With a six-point lead on the NRL ladder and star halves Nathan Cleary and Jarome Luai unavailable across the final five weeks of the home-and-away season, the Penrith Panthers face an awkward month ahead and a potential turning point in their season.
In the quest for a rare repeat premiership, the men from the foot of the mountains have taken all before them in 2022, just as they did in the two seasons prior, collectively winning 56 of 63 regular season matches across that period.
Despite the disappointment of a runner-up finish in 2020 when the Storm did what the Storm do all so well in what was a stunning grand final, Ivan Cleary’s men made amends the following season, exorcising the demons and prevailing over the Bunnies by 14-12 in the decider.
2022 loomed as another likely minor premiership for the team with the most dominant record of recent times and the narrative played as many expected across the opening 20 weeks of the current campaign.
Yet with the home-and-away finish line in sight and the team cruising into a finals campaign where they would enter every match as clear favourites, the speed bumps and stumbling blocks have now appeared in spades.
All teams suffer injuries at crucial times during NRL seasons, yet thanks to Cleary’s brain explosion and dangerous tackle on Dylan Brown and the serious knee injury suffered by Luai, the Panthers have lost two of the most important cogs in their attacking wheel.
Sure, there is plenty of talent across the park to potentially hold the fort whilst the two halves occupy the pine and prepare for a return in Week 1 of the NRL finals, yet there is a fair question to be asked around the extended squad’s effectiveness without them.
Will the Panthers simply remain the systematic and brutal force that has taken all before them over the last three seasons, or will the extended absence of the two men who are so fundamental to their success translate into a significantly weakened Penrith and subsequently lead to a sputtering entry into the finals?
In essence, the question becomes whether the systemic machine that Ivan Cleary has built in the west is sustainable, despite the absence of his son and a significant other.
The two men coming in to fill the vacated roles are quality young players. Jaeman Salmon slots in at five-eighth as something of a utility player yet to firmly establish himself as an NRL starter, and Dolphins-bound Sean O’Sullivan assumes the halfback position left bare by Cleary.
With limited experience in the halves for both at the top level, the Panthers will no doubt be required to lean on others if they are to successfully navigate the final five weeks of the season without suffering too much damage, or worse, forgoing their position at the top of the ladder.
However, the best coaches plan for contingencies. They build clubs from the ground up and develop something of a one man out, one man in culture that serves them well in challenging periods.
We have seen exactly that from the Panthers at various times across the last three years, where Origin representation and injury concerns have rarely derailed their progress.
Penrith is an elite environment where the young kid promoted as a replacement understands the offensive calls used in the top grade and fits comfortably into the defensive structures that Cleary has implemented right across the NRL’s most impressive club.
Admittedly, the talent of the men stepping in is well below that of the players absent, yet modern thinking in professional sport is that an effective ‘system’ overrides the necessity for individuals alone to win matches.
In essence, barring mass injuries or unavailability, Ivan Cleary will no doubt believe that he has created a way, a culture and a method, within which every available player feels comfortable stepping in to and therefore capable of maintaining the level of excellence he demands.
Upcoming matches against the Storm, Rabbitohs and Cowboys will test that belief in spades and should any drop off in form occur, Penrith will be under the pump to right the ship immediately in the first week of the finals.
It will be an interesting watch, with the obviously firm foundations of the Penrith system tested by the absence of two of its biggest stars.
Will the dam wall hold, or are the losses of Cleary and Luai simply too much to overcome?
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matth
Roar Guru
Just a question of whether he’s ready yet and who he needs beside him. I’m guessing Bennett will be conservative and us O’Sullivan and Milford at first
Panthers
Guest
Could be so. Especially after playing in 2 GF’s in a row. However, if Cleary comes back with something to prove ( with Luai ). None of the opposition there are unbeatable.
Panthers
Guest
The best half by far going there is Katoa. In another class to O’Sullivan.
Panthers
Guest
Could be second or third. Still, anywhere in the top 4 & still a chance. They have some good finals experience now.
Chris
Guest
Turuva , Jenkins & Iongi could all be star backs. Hopefully for Penrith. Staines has been played out of position & is a very good fullback. If he goes somewhere else they need to play him at fullback.
Panthers
Guest
Centre of the year last year says otherwise.
London Panther
Roar Rookie
Hard to test the counterfactual, but most Penrith fans would view what actually occurred as an acceptable outcome…
The Barry
Roar Guru
He was last year too… :stoked:
London Panther
Roar Rookie
I don’t think so TB; with Luai injured he would become the best 6 at the club…. :silly:
matth
Roar Guru
This gives O’Sullivan a nice run in first grade before he takes the reins at The Dolphins, so I’m happy. Knock offs a couple more rough edges before you hand him over please Ivan!
Cam
Roar Rookie
Initial gut feel was Panthers still have heaps of class players and would be ok. But on reflection, I'm not so sure. They have a really tough draw to close out the season and Cleary and Luia have their fingers on pretty much everything at the Panthers. They are the next best thing to irreplaceable. Matches played when those two have been out were against softish opposition, so you can't get read from that. Last week's hammering by the Eels might be closer to form moving forward, especially if we see further carnage with their squad over the next few weeks. The Storm are a pretty good example of what happens when you lose 5 or 6 first graders to injury and suspension. I think Panthers will drop 3 or 4 of the last 5 matches, but will bounce back with the return of their halves.
The Barry
Roar Guru
They’d probably still play him out of position…
Tim Carter
Roar Pro
Not going to happen, and you know it.
Muzz
Guest
Back to back is nearly impossible in the modern game. They will run out of fuel and be eliminated in the preliminary final.
Abhi Beckert
Guest
All valid points - how many of those were against other top 4 sides? Also how much motivation does the team have, since they have to lose three games to miss out on the minor premiership. And honestly even if they do come second, who cares?
Albo
Roar Rookie
100% souvalis . Turuva could be anything , and an ideal type to bring on if you need to make something happen. I'm still waiting on Charlie to make his first line break for the team ?
Tony
Roar Guru
I think the key for Penrith will be the form of JFH. Hasn't been at his best lately. Maybe he's carrying an injury.
souvalis
Roar Rookie
Savage isn’t the safest fullback under a bomb in the NRL, he’s going to cop it. Time coach Ivan punted Charlie and gave Turuva a run off the bench.
Birdy
Roar Rookie
I wonder how many Penrith doubters watched the battle of the west last week. 12 men for 60 minutes. Undefeated from now till the end for mine.
JennyFromPenny
Guest
I think he'd jump at the chance and play for nix.