Grab the popcorn… Penrith versus Parramatta delivers a local derby with storylines galore including some misfiring players and two coaches under the pump.
I can’t predict anything other than a close one with Penrith getting home right at the death. Either way it’s going to be a helluva ride.
Last week, Penrith were tired, they were frantic and they were distressed when they had the ball.
Parramatta weren’t perfect either, but this week they will bounce in because they might have the style to upset the applecart here against Penrith.
The big question mark for me with Penrith is how do they get Jarome Luai into the game?
How can they reinvigorate that energetic, emotional, confident, arrogant, five-eighth that we saw before the Origin series?
That’s the guy they desperately need back. They’ve tried putting the game on a plate for him and it’s not working.
If I’m out there, and I’m Nathan Cleary, I’m saying to Luai we don’t need you to have the first run and we don’t need you to have the first kick. We just need you to do everything that you can to bring your best game.
That might be a tackle or a hit up. Maybe it’s him being in a position where he gets hit or run over. That will help bring the fire back. That’s how you get yourself into the game, not being spoon fed the first kick.
They have to tell Luai: ‘You get yourself into the game because you’re an Origin player now and we expect more’.
What he’s gone through since the Origin series isn’t new. And it can definitely be disheartening.
(Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)
I played Origin in 2011. Because I’d won the comp with the Dragons the year earlier I felt I had that bit of big-game experience behind me.
But coming back after Origin, everything is completely different.
You’re back to training every single day, you have to make your own food, the energy levels and excitement of playing on the biggest stage with everyone watching just isn’t there every single week.
There’s no doubt it’s tough, especially if you’re a young kid with lots of pressure on you.
Penrith tightened up last week, they’d been prone to an ambush, and it didn’t surprise me that much when it happened.
Everyone’s been saying that they’ve started finals games slowly and they’ve been able to dig themselves out of it. They didn’t dig themselves out of it in the grand final last year and they couldn’t do it last week either.
If you can jump in and punch them in the mouth, and you’re able to get six to ten points ahead, then you’re definitely going to be in the game for a long, long time.
I’d be expecting Penrith to start a lot more disciplined, kick early, and build their game through their defence – which is the best defensive unit in the comp.
I’ve played under Ivan Cleary and last week, a bit like the side’s performance, he got caught inside his own head.
He, and the team, tried to use trickery, and be too clever, instead of just going out there and doing what they do best.
The choker tag gets thrown around pretty loosely, and he’ll be keen to avoid it.
If they don’t advance, they would have made a grand final being the best team and lost. Then this year they came into the finals, probably the hottest team with Manly, and if they go out in straight sets… well the tag will be thrown around again.
Every year that you don’t succeed, the pressure starts to build and you have to go back to the drawing board for another 12 months.
(Photo by Ian Hitchcock/Getty Images)
Cleary’s very cool, calm and collected and understands his players. Last week was the first real sign I’ve seen of him feel the pinch a little bit, and he’s not used to that.
This week he would have reined it in a little bit, let his players take over. I don’t think there would have been too much over coaching this week. The review would have been really hard to watch because of the stuff that I did, but their preparation would have started straightaway.
It’s not just Cleary who’s under pressure, of course. If Parramatta get blown away, Brad Arthur’s job is under severe threat.
I say that with the utmost respect for him because what he’s done in getting this side through the first week of the finals and now with a chance of upsetting Penrith.
Not finishing in the top four really hurt them. But they do have that outlier against the Melbourne Storm, which makes you wonder whether they can turn it on for one more game.
If Parramatta are to upset the Panthers, it’s going to have to be a power game from their forwards, and they have to take on James Fisher-Harris. He was exposed last week.
Souths really attacked him and he ran for under 100 metres – this from a guy who is probably the premier prop in the world.
If Reagan Campbell-Gillard and Junior Paulo can do that, create some second phase with their offloads, get Clint Gutherson, Dylan Brown and Mitchell Moses running the footy, it may be the recipe for Parramatta to move on.
The Final Word
Roar Rookie
Oops! Luai CAN'T handle an aggressive defensive line that cuts off his options... as we saw tonight.
The Sporacle
Roar Rookie
Yep and if the Panthers win the GF they will have beaten Parra, the Storm and either Souths or more likely Manly :stoked: that would be a hard draw as well, simply put to win you've got to beat everyone :thumbup:
andrew
Roar Rookie
I agree with your comment about Luai, just like last week where Turbo had problems with a tough defence.
egbert
Guest
While I don't think he's the complete fullback, you could argue that with Edwards in the team they would have beaten Souths because he would have finished off a couple of line breaks (Yeo's in particular) where there was no support within miles - the one area Edwards is elite.
egbert
Guest
"distressed when they had the ball" is a good description of how they were last week. And you were great in Origin in 2011, Jamie. Should have played for NSW more.
Big Mig
Roar Rookie
Based on the last 3 months the top 3 teams in the NRL are Storm, Rabbitohs and Manly. Without doubt, not Penrith (since theri post origin rut) nor Parra. Funny how we hear that the Rabbitohs side of the draw is somehow 'weaker'. If the Bunnies win the GF they would have beaten Panthers, Manly and most likely Storm. hardly an easy side of the draw.
Big Mig
Roar Rookie
Cleary - Luai v Moses - Brown, it's going to be a ripper. Hope they turn it on. Moses - Brown are probably playing more with confidence at the moment.
The Final Word
Roar Rookie
I have to admit Dwayne, as a mad Rabbitohs fan, my only interest is in seeing the opposite side of the draw rough each other up and for the winners to limp into their next contest battered and bruised. While Souths on the other side of the draw have a relatively unchallenged path to the GF without loss due to injury or suspension. It is a big enough hurdle for them to overcome, already missing Latrell for the second straight year of the finals series. If Latrell plays in either 2020 or 2021, IMHO Souths with the premiership. To be blunt, it’s been evident for most of the season that the top 3 teams (Rabbitohs, Storm and Panthers) are way ahead of the rest. I think that will only be more evident as the finals progress. Btw, my tip for the top 3 at the start of the season was 1. Panthers, 2. Rabbitohs and 3. Storm with the Rabbitohs to win the premiership (assuming at that time Latrell would be playing during the finals).
The Final Word
Roar Rookie
That will be the key, Dwayne. The Eels defensive resolve and commitment on the one percenters and repeat effort plays. They can't afford to gift the Panthers possession and repeat sets through ill discipline or poor ball control. Like last week, when the Panthers scored the first Try against Souths, the Eels can't afford to drop their heads if the Panthers score early. But they can't ever let them score back-to-back and get on a roll. IF the Panthers click into gear and their confidence lifts, the Eels will go out the back door for the 2021 NRL premiership fast. The Eels have the perfect opportunity tonight to ambush a Panthers side still shell shocked from their surprise loss last week and having lost their main metre eater and finisher in Brian To'o late in their preparation. The Eels will not win tonight if they are timid. They have to go for it. Carpe diem!
Dwanye
Roar Rookie
Hi again The Final. I agree with most all of that. But I not sure eels would best the storm side for a third time. Bellamy too smart and what ever his plan his players are good enough to do it well. There’s always ‘any team on there day’ stuff. The good teams have more days ‘they’re on’. Both teams in GF need luck including storm, the teams to beat the storm need more ‘luck’ and things to go more ‘right’ then the storm need.
Dwanye
Roar Rookie
Hi The Final. Yep, the eels forwards have to steam roll again to close panthers, not sure eels can contain the panthers stars like south’s did. I want to see ‘the more guy’ (as my mrs calls him) go hard again, last week was nuts.
The Final Word
Roar Rookie
A lot depends on how the Panthers bounce back mentally. If the Eels put it on them in the first 20 mins they could get rattled. The Panthers are a side that thrive off calling all the shots, being on the front foot and controlling the pace and flow of the game. In truth, I suppose all sides are like that. The Panthers are yet to prove they can get through tough encounters and past the top sides in an 80-minute arm wrestle when things don't go their own way. That said, I have tipped that Panthers, but I give the Eels a real shot at winning this one if they don't let the Panthers dictate the game from the kick-off and play them direct and through the middle and let their forwards decide the contest.
Tom G
Roar Rookie
If the Panthers click, they can beat anyone left no doubt. They’re a really talented side capable of scintillating footy. If they get a big win tonight, which i think they might, I don’t subscribe to this thought that the Storm are a shoo in next week either. They got caught out by a coaching master class last week by one of the best, I don’t see that being repeated tonight and it’ll put a spring in their step for games ahead
Tom G
Roar Rookie
Ok but I’m also struggling with the Eels being mentally tougher than the Panthers. The continual praise for the Eels hard men is a mystety as they’ve often gone missing on numerous occasions this year and have been practically mia for the last month, Storm game aside. I’m also far from convinced that they wouldn’t get mopped up by a Storm side looking for redemption. As for the Eagles next week, who knows but I’m pretty sure they’ll give Souths a decent game. To be honest if you told me that they’d make a prelim final a few months back I'd have been delighted. Anything they do from now is a bonus
Nat
Roar Guru
That's a good summation, nice job. Fully agree, if Parra are to get anywhere near the Panthers they need to hunt in the forwards just like last week. Not that JFH can be easily pushed around but neither can the Newy pack and Parra (RCG) bashed them. Loving watching Stone hit also. Tonight, when a Panthers player is cut in half I bet it's the #9 who is down low. If the Panthers play expansive I don't think Parra can go with them. Lastly, I reckon Edwards coming back is a bigger 'in' than the loss of To'o.
The Final Word
Roar Rookie
I'm not convinced Luai can handle an aggressive defensive line that cuts off his options and takes away his time to make a decision. He thrives off retreating defences and defensive lines that either over commit to their sliding defence and leave the door open inside, or jam in too early and overplay their hand. Also, it is clear Luai is utterly dependent on Nathan Cleary and is unable to create on his own unless Cleary is steering the ship. That much was evident while the Panthers looked vulnerable during the period that Nathan Cleary and Brian To'o were missing from the side.
The Final Word
Roar Rookie
Except... the last thing the Panthers will be wanting after last week is a tough arm wrestle and a bash up where the Panthers will be tested for every minute of the game. Personally, I think they are an exceptionally talented side, but they aren't tough mentally (with the exception of Cleary and Yeo). Remember, they are a young side and young sides don't always know how to handle adversity. Everything hangs on the mentality of both sides, their commitment for the full 80 mins and being switched on for every minute of the game. The Eels certainly have the forward pack to trouble the Panthers but off the back of that Moses, Brown, Gutherson and Fergo all have to step up. The sooner the Eels can get Will Smith into dummy half, the better. Stone will be there to absorb the early pressure, but he isn't a dummy half and doesn't challenge the Panthers defence. Smith can and must if the Eels are to win. In all honesty, IMO the only chance of knocking the Storm out of making the GF is for the Eels to progress to the prelim final. The Panthers don't have the answers to get past the Storm but, for whatever reason, the Eels have beaten the Storm TWICE this year and have the formula to beat the Storm. I'm sure Bellamy and his boys will be cheering for the Panthers tonight. Good win by your boys last night, Tom. Next week will be a much tougher game for your boys, rest assured.
Walter Black
Guest
Last year, the Panthers had belief and they had confidence and rightly so - but they lost the big one This year, they had largely brushed off the GF loss, they had picked them selves up, the confidence had come back and so had the belief - this was going to be their year. Then Melbourne beat them in a regular season game and beat them by a whopping 27 points - that hurt - that dented the belief, it dented the confidence. They have won games since after all, they are a very good football side but they haven't been quite so fluid - confidence ? Then they lost to the Bunnies and this is the big one. The Bunnies had had some big scores put on them this season, they weren't Melbourne and they were never supposed to be able to beat the Panthers not after Penrith sweeping all before them for the best part of 2 years. But Penrith lost, Cleary got humiliated for his war of words, they now have to go the long way round but what has this done to their confidence ? Confidence is a very strange beast. A bad loss can be just what you need to galvanise you into action, to steel your nerve and to give you the willpower to show the world just how good you are or it can break you, put doubt in your mind, make you play a little slower, a little more deliberate in case you make a mistake. So where are Penrith ? Are they confident or is that little self doubt gremlin lurking somewhere in the Panthers psych ? Anything other than a fast start and early score from Penrith may see the little gremlin start his little games but one thing is for sure - it will be interesting to watch.
Tom G
Roar Rookie
I’m struggling with the notion that the Eels after one good game in months, granted it was the Storm, a messy unconvincing win agains the Knights are now considered capable of pulling off the upset. Panthers can only beat themselves in this one
Full Credit to the Boys
Roar Rookie
Thanks for your article Jamie. I have become a lockdown League fan again, in part because I really enjoyed Penrith's exuberant play. My assessment is that Moses Leota was missed badly last week. He is explosive and damaging, and I felt his fire wasn't adequately covered. Regarding Jarome, I'm expecting him and a desperate Panthers to explode over the next few games.