Who is most likely to win the premiership from here?

Well, that was some kind of start. I’m only 25 years old so I don’t know if that was the greatest weekend of football in history, what I do know is that it’s the best weekend I can ever remember. Even the game that threatened be a stinker was unbelievable.

As a quick anecdote, I couldn’t cope with the Richmond loss and decided not to watch the Friday night game. Instead, I chose to indulge my girlfriend in a Below Deck marathon, because there’s no better therapy than Captain Lee calling his crew “sports fans” in the Bahamas.

By halftime of the game, I had received 10000 texts about how good the game was so I watched the third quarter on my computer. My reactions and convulsions were such that my girlfriend told me to put it on the TV. We went back to Below Deck afterwards.

The footy was so good it pulled a woman in her mid 20s away from reality television.

But now with the dust settled it’s time to list who I think is most likely to win it from here.

1. Geelong Cats

I am hesitant to put Geelong here. They have been the benchmark this season, have probably the most dangerous forward line footy has seen since the 2017 Crows, and are so well settled across all three lines. So why am I hesitant? They played one of their worst games for the year against the Pies and still stormed home to win. Blind Freddie can see they are the best side.

I’m hesitant because we have been here before.

Geelong are 4-15 after a bye since 2012. The conventional thinking is that they are an older side so they need the weekly ticking over, but this is a difficult thing for me reconcile given they’ve been losing these games for a decade. Having said that, they have kind of been an older side for a decade as well.

This post-bye record is also reflected in prelim finals. Since 2016 Geelong have finished outside the top four once, and yet have only made one grand final. They have lost four prelims, most demoralisingly to Melbourne by 83 points in 2021. They just tend to lose these games.

The question, really, is whether this season is any different? I say it is. They have blooded more kids this year with a little bit of dash, like Max Holmes is one that immediately springs to mind. Tyson Stengle being added to the forward mix has added some class and has meant that it’s no longer Hawkins/Cameron or bust.

In addition, the defence is proving itself dominant built around Tom Stewart. The Cats are a dangerous mix of third in point per game and second in least opponent points per game.

They’re Anne Hathaway. The total package.

Gary Rohan of the Cats celebrates a goal. (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

2. Sydney Swans

It seems dumb that, in this day and age, I have put both of the qualifying final victors at 1 and 2 on my rankings. The record of qualifying final winners in the preliminary final since the introduction of the bye in 2016 is 4-6, down from 17-1 from 2007 to 2015.

Statistically, one of these two excellent teams is likely to lose their prelim. But I don’t want to pick which one.

These are, to me, the two best teams clearly. Sydney were far more convincing, against better opposition, than Geelong in their qualifying final.

They out-Melbourned Melbourne hunting the ball, running in waves, applying relentless pressure on the ball carrier and proving themselves far too slick with ball in hand.

They also have an ace up their sleeve in Buddy Franklin who can provide an extremely effective decoy even in his mid-30s. Melbourne have no forwards who can provide a decoy because nobody is afraid of any of their forwards.

Sydney are both young and currently contending. If they can work out a plan for succession after Buddy there is no reason they can’t be Miles Teller after Whiplash – young, talented and in demand but potentially transcendent.

3. Melbourne Demons

Maybe it’s the long tail of how good they were last year, but I just can’t quit Melbourne. Where last year they looked full of running and desire, this year they look far more content with the greatest one-year dynasty since Collingwood in 2010.

They might be like ageing Al Pacino where you make excuses for performances like John Milton in The Devil’s Advocate until one day they’re doing Jack and Jill and you have to remind yourself that this was the man who played Michael Corleone.

Petracca has a broken leg, Brown looks like North made a Belichickian “one year too early not one year too late” move, Lever was exposed without May through the year and there just, simply, isn’t enough forward of centre. The return of Tom McDonald is being treated like they’re going to bring in a sober (for once) Wayne Carey. And yet I still saw Righteous Kill. I just can’t quit them.

Their demolition of Brisbane in round 23 was Pacino in Any Given Sunday or The Insider, a reminder what they can do when they’re in the mood. In that game they looked ferocious, ominous, engaged and when they look like that they look unbeatable. It just has not happened enough this year.

And it is not even really a statistical issue, other than the fact that they cannot pile up the stat that matters – points. They’re first in contested possessions, second in meters gained and second in intercepts. They just don’t score enough and they’re just not desperate enough this year ranking 15th in one percenters.

And yet, I still have them third. Somehow the prelim I assume they will play against Geelong feels like a 50/50.

(Photo by Will Russell/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

4. Fremantle Dockers

Perth fans have a bigger persecution complex than the 45th President of the United States who a lot of experts and smart people said was the most persecuted person ever. A lot of very intelligent people have said that. Despite that, it’s pretty obvious that Fremantle are a very good side whom I expect to beat Collingwood handsomely.

The Ewing Theory Committee has been in deep discussions about Nat Fyfe, considering if he is a candidate for the prestigious award. The committee decides whether a team is better off without their best player because when that player is out the team functions better instead of revolving around one superstar.

If Fremantle win the premiership he will be awarded the first Ewing Theory trophy to be handed out since the Nationals traded Bryce Harper and proceeded to win the World Series. But that’s just the thing, this Freo side is no longer reliant on five guns. They are a young, ferocious and, dare I say it, fun side.

Serong and Brayshaw are dominant around the ball with Fremantle leading the league in disposals and are 5th in clearances. They are statistically the best defence in the league and they are just good enough forward of centre ranking 13th in points per game.

They also have Jai Amiss who appears to be incapable of not kicking a goal when he takes a shot. They are a damn good side that I expect to play in a preliminary final

5. Brisbane Lions

Brisbane, as far as I can tell, won their grand final. Lachie Neale, the star around which it all revolves, put on like 3 capes when he beat Richmond on his own but I just cannot see it again. Brisbane were, this year, basically the same side they have been under Fagan: eminently watchable but ultimately fatally flawed.

They were, again, dominant out of stoppage and electric to watch when in full flight. They also ate territory like a fat kid at a chocolate factory but they, again, struggled to force turnovers and apply pressure. Their brand just doesn’t seem to stand up in the tight and pressurised September environment.

They are a team of luxury players like Daniel Rich and Joe Daniher and they just don’t have enough players like Neale, Harris Andrews, who had an extremely down year by his standards, or Charlie Cameron who can do the things that are needed to win at a high level in the modern AFL.

Beyond that, even despite the mettle they showed against the Tigers, which was extreme, they have proven themselves again and again as a brittle side. The lost premiership in 2020 should go down as one of the great missed opportunities in AFL history.

For the first, and likely only time, the Lions could have played in a Grand Final at home. They were a very good side finishing second only on percentage yet they could not even get to a Grand Final, getting smoked by Geelong in the prelim. When they didn’t win that year, I wrote them off as ever winning one with this core. I have no reason to depart from that position.

(Photo by Albert Perez/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

6. Collingwood Magpies

There’s a scene in the The Simpsons where Bart and Lisa start a lemonade stand. It’s pretty slow going for the first part of it until they puts a dollar in the jar to “prime the pump”. As soon as the dollar hits the bottom of the jar people coming running wanting some of that sweet lemonade.

That’s the pies this season, and the dollar hitting the bottom of the jar is the end of their luck.

It’s over. It has to be.

Losing that game to Geelong had to be the game that burst the bubble. They do not have the statistical profile of a contending team ranking top five only in tackles, metres gained, clangers and turnovers. They are middle of the pack or lower in everything else.

Their season made no sense, other than the fact that they believed. I think that Craig MaCrae saw that too with his comments about the players acting like ‘losers’ after having lost the game.

If they were going to win the premiership it had to be a 2011 Mavericks type run with Scott Pendlebury being the Dirk-like figure that the club rallied around. In that run, the bubble never burst and it seemed like in money-time Dirk couldn’t miss.

For a long time it felt that the same thing was going to happen for Collingwood, then Jeremy Cameron and Gary Rohan took a sledgehammer to the balloon. Rohan probably needs to get his elbow looked at by the physio he went at the balloon so hard.

Collingwood to me are clearly the least likely side to win it all.

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