Super Rugby Pacific tipping week 11: The longer upsets elude us, the more nervous we be

Well, it was a bloody hard round to pick last weekend, but none of the results can really be considered upsets when the top four heading into Round 10 played each other.

All season we’ve been fearing the likely upset and then having to express surprise that it hasn’t arrived. It still kind of feels like anyone can beat anyone of their day, but the 11-point gap between the top five teams and the rest is a pretty significant body of evidence that works against that feeling.

But can we really be confident that upsets will continue to elude us? Or should we be getting more and more nervous about it? And if it’s the latter, who’s it going to be and who are they going to beat?

And very specifically, will it happen this week?

LAST WEEK: Digger 6, Geoff 4, Brett 4, Harry 4, Christy 3; The Crowd 4.

OVERALL: Digger 46, Brett 45, Christy 44, Geoff 43, Harry 38; The Crowd 44.

STREAK WATCH: The Hurricanes brought mine to an end of 27. But Digger might be ready to start a new run…

Digger

TIPS: CHIEFS, HURRICANES, CRUSADERS, BLUES, WARATAHS, BRUMBIES

Well, I won’t lie, that last round of tipping was very satisfying, better than s… ice cream! A fluke perhaps but satisfying, nonetheless.

The majority of this round does look straight forward, this used to make tippers nervous but it appears not so much this season, upsets seem less and less likely as the season wears on and squad depths start to shine and rest days are hopefully in the rear view mirror.

Brett’s note: you’ve downplayed the chance of upset way too much, for my liking mate…

There is no reason to tip against the Chiefs home or away right now, under the roof could prove even worse for the Highlanders this Friday. The Hurricanes playing in Fiji does make me nervous, but my boys should be good enough at set piece and in game management to get through.

Crusaders at home against the Force should be one way traffic, as will the Blues against Moana Pasifika.

Leicester Fainga’anuku of the Crusaders (Photo by Peter Meecham/Getty Images)

The two toughest games of this round to settle on are the Aussie derbies; all three possible end results are possible.

I have settled on both of the away teams in the end, I simply don’t trust the Reds to put a full 80 minutes together and I consider the Brumbies to be a decent shot at the title, I expect they will show this after what was a disappointing result for them last round.

SURE THING: After each round the drums get louder as to who should make the All Blacks each week, but let’s just wait to see what happens in the finals and enjoy this comp first.

Geoff

TIPS: CHIEFS, HURRICANES, CRUSADERS, BLUES, WARATAHS, REBELS

No messing about this week. Let’s first pick out the teams who can’t possibly win and put them to bed. Highlanders (v Chiefs), Force (v Crusaders) and Moana Pasifika (v Blues), thanks for coming.

The Drua in Suva fit the ‘can win’ criteria, but the problem for them is that the Blues have shown the Hurricanes how. No matter how uncomfortably steamy and slippery things get, there is a winning template for all visiting teams to follow, if they’re disciplined enough to follow it. Which this ‘Canes team is.

Also in the ‘can win’ category are the Rebels. Back home, with a couple of nice ‘ins’, and with so few opportunities to make up ground on Digger, let’s have a shy at the stumps from side-on with this one.

In the ‘should win but tip them at your peril’ are the Waratahs. Townsville is obviously the Reds’ friend, but with their attack so shapeless and disjointed, and the Tahs’ defence more steely than the Force’s was last week, let’s back the visitors to celebrate the big coronation – Phil Waugh’s pending ascension to the Rugby Australia throne.

SURE THING: A leak of Rugby Australia’s job description for the CEO role will throw up job requirements such as; ‘At all times, stand 1.5m behind the chairman’s right shoulder, smile and nod at regular intervals, and if asked for any comment, say “rugby league scrums are shit, Joseph Sua’alii is Jesus, I look forward to working for all of New South Wales, sorry… Australian rugby, and I agree with everything Hamish said.”

Brett

TIPS: CHIEFS, HURRICANES, CRUSADERS, BLUES, REDS, BRUMBIES.

We haven’t seen a team go through the regular season unbeaten since the Robbie Deans Crusaders went all the way, way back when. But now they’ve beaten the reigning Champions twice in a season, we do need to start wandering the 2023 Chiefs are the next to repeat the feat. Can’t see it ending in Dunedin this weekend.

The Crusaders look a bit good for the Force, and the Blues look more than a bit good for Moana Pasifika. But wouldn’t that be a hell of way to win back support in Auckland, by beating the Blues on their patch!

The Waratahs need to win in Townsville, but I suspect the Reds will have enough in them to stay ahead. Big game for both teams though. Huge, in fact. Sitting seventh and sixth respectively, both will from here doing everything they can to avoid the prospect of facing the Chiefs in week one of the Finals*.

The Rebels are in a funny spot, but the equation is the same: they need to beat the Brumbies in Melbourne on Sunday. I’m still a subscriber to the theory that says they’re a better team than the record shows, but the best way to prove that theory holds water is to win game they definitely can win. Make sense? Cool. I still think the Brumbies will be too good.

That just leaves the Drua-Hurricanes. Everything about this tells me the ‘Canes should be too good, and I am picking them because they’re just not as flaky as they’ve traditionally been. But it’s the Drua in Suva. And I can’t rule them out at all.

SURE THING: This week felt too easy, and too many easy weeks have come and gone this season. It’s on, there will be a shock result this weekend. It’s well and truly due.

Harry

TIPS: CHIEFS, HURRICANES, CRUSADERS, BLUES, REDS, BRUMBIES.

The Crusaders used to be Leinster. I mean, Leinster now were the Crusaders then. I was poised to take back one crucial margin point from Brett ‘Laidlaw’ McKay if the best Super Rugby side ever to play rugby could just knock over the upstart Chiefs. But the key to rugby is not to have your tries disallowed, or allow the other side tries.

Hence, I made no ground.

This round is simple. Elementary, my dear Mr. Ross.

The Chiefs are a level above the 2023 Highlanders. They are operating as if they are on a mission and will not be denied. Chiefs by a load of gravel.

Damian McKenzie of the Chiefs (Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)

The Hurricanes go to Fiji and methinks they will have fun there. Canes by fourteen knots. The Force go to Christchurch and will reap holy hell from the home side enraged by what happened last week. Crusaders by many lengths.

Moana Pasifika will have plenty of support at Eden Park in the stands but it is on the pitch that will count. Blues by a large and sad amount.

Australian derbies used to be low scoring affairs, but lately have been end-to-end excitement. The Waratahs go to Queensland and may make it close, but the Reds should have it by a tidy but slim margin.

The Brumbies should have just enough wit and poise and speed to round the rough Rebels.

SURE THING: On our weekly podcast, former Brumbies and Wallabies coach Dan McKellar pointed out the danger of looking only at “ball in play” totals because kick tennis keeps ball in play, but it is hardly a better spectacle than pre-planned lineout strike moves.

At this stage of the season, the increase in ball in play will begin to show up as it saps smaller squads with less fitness.

Christy

TIPS: CHIEFS, HURRICANES, CRUSADERS, BLUES, WARATAHS, BRUMBIES

Well, last week didn’t go to plan. It always looked like being the hardest week to tip and the cards didn’t fall my way. What about Digger though?

Sometimes going for the slight upset doesn’t always work. Lesson learned. On that basis, I’ll largely stick to what the bookies suggest.

The Chiefs should be too good for the Highlanders, but it wouldn’t surprise if the men from the south start making a run.

The Hurricanes will want a top two finish, so they can’t afford to take their foot of the gas. Nor can the Crusaders, who will hunt a bonus point against the Force who are still missing some of their key front-row forwards.

The Waratahs’ trip to North Queensland shapes as the match of the round. Tahs, just.

Noah Lolesio has the most to gain from his trip to the Stockade. Should the Brumbies hit back hard it’ll help his cause against the rising Carter Gordon. It’s the match-up of the round.

SURE THING: Headlines will revolve around who edged who – and not just on the scoreboard. It’s high stakes for Wallabies hopefuls.

Get your tips in now – The Crowd’s tips will be revealed Friday afternoon AEST.

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