After only missing the finals once between 2007-2018, Hawthorn has now missed out on September action three years in a row, finishing in the bottom five for the last two of them.
Based on available evidence, they’ll be standing on the outside looking in for a good while yet, too.
After 17 years in charge that delivered four premierships and a reputation as the best coach in the land, Alastair Clarkson was moved on in unceremonious circumstances. Coaching changes are rarely smooth, and this one was anything but.
Still, Clarkson’s legacy was untarnished, and one of his premiership captains, Sam Mitchell, gets a clean slate to make his own mark.
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Mitchell has already promised that the Hawks will be more attacking under his watch than they were during the final years of Clarkson’s reign. Some footy fans will remember Matthew Knights saying the same when replacing Kevin Sheedy at Essendon after 27 years, and that didn’t end well.
The Hawks were already the fourth worst defence last season, and a more attacking style isn’t going to improve that record. We know new coaches can often take half a season to bed in a new game styles, so it may well be that ugly scenes await.
What’s new?
Well, as already explored above, the coach. And it’s a big one, following in giant metaphorical footsteps.
History in all codes is littered with examples of those that have failed to find success when following on from coaching greatness.
There is a lot of early Nathan Buckley about Sam Mitchell, and he took near enough to a decade to find his feet as a coach, and ultimately never really succeeded. The exacting no-nonsense standards as a player, expecting everyone to be the consummate professional like them, and giving short shrift to those that weren’t.
Call it what you like, confidence, self-belief, arrogance, but Sam Mitchell has it in spades, and does not appear to be a man given to self-doubt. Coaching and man management is a lot more nuanced than that, and becomes moreso every year. It’s a testing cauldron that Mitchell has entered, and he will be as fascinating a watch as a new coach as there’s been this century.
Star on the rise
Changkuoth Jiath caught the eye last season, causing a great deal of havoc for opposition teams with his athletic run from half-back.
The rangy backman can win his own ball in the air or mopping up at ground level, and repeatedly puts in breathtaking runs using his acceleration and agility to frankly look unstoppable. The more he’s able to get his hands on the football, the better it will be for the Hawks.
Jiath has now played 23 games after debuting in 2019, turns 23 halfway through this season, and he’s ready to go to another level after gaining the confidence of knowing he can shape matches.
Will Day is another that will excite Hawks fans, looking to make his mark after injury restricted him to only five games last year and 16 since being taken in the first round of the 2019 draft. He looks a natural footballer, and will no doubt be joining Jiath in rebounding from defence.
Changkuoth Jiath is a key part of the Hawks’ defence. (Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
Who’s under the pump?
Tom Mitchell, 28, and Jaegar O’Meara, 28 the next time he kicks a footy, are the engine room of the Hawks, and are at a tricky point of their careers.
O’Meara has played in one final after 10 years on AFL lists, and has been a fine player after being cursed with injury for long stages of his career. He is out of contract at the end of next year, and will then have a decision to make about where Hawthorn is at in the pursuit of meaningful success and whether he’ll be there to be a part of it.
Mitchell has played in two finals at the Hawks, both of them losing affairs, after leaving Sydney when they were a grand finalist. He’s won a Brownlow since then, so will go down in history as an acclaimed individual. For him, where does team success sit on his pecking order?
This time last year, Mitchell and O’Meara should have been vying with each other to be captain after the retirement of Ben Stratton, both experienced top end footballers in the prime of their careers. Yet, Ben McEvoy was selected instead ahead of both, placing question marks over their sense of commitment to team ahead of individual at that stage of their careers.
Can either or both of these players lead Hawthorn into their next period of contention?
Jaeger O’Meara of the Hawthorn Hawks runs with the ball during the AFL JLT Community Series match between the Western Bulldogs and the Hawthorn Hawks at Mars Stadium on March 3, 2018 in Ballarat, Australia. (Photo by Scott Barbour/Getty Images)
Best-case scenario
Hawthorn hits the ground running with the older brigade fit and firing, and they embrace the Sam Mitchell game plan to such an extent that they are sitting 3-1 with wins over North, Carlton and St Kilda in the early rounds.
The young key forwards of Lewis and Koschitzke improve again, giving the Hawks forwardline potency enough to kicking a winning score against most sides. The playmaking backline excels as a unit, making Hawthorn the most dangerous rebounding team in the competition.
Worst-case scenario
Sam Mitchell is a Mark Neeld-type that uses the stick of old rather than the modern-day carrot. The first half of the season is winless and the cloud of Alastair Clarkson casts a pall over the club.
Upheaval at board level would be sure to follow, and experienced players would start to be shopped around behind the scenes, making those loyal servants question their commitment and loyalty.
It’s not difficult to see a wooden spoon in their near future.
Best 22
B Jarman Impey Kyle Hartigan Will Day
HB Changkuoth Jiath James Sicily Blake Hardwick
C Liam Shiels Tom Mitchell Tom Phillips
HF Jack Gunston Mitch Lewis Chad Wingard
F Dylan Moore Jacob Koschitzke Luke Breust
Foll Ben McEvoy Jaegar O’Meara James Worpel
Int Daniel Howe Jack Scrimshaw Sam Frost Lachlan Bramble
Warren
Guest
I'm a long time Hawthorn member and my wife is same at Collingwood. I watch a lot of Pies games. Hawthorn are light years in front of Collingwood if we're comparing young talent. I'm really struggling to see who's going to step up at Collingwood and take over from Pendlebury and Sidebottom. Don't ask who's going to kick a score for them this year and there's no one even looking likely with some size from what I saw last season.
Bangkokpussey
Roar Rookie
The old rebuild to win a premiership theory. The last 5 out of 6 premierships have been won by three teams that have "rebuilt". The problem is its taken them on average 53 years to win a flag. Essendon has been "rebuilding" for over 20 years Carlton for 26 years and North for 25 years and I doubt there is anyone expecting any of them to win the flag in '22. GWS with all the help they were given still haven't got there. Hawthorn are still no closer after five years in spite of being one of the most successful clubs in the competition with arguably one of the best coaches of all time. If you consider 2008 as a successful rebuild, it still took 17 years for Hawthorn to get a flag. I'm not suggesting all those years were spent purely rebuilding but rebuilding IMHO is just a small part of a clubs overall success in the field. Some seem to put the horse before the cart, blaming Hawthorns' lack of success by holding on to players too long and not starting earlier. Past history would suggest that they still will have many years to go regardless had they started earlier or not. More importantly this season, it remains to be seen how much covid has distorted the last two seasons. Hopefully it wont in 2022.
Knackaz
Roar Rookie
Definitely a bottom 4 list, and for a few seasons ...
Knackaz
Roar Rookie
Sydney will be close to contention again in the next couple of years ...
Knackaz
Roar Rookie
Very similar hubris to Clarko ...
Knackaz
Roar Rookie
McEvoy as captain again in 2022 highlights the lack of leadership at the Hawks ...
Knackaz
Roar Rookie
Unlike the Bloods who have rebuilt by stealth with quality youth like Gulden (future Captain), Warner, McInerney, McDonald, Blakey, Wicks, McCartin, Campbell, Stevens, Rowbottom, Amartey, McLean ...
Bangkokpussey
Roar Rookie
With those two scenarios, you've left yourself a fair bit of wriggle room Cam.
Lewis
Guest
I think this article glosses over a few key points regarding Hawthorn going into 2022. Firstly, the return of James Sicily & Jack Gunston. If both get back into their All-Australian form they will help out Hawthorn immensely. It cannot be understated Sicily's importance to the club - he will be the next captain, contrary to people thinking it should be Tom Mitchell or Jaegar O'Meara. Gunston also finished equal 3rd in the Coleman medal when Hawthorn finished in the bottom 4 in 2020, his return shouldn't be understated either. Jarman Impey was on track for a career best season before he went down injured last year and when you add the likes of Jack Scrimshaw, Blake Hardwick, Changkuoth Jiath, Will Day and Denver Grainger-Barrass the Hawks have assembled a formidable young core for their backline. This gives Sam Mitchell something to work with. Secondly, the development of unmentioned players who are in their first to third year at the club who have yet to play 50 games. It should be noted that Dylan Moore had a terrific 2021, as did Jacob Koschitzke. Tyler Brockman also showed glimpses of what he can do. It sounds obvious but the more games these guys get under their belt the better. Also, someone who I think goes under the radar to people who don't follow Hawthorn is Jai Newcombe. He's got a full pre-season under his belt now and impressed in the games he did play after getting picked up in the MSD. This all goes without saying that Hawthorn have also just added Josh Ward (pick 7) as well as Sam Butler and Connor MacDonald early in the 2nd round. While I don't think that Hawthorn will make finals I certainly don't think their list is indicative of another bottom 4 finish. I think if all goes well Hawthorn can finish around the 10th-12th position on the ladder by the end of the year. That would be a great outcome if you asked me.
Luke
Guest
this is some bad journalism, no research whatsoever, a school kid could write this up, you've missed so much that the Hawks could improve immensely by getting their injured players back & new personnel that are capable of playing at the level Sam Mitchell wants.
Birdman
Roar Rookie
Hawks will finish top 12. Bookmark it.
shifty
Roar Rookie
So you can't wait 3yrs for a flag?
Dan Cleary
Guest
Bahhhh hahhhh!!!
berrlins
Roar Pro
Hawthorn have an ok list of youngsters but they don't have any out and out stars, any real talent that stands out, particularly in the midfield. It's not the worst midfield going around but it doesn't exactly inspire confidence either.
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
Pies had a stack of injured players out too Geoff...well above them? 1 win, 2 draws in fact...plus % is a great indicator by end season and the Pies was higher.
Macca
Roar Rookie
"I’m pretty sure someone who is 28 in 2022 will be 30 and not 31 in 2024." "will be 31 by the time the premiership turned up." Both Mitchell and Wingard will be 31 before the GF. "No point doing 7 year rebuilds" Unless you have to, which is the situation the Hawks are finding themselves in because they let tehri list slide too long. And I think you misjudge the volatility of the ladder. In 2019 the top 8 was Geelong (3rd in 2021), Brisbane (4th), Richmond (12th), Collingwood (17th), West Coast (9th), Giants (7th), Bulldogs (5th) & Essendon (8th). So only 3 teams dropped out of the 8 and one of them only fell to 9th and another was the Tigers.
Macca
Roar Rookie
IF the footage is as clear cut as you suggest his lawyers would have got all the charges dropped. Sounds to me like more Collingwood justification than reality.
Brian
Guest
I don't think we are the Dees but I'm pretty sure someone who is 28 in 2022 will be 30 and not 31 in 2024. My point is more that the system is designed to have teams go up and down. No point doing 7 year rebuilds its really about nailing the right player for the right salary cap price, having a core come together and of course the right gameplan. Melbourne missed the finals in 2019 & 2020. Collingwood, West Coast & Adelaide all played in GF in the last 5 years and are nowhere near it. It shows how variable things are year to year. Tigers the only side to kind of defy gravity but in Dusty they found a once in a generation player, without him they miss the 8. Absolutely anyone can win the 2024 flag because that's how the system works
Peter the Scribe
Roar Guru
But the fact we are going at this Macca means we are itchy for the season to start I'd say. Lots of pressure on your Blues this season thanks to "Leo" Sayer.
Macca
Roar Rookie
And the Dees won made the prelim in 2018. Did Hawthron make the prelim in 2021? Mitchell is 28 and 8 months, Wingard 28 and 6 months and O'meara is 28 in 2 weeks. Lets assume the Hawks replicate the Demons (which if you compared the Demons 2019 list to the Hawks you would see it is unlikely - for example you could look at a 27 year old Gawn compared to a 32 year old McEvoy) and called 2022 the Hawks equivalent of the Dees 2019 the 3 above will be 31 by the time the premiership turned up. Given the number of players who make it to 32 I find it unlikely all 3 will still be at the Hawks.