The Eels and Rabbitohs are in a fight just to make the eight

NRL season 2022 gets underway tonight with an awesome clash involving two sides I am virtually certain will make the finals.

The Sea Eagles and Panthers are two of just four sides I think are almost dead certainties to be playing football well into September.

There are also five sides I give virtually no chance of making the finals.

That leaves seven teams who will be fighting over four finals positions. While this view may well be met with great incredulity out in Sydney’s west and around Redfern, two of those sides that I think could well find themselves on the unhappy side of that stoush are the Parramatta Eels and the South Sydney Rabbitohs.

The four sides I believe are locks to make the 2022 finals are the Sydney Roosters, Melbourne Storm, Manly Warringah Sea Eagles and the reigning premiers, the Penrith Panthers.

In two of the most disrupted and chaotic seasons I have ever seen, the Panthers have lost a combined six games. That is remarkable in any period, let alone in these times. The chances of those results falling off a cliff are tiny.

After going winless for the first four rounds of 2021, The Sea Eagles exploded into form on the back of Tom Trbojevic’s brilliance, storming to the top four. If Tommy Turbo remains fit expect Manly’s form to be strong.

In the last decade, the worst ladder finish for the Storm has been sixth place in 2014. In 2015 they came fourth. Every other finish has been top two.

You can get $7.50 if you want to bet on the Storm missing the eight. Don’t do it.

The Roosters made fifth place in 2021 with an injury list that was as bad as I’ve ever seen. With Luke Keary and Joseph Manu back on deck, expect the Tri-Colours to be real contenders again.

How much influence will Keary have on young halves partner Sam Walker? (Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)

At the other end of the spectrum, I will be very surprised if the Wests Tigers, New Zealand Warriors, North Queensland Cowboys, Canterbur- Bankstown Bulldogs or the St George Illawarra Dragons manage to make the finals.

Another year on the road for the now Roger Tuivasa-Sheck-less Warriors is likely to prove too much for the undoubtedly talented squad.

While I rate Adam Doueihi highly – and Jackson Hastings and Oliver Gildart may prove to be great signings – I just can’t see how the Wests Tigers will improve enough to make the eight.

The Bulldogs have gone hard in the player market but I think there is too much for Matt Burton to do there to join it all together.

If anyone can get the Cowboys squad into a winning groove it is Todd Payten, I just don’t think he has the cattle he needs yet.

And while the Dragons could surprise me, they are one of the oldest squads in the NRL and things could go horribly wrong.

So, that leaves seven sides – the Gold Coast Titans, Cronulla Sutherland Sharks, Newcastle Knights, South Sydney Rabbitohs, Canberra Raiders, Brisbane Broncos and Parramatta Eels – fighting over four spots.

Who will win out and who will miss?

Brisbane Broncos

Why they’ll make the eight

The inclusion of Adam Reynolds at halfback and Kurt Capewell into this team will really augment the return of Kotoni Staggs and the brilliance that is Payne Haas. While there is still plenty of work for Kevin Walters and Ben Ikin to do, I believe the Broncos are back on track.

Why they won’t

There are still so many question, not least of which is the vital fullback position not really being owned. As well, who knows who will be five-eighth? The squad just isn’t quite there yet.

Prediction: They might sneak eighth spot, but they’ll probably miss out.

Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks

Why they’ll make the eight

For a bloke who hasn’t controlled a first grade team before, there are huge raps of Craig Fitzgibbon as a man manager and strategist.

Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images

He has done very well bringing in Nicho Hynes, Cam McInnes and Dale Finucane to join existing stars Wade Graham, Will Kennedy and Jesse Ramien. The skill and experience that trio brings will surely see the Sharks win more than they lose.

Why they won’t

There are a few key players past their prime. Andrew Fifita, Aiden Tolman and the mercurial Matt Moylan head that list. Teams can’t afford to be carrying players in the COVID-19 era.

Prediction: The Sharks will be better than last year and will surely make at least the lower part of the eight.

Newcastle Knights

Why they’ll make the eight

The Knights haven’t done too much recruiting, with Dane Gagai returning to the Novocastrians. However, a look at their squad sees a pretty well-rounded side. Star Kalyn Ponga is playing for a big next contract and he’ll be supported by the likes of David Klemmer, Kurt Mann, Mitch Barnett, Daniel Saifiti and Tyson Frizell. That’s plenty of experience.

Why they won’t

Adam Clune has a mountain to climb, as does his likely halves partner Jake Clifford. The losses of Mitchell Pearce and Connor Watson were significant and a lot of what is good at the Knights is past its best.  

Prediction: Knights to miss the 2022 finals.

Gold Coast Titans

Why they’ll make the eight

Last season the Titans showed a fair bit at points. Tino Fa’asuamaleaui was outstanding and will captain the side in 2022. He’s got David Fifita along side him, a player who can bust games open all by himself. Then you’ve got AJ Brimson and Jayden Campbell to provide dynamic attack. They’ve got to be a show.

(Photo by Mark Metcalfe/Getty Images)

Why they won’t

Brimson’s hamstrings are dodgy, Campbell is just a kid, Fifita can and does go missing and – while there are huge wraps on Toby Sexton at half back – he’s a rookie in a vital position. As well, the squad drops off to a lot of honest toilers and journeymen after the cream on the top.

Prediction: Titans will look good in parts but will miss the 2022 finals.

Canberra Raiders

Why they’ll make the eight

The Raiders squad is actually as deep as I’ve ever seen it, both in the forwards and the backs. With Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad and Nic Cotric returning to the back three, Adam Elliott joining and Joseph Tapine hitting career-best form, the Raiders could return to their great gritty best of 2019 and 2020.

Why they won’t

The pre-season couldn’t have gone much worse for the Raiders, losing Jordan Rapana to suspension, and losing star recruit and rising star Jamal Fogarty and Harley Smith-Shields respectively to knee injuries. The Fogarty injury has potentially exposed a lack of depth in the halves, with a lot now riding on young Brad Schneider to step up and guide the team around the field.

Prediction: The Raiders will make the top eight and maybe even the top four.

South Sydney Rabbitohs

Why they’ll make the eight

The Rabbitohs made the grand final last year. Sure, they’ve lost Adam Reynolds but they’ve still got a brilliant roster, led by Cody Walker, Campbell Graham, Jai Arrow, Cam Murray and Latrell Mitchell. They might not reach the peaks of last year but surely they’ll make the eight.

Why they won’t

In what world do you think that Adam Reynolds can be adequately replaced with a rookie like Lachlan Ilias?

Sure, the kid has showed some form, but Reynolds was a proven general and gave Cody Walker a lot of freedom to do his thing. A thing he does so well. The Rabbitohs might be a bit lost in 2022. Plus, there is a fair record of sides falling away dramatically post Wayne Bennett.

Prediction: The Rabbitohs form will drop but they’ll make the eight.

Parramatta Eels

Why they’ll make the eight

I led the charge last year to say that the Eels were right to be deeply aggrieved by the trainer stoppage in their semi-final loss to the Panthers. Had play not been inappropriately stopped for a Panthers injury, I reckon the Eels may well have won that match and who knows how far they could have gone.

Their side is hungry and young, without a player over 30 years old in the squad. Surely the fire in their bellies will see them build on last year’s near miss.

Why they won’t

The Eels did finish the season well. However, they finished in sixth spot after the home-and-away season, with five fewer wins than the third-placed Rabbitohs. While their side has some great cattle – Junior Paulo, Reed Mahoney, Clint Gutherson, Maika Sivo, Ryan Matterson and Mitchell Moses – it is not strong across the board like a Roosters or Panthers side.

Further, it must be unsettling that the likes of Reed Mahoney and Isaiah Papali’i have their departure cards already filled out. Instead of the powerful kick returns of Blake Ferguson and Sivo, the Eels will be relying on Bailey Simonsson and Sean Russell to get them that vital ground.

It won’t take too much to go wrong for the Eels to miss the finals in 2022.

Prediction: The Eels will make the finals but it will look shaky at times.