The top eight rated: Which teams can actually win the flag?

Last week we looked at the bottom ten teams, the clubs that won’t be featuring in September.

Now we turn our attention to those that are playing finals football and assess who is a realistic chance of holding up the cup and which teams are just making up the numbers.

8. Western Bulldogs

There’s always one or two easy kills in the first week of finals, and it just so happens that this year they are playing each other in an elimination final.

The difference with the Dogs is that we’ve seen them make two grand finals in the last six seasons from outside the top four. Last year they even lost their last three home-and-away matches before turning their form around. This year they have gone two wins, two losses, two wins and two losses in their last eight matches.

Nothing’s come easily for the Dogs this year. They have never quite clicked, with their entire midfield seemingly less than the sum of their parts. A lot falls onto the shoulders of Aaron Naughton and Cody Weightman up forward, and there’s not a lot of faith in the key defenders to get the job done.

Still, Luke Beveridge is proven as both a madman and a genius, and if there’s ever a coach you’d back to go to Perth and win an elimination final, it’s him. Which is exactly what he did in 2016.

7. Richmond Tigers

The beauty of September this year is that the two bottom-ranked teams have either made a grand final or won a flag in five of the last six seasons. They know how to get there and they know how to win. The Tigers have won ten of their 12 finals since 2017.

Richmond has certainly played football as good as anything they produced in their premiership years, but their problem has been that it hasn’t lasted anywhere near as long as in their glory days. Their biggest weakness is getting heavily scored against too quickly.

With the pre-finals bye, it is about which team strikes September in their best form and puts together their best month of the season. The Tigers have won four in a row and are playing with unity and cohesion, and in Tom Lynch they have the form key forward of the competition. They tick the box of a team peaking at the right time.

Can they win four in a row? They might not even win one. But opposition teams will be sleeping with the light on as long as they are alive.

(Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

6. Brisbane Lions

The Lions have been the biggest finals failures of the last half-decade. They’ve finished in the top four three times, including the top two twice, and won more home-and-away games than any team, yet they have only one finals win to show for it.

Brisbane under Chris Fagan have had no problem scoring but have never defended like premiership material. Top two for scoring across 2019-22, they have ranked seventh, seventh, fifth and tenth in defence. The premiership teams have ranked fourth, third, second and first in the last four seasons.

Everything points to a shoot-out in the first final between the Lions and Tigers at the Gabba, but sometimes things aren’t that obvious. Clearances will be important, scoring from them more so.

Cam Rayner played all 22 games this year, Noah Answerth 21 and Marcus Adams 18. None will be there on Thursday night. Even if they win, Brisbane then face three weeks on the road. Once again, it won’t be their year.

(Photo by Russell Freeman/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

5. Fremantle Dockers

The Dockers hit September with a little bit of momentum, winning their last three games, including one against their rivals on Saturday, the Western Bulldogs. But they’ve been anything but convincing in their other two, against bottom-three teams West Coast and GWS. Before that they were thumped by Melbourne, drew with an out-of-sorts Richmond and lost comfortably to Sydney.

It doesn’t scream premiership contention, particularly for a playing group that hasn’t played finals together.

In the games they haven’t won this year Fremantle have an average score of 48 points. It’s woefully inadequate and tells us that they simply can’t score when the heat goes up and the clamps go on, which doesn’t make a recipe for finals success. However, we do know they can defend well, which keeps them in games.

Nat Fyfe has been ruled out through injury, and there are question marks over Rory Lobb, Griffin Logue and Matt Taberner, so all is not rosy at the Dockers.

If Freo were playing anyone else this week, they’d be the easybeats of the first week, but being up against the Dogs gives them a chance. That’s as far as they’ll go, but it will have been a good grounding for next year.

(Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

4. Collingwood Magpies

Collingwood are certainly the top-four team that all others want to play, the law of averages figuring their Houdini act will run out soon enough. But my goodness, their belief is intoxicating, and their run of wins has ensured that this version of the Magpies will live long in the memory.

Against the choking Carlton, the Pies lost contested possessions by 44, clearances by 12 and inside 50s by 21. Against Melbourne in Round 21 they lost those stats by 24, 20 and 24 respectively. It is unsustainable, as coach Craig McRae has acknowledged.

Sydney handled them without much trouble in Round 22 in winning contested possessions by 29 and clearances by seven. Finally a scoreboard reflected general play when the Pies were involved.

What Collingwood have in their favour, assuming Geelong beat them on Saturday, is that they will land on the soft side of the semi-final draw and should make their way to a prelim. From there, anything can happen – but it probably won’t.

3. Sydney Swans

The Swans have almost become a contender by stealth in the second half of 2022.

After losing to Essendon – yes, Essendon! – in Round 16, Sydney were hanging onto eighth spot by percentage only, having also been poleaxed by Port Adelaide and Gold Coast, with other losses to Brisbane and Carlton thrown in. There were also wins against Melbourne and Richmond, but everything pointed to an inconsistent team still learning their way.

Since that loss to the Bombers they’ve tasted only victory and have now won seven in a row to command a double chance. They may have been overshadowed by the winning streaks of Geelong and Collingwood and the aura of Melbourne, but guess what: they’ve beaten all three of them this year. They’ve also claimed the scalps of the Dockers, Tigers and Dogs. They are the here and now.

Maybe Sydney are the ‘right time, right place’ team of this season. They have a midfield that bats sneakily deep, a forward line that has many threats in the air and on the ground, and an all-ground defence that is well honed and getting sharper.

(Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

2. Melbourne Demons

It’s hard to get Melbourne’s finals series out of your mind when thinking about what the Demons are capable of this year. Winning each final by an average margin of 63 points will do that, with the preliminary final and grand final drubbings one of the greatest one-two punches in the game’s history.

Are they capable of reaching those levels again? If so, then put down your glasses. If not, they can still go all the way.

When the Dees bring their A game, as they have done in pulverising wins against Brisbane and Freo in recent times, then you don’t want to be with anybody else. But then you remember that those appearances have been sporadic and that they have a 0-4 record against their fellow top-four sides this season.

Winning a premiership gives you credits that last the next season and beyond. People will still believe in you. Do Melbourne give the impression that their best is yet to come in 2022? You’d like to think it is. But perhaps they just don’t have it this year, not a full month of it anyway.

Kysaiah Pickett of the Demons celebrates kicking a goal. (Photo by Albert Perez/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

1. Geelong Cats

Ah, Geelong. Every year they tease us and every year they finish just like the previous – with a finals loss and no silverware.

Can we expect more of the same this time around, showing all the signs of age and slowness when the heat goes up in finals, befitting the oldest team in the league? Or have they finally unlocked the secret to extending their home-and-away dominance through September?

Their form is more irresistible than it’s ever been. Thirteen wins in a row is a ridiculous number, and an average winning margin of almost seven goals during that run is even more emphatic.

Half of their forward line were named All-Australian this year, their defence gives up nothing, and they have a midfield that is incredibly even and deep.

Players like Sam Menegola, Brandon Parfitt, Gryan Miers, Jon Ceglar and Mark O’Connor might not even be in the starting 22, and there is another handful of decent players not getting a game outside them.

The Cats deserve to be the number one seed, and we might look back in a month and marvel at how obvious it should have been. But the fact they have consistently fallen over, often spectacularly, gives enough pause to say it could be anyone’s year.

Geelong, Melbourne, Sydney and Richmond are the four most likely premiers. The Cats might be just that good, the Demons have the power, the Swans are peaking at just the right time and the Tigers can crash through them all with a wave of momentum if they get it right.

Collingwood, Fremantle, Brisbane and the Bulldogs might win a final or even two but are tougher to make a case for. The Pies’ luck – and a lot of it is luck – will run out, the Dockers aren’t good enough, the Lions can’t defend and the Dogs have surely been too poor to turn it around.

Bring it on!