Where Socceroos vs Argentina will be won and lost - and do we have any chance of stopping a Messi on a misison?

Whilst the emotion around the Socceroos’ advancement to the World Cup round of 16 has been palpable, the passion created will have little to do with the result tomorrow morning.

There is a seriously challenging game of football to be played against world powerhouse Argentina, with the reality that a genius named Lionel Messi will be just one of the gifted players whom the Australians must combat.

Coach Graham Arnold has managed the campaign expertly thus far and navigated the group stage with a core group of players that will most likely be called on again to produce a result. That stretches the resources and will require yet another superhuman effort for the Socceroos to shock the world, beat Argentina and advance to the quarter-finals.

With less than 24 hours remaining until kick-off and nervous tension rising, here is everything you need to know heading into the match.

The Opposition

Following a stunning loss to Saudi Arabia in the opening days of the tournament, Argentina qualified as the top ranked team in Group C after wins against Poland and Mexico. They have scored a total of five goals, conceded just two and maintained clean sheets in both of their wins.

Lionel Messi has scored twice, one a controversial penalty against Saudi Arabia and the South Americans have enjoyed the lion’s share of possession in each match. Against the Saudis, superior control in midfield saw 70 per cent possession achieved and 15 shots on goal, subsequently, 59 per cent of possession was won against Mexico and a dominant 74 against Poland, where 23 shots were created.

Defensively, Argentina have been solid, permitting just three shots on target across the tournament thus far and in attack, a patient game of control and movement has created the chances required to earn the two decisive victories that were necessary to advance.

The Socceroos

After a humbling start to the World Cup, the Australians have been inspired ever since. The 4-1 loss to France was far from an embarrassment, yet a galvanising of spirit and effort was required against Tunisia, where a single first-half goal proved enough, despite the Africans pounding the Australian defensive block late in the match.

A second 1-0 win against Denmark shocked many, with the Danes unable to find the net against a team capable of snatching goals on the counter and then defending a lead. The Aussies have scored just twice, conceded four and match the Argentinians with their two clean sheets.

However, the possession stats read in contrast to their opponents for this match, with just 37, 41 and 31 per cent of the ball having been won across the Socceroos’ group matches. What we have seen from Argentina thus far suggests that their control and fluidity of ball movement will once again have the Australians defending for long periods and hopeful of a counter-attacking opportunity.

Fatigue

The World Cup is an enormous physical challenge for teams advancing beyond the group stage, with just three days break permitted for both these squads and some heavy legs and cramp certain to feature again.

That could see changes to both starting teams and the Australians under particular pressure after relying heavily on a settled eleven thus far. The movement and speed of Keanu Baccus alongside Aaron Mooy in defensive midfield appeared positive for the Socceroos in the second half against Denmark, yet Craig Goodwin does appear to have succumbed to a niggle and Mathew Leckie has exhausted his tank in three matches, where he has performed as well as any Socceroo.

Argentina have been far more rotational in their approach, with significant changes in the back four and similar variations in midfield, suggesting that the squad has been managed well and perhaps better off physically than what must be a fatigued Socceroo group.

The two constants for Argentina appear to be Messi and Angel Di Maria, with the threat they pose only magnified by the likely inclusion of Lautaro Martinez on the left side of attack.

The tactics

From what Argentina have shown in Qatar thus far, outside the stunning collapse against Saudi Arabia, they look like a calm, passionate and explosive team that is content to sit on the ball for long periods before finding the crucial and precise pass that exposes defences. It does appear more likely a case of when rather than if whilst watching their attacking build-up, and that spells danger for the Socceroos, with plenty of defending certain to do in their back third.

The Australians were able to block passing lanes against the Tunisians and the Danes during the first halves of those matches and will need to do so again against the South Americans. However, maintaining that intensity for the full 90 minutes proved difficult in both fixtures and the Argentinians pose a potentially even greater attacking threat.

The Socceroos have been exposed down both flanks at times, with Milos Degenek and Aziz Behich certain to be tested again by the speed and skill of the Argentinian wide men. The communication between central defenders Harry Souttar and Kye Rowles and their retreating defensive midfielders will be key and has been one of the highlights of the Socceroo performances in Qatar.

The verdict

It is hard to see the Socceroos finding another effort capable of blunting Argentina sufficiently to keep a third clean sheet for the tournament and thus, at least one goal will need to be found at the other end. That will be a challenge for the Australians against what looks like an organised and proficient Argentine defence.

Messi looks like a man on a mission in what could well be his swansong as the greatest player of the modern era.

Despite what will be a brave and committed effort from the men in gold, the quality of the Argentinian team should prevail over the 90 minutes and see them advance to the quarter-finals.

The details

Socceroo Squad

Mat Ryan, Andrew Redmayne, Danny Vukovic, Milos Degenek, Aziz Behich, Joel King, Nathaniel Atkinson, Fran Karacic, Harry Souttar, Kye Rowles, Bailey Wright, Thomas Deng, Aaron Mooy, Jackson Irvine, Ajdin Hrustic, Keanu Baccus, Cameron Devlin, Riley McGree, Awer Mabil, Mathew Leckie, Jamie Maclaren, Jason Cummings, Mitchell Duke, Garang Kuol, Craig Goodwin, Marco Tilio

Argentina Squad

Emiliano Martinez, Geronimo Rulli, Franco Armani, Nahuel Molina, Gonzalo Montiel, Cristian Romero, German Pezzella, Nicolas Otamendi, Lisandro Martinez, Marcos Acuna, Nicolas Tagliafico, Juan Foyth, Rodrigo De Paul, Leandro Paredes, Alexis Mac Allister, Guido Rodriguez, Papu Gomez, Enzo Fernandez, Exequiel Palacios, Lionel Messi, Angel Di Maria, Lautaro Martinez, Julian Alvarez, Paulo Dybala, Angel Correa, Thiago Almada

Match details

Socceroos vs Argentina
When: Sunday 4th November 2022, 6am (AEDT)
Where: Ahmad bin Ali Stadium, Al Rayyan, Qatar
Broadcast: SBS
Betting: Socceroos $14.00 Draw $6.50 Argentina $1.20