As the saying goes, “all good things must come to an end”.
One of the greatest dynasties in modern AFL history is about to be over, with Richmond’s 39-point loss to the GWS Giants on Friday night seeing the club all but eliminated from finals contention for the first time since 2016.
It was an era which saw the Tigers claim three flags in four years, as well as produce numerous All Australians, a first-time triple Norm Smith Medallist and a Brownlow Medallist in Dustin Martin, and a sustained long period of on-field success.
The club had previously lost a hat-trick of elimination finals between 2013-15, before a dismal 2016 season saw the future of coach Damien Hardwick thrown into severe doubt before he narrowly avoided the axe following a brutal review of the club’s operations.
The following pre-season saw an aggressive recruiting drive which saw Toby Nankervis, Dion Prestia and Josh Caddy arrive at the club from the Sydney Swans, Gold Coast Suns and Geelong Cats, respectively, while the much-maligned Tyrone Vickery was offloaded to Hawthorn.
In addition, Justin Leppitsch also returned to Tigerland, following three unsuccessful years as coach of the Brisbane Lions.
There was nothing much to expect of the Tigers going into 2017, but they would surprise many by winning their first five games of the season, marking their best start since 1995.
Though they would promptly lose their next four matches, three of them by less than a kick (including last-gasp losses to Fremantle and the GWS Giants which led to Footy Classified’s Caroline Wilson labelling them a “laughing stock”), they would finish third at season’s end – their best result since 2001.
Going into the finals series, many questions were going to be asked about how the Tigers would handle the heat of September football, having lost their previous four finals matches dating back to a loss to the Brisbane Lions in the 2001 preliminary final.
However, after being held on a leash by the Geelong Cats for three quarters, Damien Hardwick’s men would break the shackles in the final quarter, winning by 51 points to advance straight to the penultimate weekend of the season.
A 36-point win over the GWS Giants in the preliminary final saw them qualify for their first grand final since 1982, where they would meet the Adelaide Crows, who had been the most dominant team of the home-and-away season and were rampaging hot favourites to claim their first flag since 1998.
The Tigers went into their first decider in 35 years as huge underdogs, but after a poor first quarter, they would run riot thereafter, restricting the usually high-scoring Crows to their lowest score of the season, in the biggest match of the year, to win by 48 points.
It was during that season which Dustin Martin produced the greatest season mankind ever witnessed, becoming the first man to achieve the triple of winning a Brownlow Medal, a premiership medal and a Norm Smith Medal in the same calendar year.
While Gary Ablett Jr was, to that point in time, the most recent Brownlow Medallist to then feature in a premiership team in the same week, he was pipped for best-on-ground honours by Paul Chapman in the 2009 decider.
The Tigers’ triumph put an end to 37 long years of mediocrity, during which the club was subject to speculation surrounding its future, taunts about narrowly missing the finals (thus giving rise to the nickname “Ninthmond”) and its failure to perform in September.
They went on to finish on top of the ladder the following season with an 18-4 record, going undefeated in Victoria right up until the preliminary final where they suffered a shock 39-point thrashing at the hands of Collingwood.
season 2019 started poorly for Damien Hardwick’s side, losing two of their first three matches, before going on to finish third on the ladder and qualify for their second grand final in three years.
Again led by captain Trent Cotchin, the club would win its 12th flag in a landslide, thrashing the GWS Giants by 89 points with Martin winning a second Norm Smith Medal and Marlion Pickett winning a premiership medal in his debut match.
The club’s 2020 campaign would be rocked by the global coronavirus outbreak, which was declared a pandemic just prior to the start of the season, with Prime Minister Scott Morrison outlawing non-essential mass gatherings of over 500 people for an initial six-month period.
Prior to the season starting, Hardwick proclaimed that the 2020 flag would be “the greatest premiership won”, given the challenges that COVID-19 was expect to present to the entire league.
This meant the Tigers played their season-opening game against Carlton, a blockbuster which would normally draw up to 90,000 people, behind closed doors, before the season was suspended for nearly three months due to the uncertainly surrounding the pandemic.
Upon resumption, the club restarted the season poorly, not winning until Round 5, after which all ten Victorian clubs were forced to evacuate as a devastating second wave of coronavirus cases smothered the state.
Despite having to relocate to Queensland until the end of the season, the Tigers continued to play tough and well, and like the Brisbane Lions and Hawthorn before them, had to take the long way around after losing their qualifying final against the Lions.
Subsequent wins over St Kilda and Port Adelaide (in Adelaide) saw the club advance to its third decider in four years where they faced the Geelong Cats, who also had to take the long way around having lost to the Power in its qualifying final, at the Gabba.
The Tigers appeared down and out in the second quarter, trailing by as much as 22 points going into halftime, before a Dusty-inspired second half saw them conjure a 53-point turnaround to win by 31 points.
Martin entered the record books as the first man to ever win three Norm Smith Medals, as his club joined the likes of the Lions, Cats and Hawks in winning at least three flags this century.
Going into this season, many questioned whether the Tigers could win a third flag in a row, something only the Lions and Hawks have done since the turn of the century.
After Round 12, the club was in eighth place with a 7-5 record, and were well poised to make a strong charge towards a top-four berth in the second half of the season.
But it would not be, with the Tigers losing seven of their last nine matches as injuries to key players plagued the side, the worst of them being Dusty’s kidney injury which he suffered in the Round 18 win over the Brisbane Lions on the Gold Coast.
Other players such as Dion Prestia, Bachar Houli and Toby Nankervis have also missed considerable portions of the season as well.
Bachar Houli (Photo by Brett Hemmings/Getty Images)
The worst of the losses in this period was a 40-point loss to St Kilda at the MCG in Round 15, in which the Tigers could only manage two majors for the whole game – a 126-point negative turnaround from when they won by 86 points at Marvel Stadium in Round 5.
A shorter pre-season than usual, due to last year’s grand final being played in late-October rather than on the traditional last Saturday of September, could also be a telling factor in the club’s poor season; they had only 145 days from then to prepare for Round 1 this year.
Even then, the Tigers won their first two matches before being upstaged by an up-and-coming Sydney Swans side at the MCG in Round 3; only once thereafter did they win consecutive matches, in Rounds 11-12, both away from Victoria.
Friday night’s loss to the GWS Giants, in which they conceded seven goals in the first quarter, leaves them in deep trouble going into their final round clash against Hawthorn next week.
If Essendon and the West Coast Eagles beat the Gold Coast Suns and Fremantle respectively today, then the Tigers’ finals hopes, and by extension premiership era, will all but come to an end, and thus render the match against the Hawks a dead rubber.
(Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
They are set to become the first club since the Western Bulldogs in 2017 to miss the finals twelve months after winning a flag, and just the second to do so this century after Hawthorn failed to make the top eight following its premiership win in 2008.
The challenge for Damien Hardwick’s side in the short-to-long term is to avoid the same fate that befell the Brisbane Lions and Hawthorn, whereby these clubs endured (or are enduring, in the Hawks’ case) prolonged periods of poor on-field performances this century.
It is easy to forget how dominant the Lions were in the early part of this century, when they won a hat-trick of flags between 2001-03 and fell short of a fourth straight flag when Port Adelaide defeated them by 40 points in the 2004 decider.
The club subsequently slid down the ladder, finishing 11th in 2005 after suffering a record 139-point loss to St Kilda at Marvel Stadium in the final round of the regular season.
By the time the club returned to the finals in 2009, several club legends such as the Scott brothers, Michael Voss, Jason Akermanis, Martin Pike, Justin Leppitsch, Shaun Hart, Alastair Lynch and Marcus Ashcroft, among others, had either moved on or retired.
Leigh Matthews, who masterminded the club’s premiership era, had also resigned as coach the previous year, saying “the time was right”.
That year (2009), the Lions came from behind to beat Carlton in an elimination final at the Gabba before losing to the Western Bulldogs by 51 points in the semi-final at the MCG. It was to be their only appearance in September between 2005 and 2018 inclusive.
Ashley McGrath was the final player from any of the club’s 2001-03 premiership sides to retire, bowing out at the end of the 2014 season.
The Lions’ fall from grace culminated in three consecutive bottom-two finishes between 2015-17, the first two of them under Leppitsch as coach, and a wooden spoon in current coach Chris Fagan’s first season in 2017.
However, under Fagan’s watch, the club has seen a return to the upper echelon of the ladder, finishing second in 2019 and 2020, and despite recent poor form plus injuries to key players including reigning Brownlow Medalist Lachie Neale, will again play finals this year.
Chris Fagan (Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
Likewise, the Hawks are also undergoing an ongoing transitional phase which will see legendary coach Alastair Clarkson hand over to his assistant Sam Mitchell at the end of this season.
The club has not won a final since winning its hat-trick of flags between 2013-15 and will miss the finals for the fourth time in five years, with a fourth-place finish in 2018 its best result in that period (even then, the club crashed out of the finals in straight sets that year).
Only four players who played in each of the Hawks’ 2013-15 flags – Shaun Burgoyne, Luke Breust, Jack Gunston and Liam Shiels – remain at the club today. With Burgoyne’s retirement at season’s end, that will decrease to three.
In contrast to the Lions and Hawks’ woes, the Geelong Cats remain a model of consistency since their most recent flag in 2011, regularly featuring in premiership contention despite gradually having many of its premiership stars move on to other clubs or retire.
Their grand final loss to Richmond last year is the closest they have gone to winning another flag since, and this year they are well in the mix with current captain Joel Selwood eager to lead his side to one before he retires.
This takes us to the present now, where several Tigers players will face questions about their future, with veterans Trent Cotchin, Jack Riewoldt, Dustin Martin, Bachar Houli and Shane Edwards, among others, all on the wrong side of 30.
The lure of bringing up 300 games late next season will surely be what drives Edwards on to play next year, while Cotchin and Martin will bring up their milestones at some point in the 2023 season, if they play every match from here on in.
It also remains to be seen whether the inevitable has indeed arrived, that being the end of the Tigers’ premiership era, or whether they can bounce back in 2022 and return to the upper part of the ladder.
What is certain, though, is that several of its premiership stars will gradually ride into the retirement sunset in the coming years, and this will give the club’s younger players more exposure to AFL level and usher in a new era of success for the club.
In the short term, the Tigers’ focus will turn to the final round clash against Hawthorn, which will also double as a significant occasion as it will mark the final time Alastair Clarkson, under whom Damien Hardwick was an assistant between 2005-09, coaches the Hawks.
While missing finals may be frustrating for the Richmond Football Club and its supporters, at least the players will be able to benefit from a longer off-season, during which they can refresh and start launching their assault on the 2022 season.
Perhaps next year we’ll know whether this season was only a fork in the road in their premiership era, or whether their gradual and inevitable on-field decline will continue.
Dusty does Danger
Roar Rookie
Col, your living in the past. In 2016 Lions were equal last with the Dons - now they’re both playing finals. Draft, Salary caps, The system doesn’t allow sustained success or long term decline. It robs good teams of depth, as fringe players leave such as Ellis, Butler, Markov, Higgins leave and are walk ins in other teams. Wish we had them now! Unless your an anomaly like Carlton, should be playing finals within 4 years. Barring injuries Tigers will be there next year.
David W
Roar Rookie
How hungry for more success can a triple-premiership player be?
AD
Guest
I think it's definitely the end for the current group, time to go back and start building again. And that's fine. That's how the AFL works, it's how the AFL is supposed to work. You get a bit of time at the top, then you drop away, and start again. What matters is actually making the most of that time at the top when you've got it, and they did that.
Waddster
Roar Rookie
Great observations. The role of Emma Murray in building belief is probably the reason Richmond won. Richmond had a huge advantage in mental fitness. Other clubs have no doubt copied this and reduced the advantage. In the fifth year of most jobs people start making more mistakes. They need a refresh. The coach has had to deal with upheaval and less coach input. We are now to be admiredon and off the field.
ColinT
Roar Rookie
Your last line said it all. “their inevitable on-field decline will continue”. Only a matter of time before we see Richmond supporters burning their membership cards outside the Punt Road oval, Hardwick sacked and Richmond eating their own alive. Seen it all before.
Chris
Guest
That's papering over the cracks and delusional thinking. They are gone! WCE has just proved my theory right today by losing to Fremantle! Richmond are going nowhere fast and Hardwick knows it. He is annoyed because he can't climb the Jock McHale or Norm Smith tree! There have been many who have tried and failed: Barrassi, Hafey, Malthouse, Sheedy, Parkin, Kennedy, Jeans, Clarkson, Pagan just to name a few! Let's drop this sickening discussion that leads nowhere....Mark my words- AFL allows a three to four year dynasty and that's it. Isn't the NFL and NBA the same? The EFL and Serie A are going down that route, too. That's how the powers that be want things to be...Punt Road will revert to a poor man's Collingwood again.
Thom Roker
Roar Guru
It's academic now though because Essendon won and West Coast lost. Now Richmond can make it if: Essendon loses to Collingwood AND West Coast loses to Brisbane AND Fremantle loses to St Kilda AND Richmond beats Hawthorn AND Essendon's percentage plummets AND Richmond's percentage skyrockets. Essendon are plus 20 goals with Richmond minus 6 goals, so the chances of Richmond coming 8th are miniscule, yet 9th is looking like a real possibility!
Dusty does Danger
Roar Rookie
Troy Bond is hardly a Dusty. Timbo, i don’t think you were at the game last year because if you were, you would not call it boring. It was a ferocious start and hearts were in the mouth of both Tiger and Cats supporters, with players going down. Cats threw out the challenge and Tigers were on the back foot in the first half. Then rise Sir Dusty, he makes something out of nothing and blows the game right open. Understand if you say 2019 was boring- it was one way traffic. 2017 wasn’t, the Power Rangers thought they had it won before it started but Dusty put on a show as well. To see a once in a generation player turn it on live is something I’ll never forget. Seriously those goals Dusty kicked last year were better than any of 6 Jarmen kicked. Next you’ll have me talking about Royce and the 73 finals series!
Dusty does Danger
Roar Rookie
Tend to agree Punt. Surprised they gave Jack another 12 months, having said that, looks like he finishes with 50 goals. Also didn’t mention Lambert, Dusty & Prestia missing games. Prestia missed plenty last year as well and back in 2019 when he virtually had a full season he won the B&F. We also had a tough as nails draw compared to someone like the Cats who seem to be playing each week at GMHBAZXY stadium.
Timbo's rules
Guest
Troy Bond. Never heard of him you say. Well in the 1997 Grand Final he got off the leash four times to kick a goal in every quarter. You've heard the stories about Shane Ellen kicking 5 in the first qtr, Darren Jarman who kicked 5 in the last to win the game, or the Norm Smith winner Andrew McLeod who weaved 4 quarters of magic. What has that got to do with Richmond and their demise. The 2020 Grand Final was the least interesting in memory. Of the 44 players none played as if their life depended on it, 43 played safe average football, and the other one, he got off the chain four times and sadly he was clearly the best player on the ground. So when the rules change to counter their unwatchable style of play, the punters win and Richmond loses. Bye.
Leigh Schneider
Guest
Thank you for a thoughtful and well balanced article. My usual "analysis" this year has been staring open-mouthed at the TV after yet one of our another unrecognisable performances. With your indulgence, may I offer a few small thoughts. (1) It's a sad plummet after four years of excellence, but it took the competition those four years to work out how to beat us and assemble squads capable of doing it. Comparisons with Brisbane, Geelong and Hawthorn are a bit misplaced for mine: I can't recall a multi-premiership squad with so many players tagged as "that bloke isn't good enough to get a game at any other club", and still they've beaten everything thrown at them three times. That's something to be celebrated as much better than extraordinary. (2) However, is this the end of Hardwick's success with his Role Player model? Those not-good-enough blokes succeeded under a plan that maximised their genuine abilities but used the collective swarm and pressure to take the heat off some very ordinary parts of their skill sets. When opposing teams this year started forcing those players back to their weaknesses it was clear for many of them that their marking and/or kicking accuracy and/or tackling and/or decision making hadn't improved much over the four years. Be honest, there are very few role players from 2017 and 2018 who've raised themselves to elite all-round skills. So they'll be a year older and a year more exposed in 2022. It's not the ageing stars who worry me as much as the B listers who are watching oncoming headlights; and if Hardwick recruits more of them as replacements then the opposition will be waiting for them. (3) Is four years pretty much destined to be the window of premiership opportunity now? It must mean something that after all kinds of radical changes in this century the Collingwood Machine of the 1920s is still the only four in a row team. Clarkson's Hawthorn pushed the limits but even they flirted with the cliff along the way and later fell right off it. Geelong and Sydney have stayed up for a long time but without getting to the top consistently. Are we looking at redefining the life of a premiership dynasty? (4) I assume that the smartest teams going forward will be looking at Richmond in 2022 to see how much difference an early end to the season might make to player management. Our ageing stars have had an extra month per year without rest since 2017 and that has to have a significant impact. If someone else wants to be the next dynasty then we might wind up seeing some big changes in how players are looked after. Anyway, thanks for your time and thanks for the great writing.
XI
Roar Guru
Yeah but the Essendon game doesn't matter if the Eagles win. Richmond can't make it to 8th.
Gerry
Roar Rookie
Look Richmond have been amazing the last 4 years but I predicted at the beginning of the season when a few Richmond supporters were gloating they would wipe all before them and claim another premiership that they would not this year. Injuries have played their part yes but too many inept performances have left them in this position. The Eagles are in a similar position and hand on heart I don’t think they deserve to get to finals this year. Teams like Essendon probably deserve it more. Any team can say they can be a threat next year so Hardwick’s statement is predictable and boring. Even North Melbourne can state that. Geelong have a last chance to take it before their window closes. Personally I would like to see them get it. Congratulations to Richmond the benchmark for the last 4 years it’s time to move aside for now but if course expect them to be back very soon.
Milo
Roar Rookie
Tigers really have to get a bit ruthless in the trade period and trade one or two out for picks. These guys have to go to clubs who are almost there so that we do get some decent returns and just as importantly whoever gets traded gets the chance to play finals (again). Players like Houli, Astbury, Chol, perhaps. Like to see Cotchin play one more season without the captaincy supporting a new leader like Graham or Vlastuin. We already have two first round and two second round, but be good to boost that with one or two more before the third round. Choose wisely as they say, and we wont be too far off in another year or two.
Avatar
Roar Guru
I did say “if Essendon and West Coast beat Gold Coast and Freo respectively“ meaning Bombers > Suns and Eagles > Freo. And thanks for correcting the ordinal mistake it was on my end.
Johnno
Roar Rookie
Cheers.....they made the GF but I suppose.
RT
Roar Rookie
Hard to argue with anything there.
Puntroad
Roar Rookie
Some hard headed thinking required. That includes frank discussions with Jack - mate you have had a brilliant career; thanks; we'd love to have you around the club as a goalkicking coach, and all the best with your media career. CCJ deserves a chance, and Lynch needs to forget the weights and get mobile - much hinges on him; where is his head at? Cotch is no longer an automatic selection, so make Dusty captain. There is no point offering another year to Houli - simply delays the inevitable. Ross and Eggy aren't good enough. Chol is a possible forward but no good in the ruck (all at sea down back). Maybe trial Baker as an on-baller?
Rowdy
Roar Rookie
Mrs Hardwick sends her regards.
Vicboy
Roar Rookie
Perhaps…. but Mitchell will want to recover some ground within the senior players. Pies still need a lightning quick small pressure forward - allow Elliott etc to play natural games; and if they appoint Ross Lyon, they might not play the kids. Tiges need to recruit a couple of gun mids - unfortunately Caddy’s considered too slow- maybe half back at a developing club?; could Chol replace Astbury?; Castagna should go to Carlton and lift training standards (other than kicking!); Aarts is like Butler- too good to be missing out on Senior footy ( perhaps Pies) Tiges will make finals next year