take O'Rourke, or Patton, or Scully, or Wingard, or Vickery? Why do a whole bunch of clubs do a whole bunch of things? Our recent drafting (Jackson, Pickett, Rivers, all mainstays of our currently 3rd-ranked side) and trading (Lever, May, Langdon, Tomlinson) has been solid and that's all we can ask for.
Cloak
Roar Rookie
A combination of bad luck (e.g. umpires on the wrong side of tackles and therefore missing Dogs throws etc.), umpiring mistakes (e.g. Brayshaw called for holding the ball late in Q2), and Melbourne players making mistakes (e.g. May holding Naughton late in Q1). None of which are "ill-discipline", which suggests we were running around recklessly ripping their heads off or pushing them off the ball (which, by the way, Melbourne players have been wont to do from time to time, particularly vandenberg who didn't play this game). Good and disciplined clubs make mistakes and give away free kicks every single week.
MG
Roar Rookie
Wrong. July is the month to have poor form. August improve and September peak.
DEESNUTSRBIG
Guest
Ok we drafted well but it had a lot to do with dumb luck! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V6y4xWMN_Cwhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V6y4xWMN_Cw Jackson could have been taken at pick 6 & we would have had GWS 2020 R1 pick which would have been traded for a R1 pick in 2019 Mitch Georgiades who Melbourne were very interested in but delusional thinking he could fall to pick 28/32. I couldn't believe Carlton didn't take Pickett (they bid on L.Henry) and traded the pick so we were bloody lucky SOS messed that up. Rivers was amazingly passed over and fell into the Dees lap at 32. As you can see pretty good at identifying talent but the deals, no deals, delusional thinking is just laughable. As I said our later picks have been good. Look at that fool Goodwin grinning :silly:
DEESNUTSRBIG
Guest
Look at the clowns in action. Ok we drafted well but it had a lot to do with dumb luck! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V6y4xWMN_Cwhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V6y4xWMN_Cw Jackson could have been taken at pick 6 and we would have had GWS 2020 R1 pick which would have been traded for a R1 pick in 2019 Mitch Georgiades who Melbourne were very interested in but delusional thinking he could fall to pick 28/32. I couldn't believe Carlton didn't take Pickett (they bid on L.Henry) and traded the pick so we were bloody lucky SOS messed that up. Rivers was amazingly passed over and fell into the Dees lap at 32. As you can see pretty good at identifying talent but the deals, no deals, delusional thinking is just laughable. As I said our later picks have been good. Look at that fool Goodwin grinning :laughing:
Bruce
Guest
Agreed. Plus doggies have lots of professional high contact free kick specialists. In a big final they should just rip hunters head off (figuratively speaking)
Brendon the 1st
Roar Rookie
Plenty of first halves this year, then they took there foot off.
okapiman
Roar Rookie
Ski -season, not sure what the question is for Melbourne. Good snow = no Melbourne. They just start thinking about their family chalets. If the ski season extends into spring, confirm Melbourne is zero chance.
Steele
Roar Rookie
Your going back a fair way in regards to those recruiting blunders. I prefer to focus on the more recent recruiting of Pickett, Jackson and Rivers in one off season and the much maligned at the time(not now funnily enough)May and Lever trades. Tomlinson was playing out of his skin this year prior to ACL so that’s a bit harsh. Langdon is another tick. James Jordon another gem. The recruiting has been top notch for a few yrs now.
Steele
Roar Rookie
Melbourne expected to play Brown when he recovered from injury, however TMac decided to light it up in his absence. They won’t play play TMac, Weid and Brown in the same team and now are all fit. So Brendon what do you suppose they do? Weid had a month at it and spudded it up. Now Brown is getting his chance and has been moderately better. Your attack makes zero sense. The same with Jackson. You seriously are going to criticise his recruitment? He’s second in the rising star betting mate! And he’s not just a ruckman either, so again zero sense. Dom Tyson was yonks ago and Preuss was injured mainly then wanted to leave, we still got pick 31 for him which is more than Tyson is currently worth. That’s a small win. Zero sense again. Rants of a lunatic.
Cat
Roar Guru
Geelong has lost one of their last 11 games.
Cat
Roar Guru
So what was this ‘lop-sided free kick count’ brought on by then?
Cat
Roar Guru
There is a difference between ‘super talented’ and ‘as talented as anyone going around’. Every side has talent. It takes more than that to win premierships. Just ask the GWS Ferrari that keeps crashing. Genuine question: I do watch more than just Geelong games but I don’t have time to watch every game played by every team. Has there been a game this year where Port were ‘almost unstoppable’?
Yattuzzi
Roar Rookie
You have to give a bit of stick. It’s just the way at it is. Hey. I am talking like a normal, roarer, you have cured me from Pinkies curse.
DEESNUTSRBIG
Guest
GWS offered pick 6 and their 2020 1st rounder for pick 3, Melbourne said no and Adelaide (pick 4) said HELL YEAH Christmas has come early :silly: Jackson would have been available at 6 anyway + rd1 pick was a no-brainer to everyone except Melbourne. Dees have messed up plenty of early picks : Scully/Trengove over Dusty, Watts over NicNat, Toumpas over Wines (Vineys best mate who everyone said to pick). They have been pretty good drafting with higher picks though. Weeds body is not ready to play key position, he has had injuries basically every year even as a teenager. Real good guy but needs to get stronger and more aggressive. The busted jaw a couple of years ago was a real blow. He will make it just not as a no1 forward. Melbourne made a great trade bringing in the hardest running wingman in the comp Langdon but countered that with Tomlinson :thumbdown: on 600k for 3 years to play on the wing despite being too slow and getting bugger all possessions.
Brendon the 1st
Roar Rookie
Why would I possible smile over a record GF defeat lol All in good fun, I know.
Yattuzzi
Roar Rookie
Maybe I’m not Brendon. But at least we can have a laugh. Hopefully. I was trying to get at least a smile. But yes, I should have known better.