ANALYSIS: Count Roosters in title race after beating Bunnies, Dolphins dare to dream after going 3-0 in Newcastle

It had been a slow start to the season from the Roosters. Now, they’re right up there with the favourites after coming from two tries down to grab a statement derby win, edging South Sydney 20-18 at Allianz Stadium.

This didn’t quite match the fire of the previous finals meeting – how could it? – but was still heavy on drama. From the first minute, which saw Hame Sele depart with a category one concussion, there were hits flying.

We ended with just two sin bins this time, for Joey Manu and Michael Chee Kam, but the niggle was always there. Cody Walker and Nat Butcher are likely still jawing away at each other now.

Beyond that, there was a great game of footy. The Roosters looked dead and buried early on in the face of a Souths onslaught, but from the moment Brandon Smith and Jared Waerea-Hargreaves entered, the momentum shifted to their favour.

The Bunnies rallied late and took it to the final play, but they leave with nothing. It’ll hurt, but 1-2 at this time of year won’t bother them given the trips to Penrith, Cronulla and now the Roosters that they have undertaken.

Jaxson Paulo excelled on a wing and scored twice, Campbell Graham and Joseph Suaalii had a ding dong in the centres and both packs unloaded on each other.

This time, the footy was the major talking point and not the fights. Trent Robinson will be happy with that: he took aim at the coverage in the build up for overly focussing on last year’s sin bin special.

“It’s been so negative this week from you guys,” said Robinson. “From our side it’s been so positive. From the other side, everyone thought they were going to win tonight. It’s been so negative.

“It’s been so negative with everyone having a go at (Victor) Rads and Jazz (Waerea-Hargreaves) and having a go at (Joseph) Suaalii and (James) Tedesco.

“It’s been negative all week, and then we come out and play a game, so let’s focus on the footy. Don’t blow something small up from both sides. It was a push and a shove and something that shouldn’t happen, and then someone reacted. So what? Stay on task and talk about the game.”

(Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)

Count the Roosters in for premiership race

Both Souths and Penrith have already lost this year, but it’s firming up already that those two are going to set the pace in 2023. On this evidence, the Roosters are right in that conversation too.

Souths began far the stronger and it looked like the Chooks were going to get blown off the field. For 20 minutes, it was vintage Demetriou-era footy, played at breakneck speed.

Through the first half hour, there was one stat that told the tale: the Roosters had 55% of the ball, resulting in 13 sets, zero line breaks and zero points. Souths, who had 45% of the ball, but had managed 15 sets, three line breaks and ten points.

Possession is measured by time, whereas sets, obviously, measures how many attempts to attack a team has. From those numbers above, it’s clear that Souths were playing notably faster than their opponents: a Souths set was approximately 120 seconds each and a Roosters set was around 140.

That makes a huge difference. It’s far more fatiguing for the defence, who constantly have to go back and forth on each tackle, allowing the Bunnies to play against a line that isn’t set and is blowing just to get onside.

It moved the whole game into the Roosters’ end in the first half and, even at this early juncture of the year, the Bunnies’ good ball attack seems to be in sync.

“The story of the game was that we didn’t ice our chances,” said Jason Demetriou. “We had three or four tries that we left out there, clear cut ones where it was great effort from them to defend them. We had seven line breaks to four but a 62% completion rate. 

“I don’t think we made errors overplaying. We’re making errors playing the ball. We’re getting ready to pull the trigger but then blokes aren’t in control when they play it. It’s important that we look individually, not outwards and not for external excuses.”

But with the introduction of Brandon Smith and Waerea-Hargreaves, the Chooks kicked into gear. It might have been a gambit from Trent Robinson to have his best men on at the end of the half and if it was, it was a masterstroke.

They suddenly played straighter, with Smith keeping the markers honest. His try was a classic example, sending Lachlan Ilias well past the ball and opening a big space behind. It brought them a half time parity that wasn’t entirely deserved.

They’ve got a really good system of attack and they executed two good plays. To go down 10-0 was disappointing but credit to them. 

“We held our cool and Brandon and Jared changed momentum,” said Trent Robinson. “I felt like we dominated from there on in. We handed over the ball cheaply a little bit in the second half but we defended that much better. 

“There was opportunities there around their ruck, Brandon found Jared and then Brandon played off the back of the back of Jaz as well. The ability to fall through the line like he did was so simple but so effective.”

The Roosters’ success came from an ability to manipulate the edge defence and the width of the Souths’ line. The Rabbitohs love to condense the field and make sides try to go around them, but Luke Keary’s smart kick for Daniel Tupou brutally exposed this tactic. 

In Round 1, the Roosters lacked both cohesion and resilience. In Round 2, they had a lot more grit but still failed to execute. In Round 3, with the game going against them and an elite opponent on the other side, they brought it all together.

Looking at their roster, this should happen a lot more than it has in the last year or so. This looked like a proper Roosters team, good now and with the potential to get a lot better. Watch out.

(Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)

The hits kept coming – and the errors

There’s two ways that you can look at the error rate in this game. If we’re being positive, there was some huge defensive intent on display that forced errors.

If we’re being extra positive, there was a commitment from both sides to play expansively and at speed – neither of these coaches have been overly concerned with completion rates in the past and have always empowered their teams to attack.

But still: seven sets in a row ended with errors within the first three tackles. It became a question of who could actually get into a position to attack, which eventually fell to the Roosters.

Granted, that came after Souths completed bombed a try – or Joey Manu saved one, if you prefer – followed by two penalties.

Luckily for the Roosters, they were the ones who controlled themselves first and took advantage. They showed their backbone in the first half, then their skill either side of half time to take the lead. Now, it was their coolness under pressure that opened up a lead that Souths would never overturn.

Warlord or warhorse?

Tom Burgess called Jared Waerea-Hargreaves a ‘warlord’ in the week, but warhorse might have been more appropriate.

The veteran pack leader was exceptional, topping 150m across two stints, with several defining carries that saw the Kiwi enforcer win swift play the balls. Moreover, nearly 60 of those metres were post-contact, showing his willingness to arc up at opposition middles and use the old legs to pump forwards.

The first Jaxson Paulo try was directly off one such carry, where Jared took Cam Murray for a ride, hit the deck and got up fastest.

Last year the Chooks were 1-4 when JWH didn’t play, and even as his minutes diminish and age catches up with him, the impact he can have when properly managed is still considerable. Just ask Souths.

Newcastle 20 – 34 Dolphins

The Dolphins’ incredible start to the season has continued with a hard-fought 34-20 win over a depleted Newcastle side.

Dual hat tricks for Tesi Niu and Jamayne Isaako were the headline act, but again, this was a supreme collective effort that capitalised on every Knights mistake and iced all their big moments.

Wayne Bennett’s men had been widely tipped as wooden spoon certs, but are now three from three and sitting pretty at the top of the table.

Newcastle were without Kalyn Ponga and Jayden Brailey from their spine, plus Tyson Frizzell, Adam Elliott, Jack Johns and Kurt Mann. Such was the injury crisis that Adam O’Brien was forced to field three debutants from the bench.

They were hamstrung by a horror night from winger Dom Young, who made five errors, and a late HIA for Jackson Hastings that saw him removed from the run-in with the game on the line.

Felise Kaufusi was binned for this part in getting Hastings off the field with 11 to play, but ironically, his 10-minute break saw him return to action while the victim of his late hit was unable to come back due to the 15-minute stand down for head knocks.

In the end, the Dolphins got another two late with a man light and walked it in. Nobody believed it could start like this, but the dream continued in Redcliffe.

Wayne’s old guard are going to be a problem for lots of teams

It’s a cliche, but you know exactly what you’re going to get from a Wayne Bennett team. It’s impressive that, just three games into their existence, the Dolphins already have an identity.

It’s not the sexiest football ever seen, but quite a lot of the NRL isn’t that good and there’s a lot to be said for being a really functional team in a league with lots of dysfunctional teams.

Their previous two games showed the value of the complete and compete style of footy that Bennett loves, because it keeps you in games enough that, when the other team makes mistakes, you’re close enough to jag the result. 

You could easily make the argument that there’s 16 better rosters in the comp than theirs, but this team are already extracting the absolute maximum from the talent they have at their disposal and, in a league scratching around for cohesion, that’s a big asset.

(Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)

Tonight showed the other side of that, however. On a night where they were favourites, they struggled to put away a team that fought hard but lacked key players.

The long-term project in Redcliffe will be to start solid and add flair later, and in truth, there will be few occasions in 2023 where a conservative, committed style won’t be the best option.

When the expansive stuff came, the execution was slick. Doubtless this team will be beaten by every decent side that turns up and plays half well, but for year one, that’ll be absolutely fine

Hat trick hero wingers Niu and Isaako grew another leg tonight and Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow continues his stellar start. None of these have looked anywhere near as good as they currently do, and that is Uncle Wayne to a tee.

Newcastle can take a lot of pride from this

The Knights didn’t just lose a lot at home last year – they got absolutely trounced. Nine times in 2022, they were thrashed in front of their own fans, who kept turning up to see the slaughter.

This team, materially at least, isn’t enormously different to that one, but they seem to have grown a backbone. Certainly, on the showing of tonight, there’s something about Newcastle.

They were seriously depleted, without several of their most experienced players and, crucially, their starting five eighth and hooker in Ponga and Brailey, plus the pack omissions, plus the the rookies on debut.

It was a night that, regardless of the result, had to be about effort and togetherness. There was plenty of that. 

They needed their older, more experienced heads to show up and they did. Tyson Gamble reined in his more provocative elements and played sensibly, Hastings pulled strings and Dane Gagai offered plenty.

Lachie Miller, who while he lacks NRL experience is a 28-year-old Olympian, was electric and caused constant problems. 

In many ways, it must infuriate Adam O’Brien. If his team had shown half the fight they have displayed in the last two weeks last year, it wouldn’t have been the disaster it was.

It blew out late, as it was always likely to, but there’s plenty to take from this.