Brisbane are in danger of following Parramatta into a painfully prolonged premiership drought no one would have ever expected.
It’s already been 15 years since the Broncos last lifted the trophy and they may not like to hear it but the NRL’s glamour club is mired in the midst of a rebuild.
Although they have a long way to go – two decades in fact – to match the Eels’ barren run since their golden era of four titles ended in 1986, the fact that Brisbane have been unable to win a premiership for 15 years is borderline unthinkable.
This is a team that has had all the advantages as far as wealth, favourable schedules, junior talent and being a preferred destination for recruits.
Apart from coming within seconds of winning the 2015 grand final, they have arguably been the NRL’s biggest underachievers in the decade since Hall of Famer Darren Lockyer retired.
They no longer seem able to retain the top talent in South-East Queensland, as evidenced by their failure to tie up David Fifita, Reece Walsh, Sam Walker and Xavier Coates in recent times.
And their monopoly on Brisbane expires soon with the Dolphins entering the premiership in 2023.
Make no mistake, as much as the club will talk about returning to the finals (as all teams should), this is a rebuild just like every other club has had to endure at some stage and it could be a few more years before Brisbane are top-four material.
They’ve added Adam Reynolds and Kurt Capewell and farewelled several inconsistent performers from last season’s 14th-placed squad, most notably Xavier Coates to the Storm, Tevita Pangai jnr to Canterbury via Penrith, Brodie Croft to the Super League, Anthony Milford to Souths and Alex Glenn to retirement.
Kevin Walters has shot down reports that he is set to have his contract rescinded to be treated the same as a regular employee at the club whose position is reviewed annually but it’s not a good sign for his long-term future when such articles are being leaked to mastheads run by the owners of the club in News Corp.
Walters put in a solid effort in his first season in charge after the failed Anthony Seibold experiment, enjoying the goodwill generated by the club’s Old Boys and fans, who were thrilled to see a club legend taking over as coach.
The honeymoon is over for Walters (Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)
But the honeymoon is over and entering the second year of his contract, his only chance of remaining in charge is to get the Broncos, at the very least, in range of the finals.
Helping his cause is the fact that Dave Donaghy has praised the coach publicly several times since he took over as CEO midway through last season and that one of the other main powerbrokers at the club, football manager Ben Ikin, played alongside Walters in the halves when Brisbane won the 2000 grand final.
One of the key decisions Walters will need to make before the season kicks off is who will replace retired club legend Alex Glenn.
Reynolds is fresh off leading South Sydney to a grand final and appears to be the standout candidate but if he was to be appointed it would be the first time a player would captain the Broncos in his first game for the club, except of course for Wally Lewis in the foundation year of 1988.
Patrick Carrigan has been seen as a permanent skipper in the making over the past couple of seasons and is confident of being back from a torn ACL for the trials so he could also be part of a co-captaincy set-up if Walters goes down that path.
Reynolds solves so many of their problems in generating attack but he could become even more of a target for opposing defences unless Walters finds a secondary playmaker.
His other first-choice spine options – Tesi Niu, Jake Turpin and Tyson Gamble – aren’t renowned as natural ball-players.
It all adds up to a season where the Broncos can improve but they will need many factors to go their way before they can even start to think about being a finals factor once again.
What’s new
The two main signings – Adam Reynolds and Kurt Capewell – are the only recruits who will likely move the needle for Brisbane. Reynolds will be the focal point of their attack, while Capewell will add a veteran presence in the forwards and fill in wherever needed.
Their overall depth has been boosted by Brenko Lee and Jordan Pereira out wide, Bully Walters in the spine and veterans Ryan James and Corey Jensen in the pack.
Star on the rise
The Broncos have been grooming young buck Brendan Piakura for a few years to be the dynamic edge forward they’ve lacked since David Fifita headed for the Gold Coast.
Brisbane forked out big dollars to retain the former Queensland under-18 representative after several offers came in from rival clubs. After getting a sniff of the NRL late last season, he is likely to be fast-tracked into the team in 2022 via the bench in Round 2 after serving a dangerous contact suspension from his debut, backing up new recruit Kurt Capewell and Jordan Riki in the second-row rotation.
Who’s under the pump
Kotoni Staggs could be the swing factor for the Broncos.
(Photo by Matt Roberts/Getty Images)
If he has his head on straight, then his flashing footwork and sizzling speed can break tackles at will and give his team a top-class attacking weapon out wide.
However, he’s shown immaturity off the field in the past couple of seasons which have been cut in half by a torn ACL. When on song, he’s a genuine Origin chance for NSW but at 23 and entering his fifth season with a lucrative new long-term contract, he can’t afford to again be a problem child.
Best-case scenario
Adam Reynolds stays healthy, he gets a complementary halves partner from Tyson Gamble, Albert Kelly, Billy Walters or Kotoni Staggs, the young forwards keep developing and the white noise around Kevin Walters’s position as coach quickly dies down. If these things happen, the Broncos could be a contender for the finals but are highly unlikely to be a genuine title chance.
Worst-case scenario
The Broncos are super thin, especially if Adam Reynolds, Kotoni Staggs or Payne Haas get injured. Many of their squad members are still a couple of seasons away from hitting their prime while others like Jamayne Isaako, Tesi Niu and Thomas Flegler have been way too inconsistent to be considered sure things to support the three main stars in a playoff push.
If the back-up crew members don’t improve, Brisbane could finish in the bottom three for a third straight season.
1. Tesi Niu
2. Corey Oates
3. Kotoni Staggs
4. Herbie Farnworth
5. Jamayne Isaako
6. Tyson Gamble
7. Adam Reynolds
8. Payne Haas
9. Jake Turpin
10. Rhys Kennedy
11. Jordan Riki
12. Kurt Capewell
13. Patrick Carrigan
14. Kobe Hetherington
15. Corey Jensen
16. Ryan James
17. TC Robati
Others: Thomas Flegler (suspended until Round 3), Brendan Piakura (suspended until Round 2), Billy Walters, Jordan Pereira, Jesse Arthars, Selwyn Cobbo, Albert Kelly, Brenko Lee, Ezra Mam, David Mead, Corey Paix, Keenan Palasia
Beergardener
Roar Pro
I agree. My mates in my Broncos chat would all agree too. Kennedy is not a starter (with Haas, James, Jensen, Hetherington and Carrigan all able to play prop he may not even make the 17 some weeks). Oates and Isaako would be injury cover at best if they play like they did in 2021. Cobbo is a gun, we have to play him in the 17 to keep him. Not sure why we would sign Lee if he is not a likely starter. I think he is a solid defender too so may even be ahead of Farnworth (who I do rate) in the centre stocks.
Beergardener
Roar Pro
I think full strength in 2022 looks like: 1. Niu 2. Cobbo 3. Lee 4. Staggs 5. Farnworth 6. Gamble 7. Reynolds (C) 8. Haas 9. Turpin 10. James 11. Riki 12. Capewell 13. Carrigan 14. Hetherington (back up hooker/lock) or Paix (back up hooker/halves) depending on tactics 15. Kennedy/Flegler when back 16. Jensen 17. Robati I rate Hetherington highly, would consider giving Carrington some time at prop and starting Hetherington in 13 some weeks. I think that side is suddenly looking a lot stronger than the one in the article, especially with these wings and this bench. Not sure why we would have bought Brenko Lee (an Origin player) if he isn't in our 17 most weeks also.
Beergardener
Roar Pro
100%. I picked up on that too. The poor games Niu has had have been poor all around from the team. He also got thrust into his NRL career amidst the Seibold era when we were losing plenty of games and were starting blokes like an unfit T'eo and the rest of our backline consisted of Arthars and Kennar. If you actually watched him in 2021 he had more good games than bad and was one of our more valuable backs - and I think is a worthy first choice fullback next year
Beergardener
Roar Pro
Agree with all that. Definitely missing a game manager since Lockyer. And would have made a play for Finucane also
Beergardener
Roar Pro
Move along, nothing to see here that hasn't been repeated ad nauseum about the Broncos in the past season and going into season 2022. Of course we would be performing well to make the bottom half of the 8 next season! There is nothing new there. The article also makes little sense. We have apparently been underachieving since Darren Lockyer (one of the NRL's all-time GOATs) retired. We have been fielding teams of comparative nobodies since Lockyer retired, so hardly underachieving when making the finals most years since Locky retired with nobodies. One minute Suttor says we haven't hung onto top-line talent like Coates, then a few lines down he says Coates has been underperforming! I agree - he drops too much ball and misses too many tackles to be considered worth keeping - especially with Cobbo coming through (and Mead and Pereira for mine are more dependable). Apparently Fifita, Walsh and Walker are 'top-line talent'. I'm tired of this narrative - Walsh and Walker are young and we couldn't afford, culturally, to blood them and let them without experienced leaders next to them (which we have now in Reynolds). And Walsh in particular was asking too much. I don't think any of that trio lived up to their price tag in 2021 (not to say that they won't be great someday) but you can't hang onto everyone. At least he didn't say we should have kept Dearden - look how great he went up North. Anyway, don't let facts get in the way of a story bashing the Broncos
Rod
Guest
Te Maire Martin Could be the dark horse not even mentioned, if he's able to get onto the field I think with Reynolds,Staggs,Cobbo, that could swing things around a hell of a lot quicker, the Broncos have some awesome talent they just need some leadership.
Larry1950
Guest
Death riding souths supporter comment, look at how your lot treated Reynolds for the reason he left.
Rellum
Roar Guru
This just seems like wishful thinking, hoping the Broncs fail
andrew
Roar Rookie
Exactly Nat. A lot of wingers do it but Penrith exploited it against the Storm in the finals this year. That kick by Cleary to his unmarked winger, easiest of tries.
Nat
Roar Guru
I was at the last game NQ v Brisbane in 2020. Literally the whole crowd where we were are screaming at him to stay on the wing. He was in absolute disneyland and let Feldt in the 3 tries.
Nat
Roar Guru
I think Kevvie said last week that Staggs will be center next season. They've had that chat and there's too many better 5/8 options than to weaken both positions by moving Staggs in.
Paul Suttor
Expert
Not saying it’s gonna happen to Brisbane but after going so close in 2001 most people would’ve thought Parra would’ve won one by now. Clubs can’t keep trading on golden eras forever
Paul Suttor
Expert
That’s what you’d expect anyone in his position to say but also sets the table for a potential coaching change if they fail to make finals
Tim Carter
Roar Pro
They are a Man Utd, living on nostalgia, especially in their choice of coach, and surrendering their market dominance.
andrew
Roar Rookie
The games I've been to at Suncorp the last few years GH ,Oates has been ordinary. Yes, he definitely went backwards under Siebold, but i wasn't the least bit surprised when Kevvie dropped him to the Q Cup. I think Isaako is not a fullback, but i believe his best position is on the wing. He's better than Oates in my opinion.
Gray-Hand
Roar Rookie
He was one of the best wingers in the competition four or five years ago. He really went sideways under Seibold and never regained form.
Nico
Roar Rookie
Despite all the pressure that'll be on Kevvie, he will need to just pick and stick with his selections. From round 1 last year, there's only 1 member of the spine still there (Turpin), 7 of the starting 13 and 8 of the squad of 17. With so much upheaval he can't afford another year of chopping and changing, he just needs to give them a chance to gel. In their favour they play 3 bottom 8 teams in the first 4 rounds and 5 in the first 10 rounds (last year they played 8 of the first 10 games against top 8 sides in '21), so if they can manage 3 wins from the first 4 rounds they can build some confidence that could set them up for an improved '22
andrew
Roar Rookie
I've never rated Corey Oates. Can't believe he's even being considered part of the future. You look at the best possible line up, and i think they'd have to be hovering around the 8.
Adam
Roar Guru
I'm getting desperate for a fix too
Nico
Roar Rookie
Not sure you can accuse Niu of inconsistency 22 games into his first grade career. He got chucked into the fray during the 2020 season from hell and wasn't even considered the first choice fullback at the start of in '21. When he did finally cement the fullback spot last year Brisbane's form was on the uptick. I'll reserve my judgment on him for this year after he's had a full pre-season to prepare as the starting fullback