AFL Saturday Study: Forget that final quarter, these Pies are for real

At three quarter time at the MCG, the legion of Collingwood fans that had just witnessed one of the club’s most stunning 30 minutes in recent memory would have been forgiven for taking the lid off.

After consecutive strong wins with the asterisk of being against lesser opposition in St Kilda and Adelaide, this was a performance to hang your hat on: against reigning preliminary finalist Geelong, and a defence as miserly as any in the competition, the Pies piled on goal, after goal, after goal. Nine of them, to be exact, their most in a quarter since 2016.

Rampant out of the middle – they won clearances 13-5 – and ruthlessly efficient inside 50, the black and white wave that smothered the Cats was unstoppable. Darcy Cameron and Brody Mihocek ruled the skies, while the moment the ball hit ground level, Jamie Elliott, Josh Daicos and a host of others were ready to feast on the crumbs.

It was breathtaking. So too, though, was what happened next.

The Cats, virtually unsighted in the third term, came to life in a rush. At the break, the commentators said they’d need to keep Collingwood virtually scoreless – they’d concede one point. Their midfield, soundly beaten for much of the night, flipped the switch – a 42-28 contested possession differential coming up. They blanketed the Pies’ electrifying ball movement in the simplest way possible – they hardly let them get hands on it.

The Pies have made no secret of their attacking, chaotic ball movement plans this year, and it was admirable to see them occasionally still take risks even in the final term with momentum coming against them. That style is a double-edged sword, though: look at Jordan De Goey miscuing a handball in the middle in the final term, looking to open up the corridor, only to see it turned over for the Cats to earn a scoring opportunity the other way.

Even veteran Scott Pendlebury, normally the game’s coolest customer, erred in the final term trying to bite off too much: with the Pies just a point down with a little under three minutes to go, a wonky exit from defence was swiftly sent back over his head to Jeremy Cameron. Game, set, match.

The biggest risk of all about the Pies’ plan, especially when their midfield is overwhelmed, remains their shaky backline. Geelong’s accuracy, and their own lack of the same, made it a more urgent issue than it might have been, but conceding nine goals to the Tom Hawkins-Cameron combination isn’t what premiership sides do. Six of them came from Cameron alone, the former Giant finding space at will in the final term to lead hard, kick truly and be the key player on the field.

It was a similar story in Round 1 against St Kilda: when their midfield erred, even for only a few minutes, the Saints piled on goals, with a tall in Jack Hayes firing. Once might be bad luck: twice in three weeks, and there’s a problem. Jeremy Howe is many things, but a monster-stopper he ain’t.

Nevertheless, there are clearly far more positives than negatives for Pies fans to cling to. This is clearly a side on the rise, with an eye-catching, workable game style that should stand up throughout the year. Remember, the Cats still remain a formidable force on the AFL scene; and for three quarters, and one especially, the Pies more than had their number.

Losses like this can debilitate a young team, or they can galvanise them. Now with obvious chinks in the armour to iron out, coach Craig McRae has on his hands a teachable moment for his charges: keep playing aggressively, but show a measure of restraint in situations like the one that presented itself on Saturday night.

Right now, the sky is still the limit for a group that oozes class – you don’t just pile on nine goals in a quarter against the Cats lightly.

As for Geelong, nothing about that final quarter should come as a surprise. When they want to – and for most of this year, they’ve wanted to – they can be just about the most dazzling team going around. Once their midfield takes control, the strength of their backline and power of their forwards, Cameron and Hawkins especially, will take some beating for even the best sides this year.

But, of course, the Cats aren’t going to be judged on what they do until September arrives, and we see whether the tweaks they’ve made over summer will this time stand up in finals.

Jack Ginnivan celebrates a goal. (Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

Suns fizzle, Shinboners shredded: Worrying signs for Saturday’s other losers

There are far more concerns over Saturday’s other two losers: Gold Coast were let off the hook by a GWS outfit in cruise control, while North Melbourne ran into a Brisbane outfit keen for a spot of bunny-bashing in the Brisbane heat.

For a side he has now led for five seasons, Stuart Dew still hasn’t been able to fix the Suns’ worrying tendency to switch off as early as the first quarter – it was clear from the outset at Giants Stadium that they were right off the boil.

Just as the loss of Gary Ablett during 2014 ripped a hole out of a midfield unable to lift to replace him, so too did Touk Miller’s lack of influence, tagged into submission by first Lachie Ash and then Matt de Boer, see the Suns get battered around the ball.

It might be harsh to expect Matt Rowell and Noah Anderson to stand up against a season Giants’ midfield, but their complete lack of influence while opposite numbers Tim Taranto and Tom Green did as they pleased was concerning. Rowell at least tried hard defensively with 13 tackles: regularly butchering the ball and unable to stand up to Green, it was Anderson’s worst game in a good while.

There were some glimpses – Mabior Chol’s strong hands and accurate kicking will be very useful when combined with Ben King in coming years, Jack Lukosius had stints further up the ground where he looked much more at home, and Levi Casboult marked everything that came his way. But it doesn’t count for much if your midfield is getting smashed – and unfortunately for the Suns, now that other sides know it’s Miller or bust, the tags will continue to come.

As for North Melbourne, it’s two seasons in a row they’ve been pummelled by 100+ points in Round 3. Yes, they were depleted by the absence of Luke Davies-Uniacke and Tarryn Thomas to injury; and yes, the trip to the Gabba is now just about the toughest ask in footy (unless, of course, it’s in a final).

But against an opponent that sensed a kill rather than an easy cruise, the Roos wilted. What followed was, bar none, the year’s most pathetic performance to date.

Every stat line was another obliteration – 81 more disposals, 61 more marks, 38 more contested possession, 38 more inside 50s. The Lions even won the tackle count, while the Roos scrubbed 16 more clangers. If Charlie Cameron had have been able to hit the side of a barn door, kicking 2.6 for the night, this could easily have been a 150-point margin.

This was the performance that the Roos were supposed to have left behind them with their strong finish to 2021. The North-bashers will come with the usual snide relocation barbs after this, as they always do after a heavy loss – but even if that’s over the top, at some point North Melbourne are going to have to stand for more.

Aaron Hall deserves plenty of credit for having resurrected his career, and remains their best user out of defence – but this moment here to hand Jarryd Lyons a goal on a silver platter would almost get him dropped if he played for Melbourne.

What they should have dished out was something in the mould of what West Coast did to them the week before: beset by COVID and with a glorified WAFL side, the Eagles scrapped, tackled, ran hard and made up for their lack of polish with sheer desperation. They gave themselves a chance to win, and were rightly praised for it despite defeat.

It’s okay to be not good. It’s okay to be beaten. And it’s okay to be a building side. But North fans deserved better than for them to throw in the towel as they did at the Gabba.