Australia’s Socceroos have been offered the toughest path to next year’s World Cup should they fail to gain automatic qualification from their Asian group, with a South American powerhouse awaiting them in a potential one-match playoff.
The draw for the intercontinental playoffs, made in Zurich on Friday, ensured that Graham Arnold’s men will face the fifth best side in South American qualifying should they end up as Asian playoff winners.
The Socceroos will be desperately hoping to avoid that familiar fate, though, by finishing second in their Asian group and gaining automatic qualification to the finals in Qatar next year.
Currently, Australia lie third in their pool with four matches remaining and if that’s the position they finish in, they would have to play an Asian playoff against the third-placed side in the other qualifying group.
Currently, that’s the United Arab Emirates.
Victory in that would then set up a one-off decider, at a neutral venue yet to be confirmed, against the fifth-placed South American side – currently Peru – on either June 13 or 14 next year.
But with Colombia, Chile and Uruguay all still battling for the automatic top four qualifying spots in South America, there would be no easy opposition – as Socceroos’ sides have found to their cost in the past.
For although Australia ended a 32-year World Cup drought by beating Uruguay on penalties after a two-legged play-off in 2005, they also lost play-offs to Uruguay in 2001 and Argentina in 1993.
Four years ago, Australia secured their passage to the 2018 World Cup with an intercontinental play-off victory over Honduras.
Meanwhile, New Zealand’s chances of reaching the World Cup finals were boosted by the intercontinental draw also pairing Oceania’s top side with the fourth-best team from North and Central America.
With the Oceanian sides yet to play their qualifying group, New Zealand are overwhelming favourites to get through to face the fourth-placed CONCACAF representative, which is currently Panama.
Micko
Roar Rookie
Why? Australia was the only Oceania nation to ever make it out of the group stage. At least AFC sides are more competitive! :thumbup:
The Ball Bobbled
Roar Rookie
Blooding new players is one thing - throwing them to the lions is another - - For the sake of the two teenagers, the reputation of the game in Australia and Channel 10 - he has to change the backline for the Newcastle match - give the two novices a run by all means - but somewhat more strategically
AGO74
Guest
It’s not just about whether one path is easier than another. It’s about regular competition with Asia in the Asian cup and World Cup qualifiers against quality teams compared to a once every 4 years crap shoot.
Bazza
Guest
The irony is that lowy and Football Australia presumably sought the switch to the Asian confederation in around 2007 as they thought it would be a far easier route to qualifying for the World Cup finals. For this World Cup I believe Australia would have been better off in Oceania but hey that’s the risk they took. In any event this is likely to be the last World Cup where qualifying for the Finals will be an achievement. From 2026 there will be 48 nations competing in the Finals so for Australia qualifying for the Finals will be a formality. As a privately educated Sydneysider who prefers my rugby union and cricket, it would serve my preferred sports well if the Socceroos missed out on this World Cup. Australia has just been announced as the preferred candidate for the Rugby Union World Cup in 2027 so we are basically a shoo-in for that. If that goes well, I would expect to see Rugby Union usurp football in this nation again to become the 3 biggest football code. Happy Days!!!
The Rev. Pat Brodnik 2.0
Guest
'Tis the wake-up call (F)FA and Arnie need, but won't heed.
NoMates
Roar Rookie
Good new for New Zealand though, be great to see them at the world cup again. And to be fair we dont really need/want 6 AFC sides at Qatar. We already just make up the numbers and a 6th team at the world cup would just devalue the confederation.
Lionheart
Roar Rookie
FIFA draws never seem to work too well in our favor, but let's hope it doesn't come to that. Arnie's got a big task ahead. Let's hope we are learning from this - so much to do in our game.
Mark
Guest
I doubt they’ll hear it, though. They’ll just look to the next World Cup, where the big jump in Asian places as part of a pretty shameless attempt by FIFA to help China qualify will practically guarantee we’ll get in again.
Waz
Roar Rookie
Unfortunately that last line is probably true - the FA need a wake up call
Waz
Roar Rookie
Not going to argue with that but I would say a good coach should be able to get better out of what we’ve got and what we’re producing from academies. Arnie is stuck between playing his favourite players, being seen to deliver on “the National Curriculum” and some watered down version of his preferred “Arnie ball”.
Para+Ten ISUZU Subway support Australian Football
Roar Rookie
Well we just have win our last four games in the WCQ and we are in. It will be tough, but it's achievable!
NoMates
Roar Rookie
Socceroos are the kings of play offs, this time however I don't see them going through. Is this the world cup Australia just had to miss.
Brainstrust
Roar Rookie
Turkey aren't highly ranked. Whose fault is it that Italy let Switzerland top the group and Portugal with Serbia. If Italy and Portugal were quality teams they would win their group . Sweden had Spain in their group fair enough, if they win their play off can go through. Where are the low ranked teams that can qualify. If UAE beat Australia and then UAE beat a South American then they deserve their spot, by doing that they would probably increase their ranking. That leaves the Kiwis who can do it in a one off that wont affect their ranking points as much.
Mark
Guest
Arnold is certainly not doing a fantastic job, but before you even get to the coach the biggest barrier to us qualifying is the poor quality of the squad. This is our 4th Asian campaign. The quality of the squad has got progressively worse across each one of them. And it doesn’t look like the 5th will buck the trend. Youth development here is in crisis. The fact Arnie is reaching out to guys who have not lived here for any meaningful time, but who qualify through family ties, says a lot about the quality of the squad and our youth development.
Brainstrust
Roar Rookie
One off in the heat against UAE thats actually a big problem,if its airconditioned then that makes a big difference. One leg game at sea level against altitude teams is a big advantage actually. Australia best hope would be Bolivia its 50-50 at sea level. Next would be Peru. Uruguay would be the worst of the likely teams.
Roberto Bettega
Roar Rookie
The UEFA qualification process is insane, Italy will end up against either Portugal or Turkey - all three countries are ranked higher than quite a few teams which will end up qualifying. Sweden are the ones who knocked out Italy last time, they have to get past the Czech Republic and then meet either Russia or Poland. It's insane the number of quality European teams who don't end up going to the World Cup.
Roberto Bettega
Roar Rookie
Playing the 4th best Nth/Central American team would be a dream run into a WC; NZ has had a big win there. For the socceroos, before we even get to meet a quality Sth American team in a one off game, we're likely to play someone like the UAE in Qatar in a one off game. All things being equal, you'd usually not be overly concerned about playing a relatively weak team such as the UAE, but these won't be normal circumstances.
The Phantom Commissioner
Roar Rookie
Ah well we had a good run.
Waz
Roar Rookie
I would hope we won’t need it. But I still say our biggest barrier to qualification is Graham Arnold - the wrong choice as coach in the first place and only proving that on a game by game basis.
AGO74
Guest
A poor November for the Socceroos just became quite bad. The playoffs are going to be one off games played in Qatar. Not two legged affairs. One leg in a neutral venue vs two legs home and away helps arguably. Still a tall order. Conmebol is wide open - could be one of 5 teams.