ANALYSIS: Why pick Richie Arnold, and what does Wallabies call up tell us about how Eddie wants to play?

A lot has been written about Eddie Jones’ appointment as coach of Australia since it was announced in January. However, we haven’t yet had any real insight into how Jones plans to approach the tactical challenge of the World Cup this year.

That is, at least, until he announced his 33-man training squad for their three-day meet on the Gold Coast this month.

Among the surprises was the inclusion of Richie Arnold. Toulouse-based Arnold was included while twin brother Rory Arnold, based in Japan, was left out.

Rory’s team Hino Red Dolphins were excluded from the Japanese league this year for a bar fight, yet Arnold has chosen to stay with them for the season. It is a move which hasn’t pleased Jones – as he made clear in typically blunt fashion (“We don’t pick players that make Hino trucks”). Richie makes the squad, although he will stay in France and participate only in online sessions.

What can we tell about how Jones plans for his Australian side to play from his selection?

Arnold has featured in Super Rugby but briefly. He played for just over 300 minutes and made eight starts in his two seasons there; one for Western Force and one for the Brumbies. He bounced around in the Japanese leagues before moving to France and Toulouse.

That career trajectory mirrors another second row we should expect to see plenty from in France, Thibaud Flament. Despite their famous name and significant riches, Toulouse have had great success in identifying undervalued talent. Since his move, Arnold has featured 82 times for the French giants. Jones has commented on how Toulouse build their pack around Arnold. It’s not hard to see why, at 2.08m and 120kgs Arnold is a behemoth in a sport of behemoths.

Arnold ranks seventh in the league by metres per carry. His carries are peppered with hard yards off static ball. The kind of thing that Australia have been crying out for in recent matches.

Note how he runs into three defenders but still gets over the gain line and presents quick ball. Although he returned an intercept half the pitch against Brive earlier this season, he isn’t going to put up garish metres carrying numbers. His skill is in powerful short carries which create the space for Australia, or Toulouse, to break out in the phase or two following his carry.

In the current season he has added an offloading game to his strong carrying one. Last season for Toulouse he didn’t offload a single time, this season he has done it six times already. Offloading forwards are considered the rule in France rather than the exception. This development will directly affect Australia as well though if Arnold is selected. Carries become more effective when defences become aware of your offloading game. Suddenly defenders will look to stop the offload which will make the carry more effective as the tackles get higher and higher.

His lineout work is excellent, unsurprisingly given his height. His five lineout steals are the 5th most in the Top 14 and his 48 takes rank second for Toulouse behind Alexandre Roumat. His role for Australia will be a simple but a crucial one; solidify the lineout and push them onto the front foot.

Look how he adjusts in the air to snatch the ball from the Castres side and is then able to readjust to deliver the ball to Antoine Dupont. That is more than just a height factor. His lineout work is exceptional both in the air and on the ground. His speed across the ground lets Toulouse use him even when defences are clued onto him being the main lineout threat. That also creates space for other receivers to operate as Arnold pulls attention away from them.

His movement to the front of the lineout drags the defence and gives Roumat a free catch in the middle. It’s an example of the interconnectivity of modern rugby. Arnold’s threat frees up a teammate to thrive. A big reason for Roumat securing as much lineout ball as he has is because Arnold manipulates the defence. Notice how as soon as Roumat hits the deck, Arnold has swung round and added his heft to the maul, resulting in a Toulouse penalty.

Unfortunately, his defence, both tackling and jackalling, isn’t a strong factor. He has a tackle success under 80%, which ranks 147th among forwards in the Top 14 who have made at least 50 tackles. He has just a single turnover win. That will be a concern for Jones as solid tackle success rates and a breakdown threat are assumed as a given for modern locks.

Arnold brings attributes that Australia don’t currently have even if his all-round game isn’t perfect. A key factor is success. So far this season Arnold has lost just five of the 22 games he was involved in. His Toulouse side look set to compete in both the Top 14 play-offs and deep into Europe. Given that the Australian Super Rugby sides are a combined 12 wins and 18 losses, that experience of success should not be forgotten.

You might point out that there is another massive second row, in France, with recent success under their belt; Will Skelton.

Why is Arnold favoured over Skelton? Despite fitting a similar mould, Arnold and Skelton are very different players. Skelton offers little in the lineout. In the last two seasons he hasn’t stolen any lineout ball and has just eight lineout takes. Although La Rochelle use him in lineouts it is almost always as a lifter or to provide ballast in the maul.

Skelton’s carrying game is better than Arnold’s and his tackle success rate is better, although he doesn’t make many tackles per game. In terms of Australian selection, Arnold should be considered a challenger for Nick Frost and Cadeyrn Neville. If that’s the case, where does that leave Skelton? Oddly, we might be able to answer that by looking back to 2012 and Jones’ first Japan squads.

Jones’ plan when he took over Japan was to make them less reliant on foreign born players. His first ever starting lock pairing were Hitoshi Ono and Shinya Makabe, Ono was the tallest at 1.95m while Makabe was the biggest at 114kg. However, by the 2015 World Cup, Japan were playing with the larger Luke Thompson in the row. In addition, they had Michael Broadhurst at openside flanker who had also featured in the second row.

When he took over England, he did something similar. His first Six Nations team in 2016 with England featured a very heavy pack with Chris Robshaw, James Haskell, and Billy Vunipola as the back row. George Kruis and Joe Launchbury finished that ultra-heavyweight pack in the row. That size would give way to more mobility as players like Sam Simmonds, Tom Curry, and Sam Underhill featured heavily in England’s more recent squads.

Crucially, Jones liked to keep a heavier more powerful player in the backrow in addition to his two second rows. For so long, that was Courtney Lawes. A second row who made the switch to backrow with tremendous success. Dave Rennie has dabbled in the same thought process with Jed Holloway featuring as the lock-come-flanker.

If Jones wants to preserve the Australian second row as a lineout winning one, with carrying a secondary consideration, then he could attempt a Lawes like shift and select Skelton in the backrow. That would give Australia a huge pack but it might be necessary to solve the specific problem of the World Cup. Australia need to beat one of Fiji or Wales to progress from their group. Both teams have struggled recently when facing big packs with numerous carrying options. It would be a philosophical switch for Australia, but don’t be surprised if Jones does it just because he can.

If the plan works, Richie Arnold will be a crucial cog in its success. So far his ambition, attributes, and work rate have only benefited Toulouse, they might yet benefit Australia as well.