While losing to the North Queensland Cowboys was not ideal, the Raiders are presently suffering some bad luck that, when it passes, will see them be very competitive.
But right now they need a win to steady the ship or they risk becoming an easy target for the media. Just like an old pack animal is for predators.
The joke goes that there is a herd of wildebeest stampeding across the savannah pursued by a pride of lions.
One wildebeest turns to another and says, “I hope we can outrun these lions!”.
The other wildebeest replies, “I just hope I can outrun you!”.
In the NRL, as in most pursuits, you really don’t want to be the slowest wildebeest.
The slowest wildebeest gets caught and feasted on by the lions, and then their carcass is picked over by the vultures.
The dream for every NRL coach is to achieve the ultimate success: winning the premiership. However, almost as important is the need to not be the club doing it the toughest.
It is hard enough to right a ship when you aren’t being heavily scrutinised by the media. When you are it can be almost impossible.
Right now there are a number of clubs who’ve had less than ideal starts to the season. The South Sydney Rabbitohs, the New Zealand Warriors, the Manly Warringah Sea Eagles and the Wests Tigers are all winless after two rounds. Those that lose this weekend will start to be under incredible scrutiny from the press.
Just above those sides are the Canberra Raiders.
You’d be forgiven for thinking that coach Ricky Stuart must have run over someone’s dog and busted a truck full of mirrors.
Just three months ago the future was again looking bright for the Raiders, with almost a full roster of players, COVID-19 game day restrictions lessened and a spine that had experience and skill.
In no time at all that has soured.
New halfback signing Jamal Fogarty injured his knee in the trials and will miss at least half the season.
Up-and-coming centre Harley Smith-Shields ruptured his ACL and will miss the whole year.
And just seven minutes into the season hooker Josh Hodgson did his ACL and will miss his final season with the Raiders.
Adding to all that, his side has been beset by players pulling out due to an assortment of minor injuries, suspensions and of course COVID-19.
(Photo by Albert Perez/Getty Images)
This state of affairs came to a thunderous crescendo last Saturday night when his charges not only failed to put to rest their nightmare 2021 loss to the North Queensland Cowboys in Townsville, where he watched a 24-6 lead transform into a 26-24 loss, but actually also added a sequel horror story.
Their 26-6 loss was arguably more devastating in that the Green Machine never seemed to be in a match that they were widely tipped to win.
In the aftermath of the loss those who visited the various platforms the Raiders fans utilise saw an outpouring of anger, disbelief and calls for severe recriminations. Barely a player escaped mention in the calling for axings.
And of course there were even some calls for Stuart himself to move on.
This is not a new paradigm for Stuart at all.
While the football gods gifted him with sublime playing skills that saw him win three premierships as a player – with only his 1991 groin and 1993 ankle injuries arguably denying him two more – as a coach he has experienced constant harsh scrutiny and vilification.
I have in the past defended the man and his record. And I will continue to.
(Photo by Mark Nolan/Getty Images)
Any calls for Stuart to be moved on from the Raiders come from two primary sources: those external to the club and the fan base, who care nothing for either; and those within the fan base who are flailing for reasons that their beloved club is struggling.
Neither have much thought – if any – for a practical replacement. Some don’t care a damn about the Raiders’ ongoing fortunes. Others haven’t really considered that you must have a good alternative ready to go if you remove your coach.
What the Raiders need now is not to totally upturn the applecart.
What they need now is some luck.
They need a win to steady the ship. They need a win to keep away the circling media vultures.
Last week I raised the stat that only five teams out of the 48 that had played in the 24 NRL grand finals to date had lost their opening two matches of the season. One of the questions the commenters raised was why it matters when during the season the losses take place. Their logic was that surely two losses in Round 13 and 14 were as detrimental as back-to-back losses first up.
But that isn’t true.
The issue with poor early-season form is that it unbalances a side. Straight away there is pressure on the team to get wins. Straight away there are questions over their systems, structures and plans. Later in the season there will most probably be some wins and decent form that will keep away the worst panic and recriminations. Early in the season those laurels do not yet exist to rest on.
(Photo by Jason McCawley/Getty Images)
The media – ever hungry for stories of turmoil and unrest – circle the clubs with poor results like vultures, willing the struggling team to become carrion that they can feast on to provide the almighty content that their masters demand.
They search for cracks and leaks. Trying to break players and officials off from the herd.
Even in the most united clubs the pressure builds. You can bet that right now at both the Sea Eagles and the Rabbitohs they will be absolutely desperate to account for the Sydney Roosters and Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs respectively to stop the vultures circling, settle their ships and keep the united front that is essential if you are going to be successful.
Stuart now finds himself going into Round 3 with a win and a loss, and if the Raiders are one from three after three rounds, they will be under more pressure than either the Rabbitohs or the Sea Eagles.
Why? Because Ricky Stuart under pressure is a known winner for the media.
Any cursory scan of social media over the past two decades will show just how much more derision Stuart comes in for than Des Hasler. And Jason Demitriou isn’t really that well known yet, let alone a common target to spew bile and vitriol upon.
Not only does Ricky carry with him the enmity of some rugby league supporters from his playing days, but he cops it especially from Roosters fans (to whom he delivered their first premiership in two decades), the Cronulla Sutherland Sharks fans (whose team he somehow managed to get within a whisker of a grand final) and the Parramatta Eels fans (for whom he delivered the player clean-out that everyone except them knew they needed to have) for perceived failings in his coaching.
(Photo by Albert Perez/Getty Images)
Targeting Stuart is a surefire winner for the press. It is their equivalent of shooting fish in a barrel.
He’ll react.
He wears his heart on his sleeve. He is competitive. He is not going to pretend to be happy when he isn’t.
For some reason we have an expectation that coaches should stay calm at all times. While it is definitely the ideal approach, it just isn’t always achievable.
People don’t tune in to see how calm someone can be, but they’ll always tune in to see someone totally misplace their excrement.
The NRL is all about driving content for their broadcast partners. This season we saw that include two preseason trials per team. Also included is the requirement that coaches must attend and participate in post-game press conferences.
While those in power at NRL HQ did not fine the Roosters for their trainer – who was on the field illegally – for interfering with the actual play during the 2019 grand final, they will absolutely fine any coach who does not front up and deliver the required content to the broadcast partners.
Stuart knows this all too well, and he – along with all the other coaches – walk a tightrope of trying to meet those obligations while also representing the interests of his team and avoiding fines.
When the results aren’t good and the media vultures are attacking you, walking that tightrope is very difficult.
You can be sure that – especially if the Raiders results deteriorate – senior members of the rugby league media will start heavily circling their Green Machine prey and maybe even make one of their extremely rare visits to the nation’s capital to come to Ricky Stuart’s press conferences to personally poke the bear.
Ricky will have to try and stay calm while at the same time sticking up not just for himself but for his players and staff too.
The best way to avoid this scenario is to win matches.
So Ricky needs some luck.
He needs his players to stop getting injuries.
He needs them to stop testing positive to COVID-19.
He needs them not to be suspended.
He needs them to make their tackles and play the ball properly.
He needs them to hold the ball and to catch the ball.
He needs the fifth tackle options to be good and to come off.
He needs new kids Brad Schneider, James Schiller, Matt Timoko, Semi Valemei, Xavier Savage and Adrian Trevilyan to step up and be as good as he’d hoped them to be.
This week he comes up against a Titans side that destroyed his charges to the tune of 44-6 in Round 16 of 2021.
He’ll be painfully aware that the Raiders have managed to score only 30 points so far this season while the Titans have scored 48. He’ll also be very aware that if they lose this game. they could very well go one from five given that they have Manly and the Melbourne Storm both coming up.
He needs a win to steady the ship and keep unease away from his team. He needs his wildebeest to not be the slowest.
Because as sure as night follows day, if the Raiders put together a couple of wins, the media scrutiny will quickly transfer to a slower wildebeest.
MadgicSH
Roar Rookie
Have you ever tried to play ANY sport in 30° and 100% humidity?
MadgicSH
Roar Rookie
It’s very hard for those who live in Canberra to play in a sauna like Townsville! And does anyone seriously want Hodgo or Croker back? EVER??
Tim Buck 3
Roar Rookie
The ACT Labor government has a good record for terrible ideas. 1. Canberra's new town centre and suburbs were built to the north of the Barton Highway, the main road from Melbourne. Rather than build a bridge they opted for the cheap and dangerous roundabout. Incoming trucks lost their loads and traffic was chaos at peak hour. 2. They then decided to add lights to help the traffic flow so now we have the "lightabout". 3. They are now talking of collecting rubbish every fortnight rather than weekly. Trials are underway and those with babies have two weeks of dirty nappies.
Adam
Roar Guru
Yeah it's pretty close to impossible to reduce the public service. Interestingly the SA Lavor party ran with that messaging which was strange
Tim Buck 3
Roar Rookie
The LNP always run with the promise of a cutting spending and increasing efficiency with simple fixes like merging departments or cutting programs. Some cuts and improvements have been made but it is mainly an election strategy to attract voters.
Leaguesliterarylovechild
Roar Rookie
You're loyal fan Tim. The problem is that the guts of this article could have been written about the Raiders in at least six of the nine seasons that Ricky Stuart has coached them.
The Barry
Roar Guru
Geez, it’s a bit early in the season for the ‘all we need is luck’ call to go out…
Dandragon
Roar Rookie
And your Sky “news” hat isn’t crushing what’s left of your brain?
Glory Bound
Roar Rookie
I agree with you Geoff. I think Ricky is safe. After all we are only 2 games into the season. Like I have been saying Souths were 1-3 in 2014 before wimning the premiership and Manly were 0-4 last year before getting to the preliminary final. To all the panic merchants preaching doom and gloom, the sky isn't falling. It's just that your tin foil hats as too tight.
Reason
Guest
You forgot the part where he has to actually pick Savage and Trevilyan instead of the dead set plodders he has named in front of them instead, MrGilbert.
Geoff from Bruce Stadium
Roar Rookie
Don't reckon he'll go until he walks. Where else would he go? The board won't sack him - and to be fair there aren't too many other coaches out there bashing the door down.
Glory Bound
Roar Rookie
So if Ricky ain't going nowhere, is he about to be sacked Geoff. Or am I taking a double negative too literally? :stoked:
Randy
Roar Rookie
As a Raiders fan I don't hold much hope for the Raiders chances this year, or Stuart's ability to get this team in competing for a premiership again. Stuart definitely has his strengths as a coach -he can be a good motivator and for some strange reason players want to play for him. He speaks out for the club and tries to hold the NRL/refs accountable, although sometimes his efforts are misguided....a lesser personality might just stay quiet. As far as tactics, bench use and selections go I think he stinks. Most of our tries come from individual brilliance or a forward crashing over from close to the line, this was even true in 2019. He has put together a very strong forward pack so why is our go forward always so average and we concede so many metres? He's stubborn as a mule and obviously has a very inflated ego - almost seems entitled to success. His track record with developing halves is woeful. You would think the greatest ever in game kicker could show them a thing or two. Anyway... hope he proves me wrong but I also hope the club is at least thinking about putting him on notice.
Hard Yards
Roar Rookie
If all they need is luck, they better give the casinos a swerve.
Nat
Roar Guru
I don’t think I would go that far. He has had some average seasons and average teams but any decent team only needs 2-3 players to step right up to be contenders. In 2019, CNK, Wighton and Papa were 3 of the very best in their respective positions. In fact their whole pack was (arguably) the best in the comp. So a GF appearance and a few dodgy calls was fair recognition to his abilities. My question has always been his ability to mentor a decent half to full potential.
JVGO
Guest
They used up all their luck in Rd 1. They were horrible. Even with a ton of possession they were ridiculously lucky.
Larry1950
Guest
Surely any coach that loses their first choice halfback & hooker to serious injury in that short space of time is entitled to some wriggle room to identify the best options going forward. Ricky ‘is’ the raiders, can’t see any acceptable replacement. Long article to state the obvious, it’s round 3 this weekend.
Rob
Guest
With due respect I’d take 5 out of the 6 Cowboys in that match up. Papalii gets the points over McClean. Nanai, Gilbert are only getting into their second season but they certainly aren’t inferior to their opposite. There was a reason HN dropped the ball cold coming of the goal line. He saw Gilbert, Hess and Robson coming. The Cowboys are just no longer stationary or back pedalling in defence like in previous years. Ask Frawley and Whitehead about getting whacked by Talaugi and Holmes. Luki and Nemea don’t shy away either IMO.
Glory Bound
Roar Rookie
Brooks should have been flicked years ago and the Tigers should have retained Tedesco and Moses. That's where everything went pear-shaped for the Tigers. Then there was the whole Benji and Farah fiasco. The club has been shooting themselves in the foot for years. I genuinely feel for their fans.
Geoff from Bruce Stadium
Roar Rookie
Croker is back in the NSW cup team this weekend - if he plays - bulging disc in his back. There are a few old crocks out there. One less with Hodgson gone for the year.