Are waning Saints any good... or have they just had an easy run?

If the Saints play finals in 2023, it will be an extraordinary achievement.

Admittedly, that may read as an overly negative statement, but that’s not the intention.

Go back to the start of the year and the prediction was a lowly finish and more so, to embrace the potential addition of more top-end talent.

Well, you know what’s better than that? Giving existing, high quality young talent some reps in September. Even the senior players need a run around in finals, to get used to the pressure and the atmosphere.

The Saints have finished in the top eight once in the last 11 years, not that it’s news to their fans who’ll inevitably skip past that line. They know more than anyone the warm embrace of mediocrity and the quicksand that can swallow a supporter base.

As we approach Round 14, there hasn’t been a whole heap to necessarily complain about either. The Saints sit only percentage outside the top four having won eight of their 12 games and a consensus opinion seems to have them facing a rather favourable post-bye set of fixtures.

All this should be guaranteeing a finals appearance.

That’s what brings us back to the “if” we discussed in the opening line.

Yes, the Saints are within touching distance of the top four, but the rest of the season has to be purely about securing that finals berth, as they’re a bit of a mirage at the moment.

Where they sit on the ladder and the way they’ve played over the last couple of months doesn’t match up.

The Saints haven’t won two games in a row since Round 4 and have been on a steady decline since the Port Adelaide game in Round 7.

They were wasteful in the win against a hapless North Melbourne and they were destroyed by Adelaide. They had to fight back to win a game that should’ve been far easier against GWS, they got done by Hawthorn and they were unconvincing against an undermanned Sydney.

Now, whether it’s against Richmond or Brisbane in the upcoming fortnight, chances are, the alternating result streak will end for the Saints one way or another. For Ross Lyon’s team though, it’s about ensuring the results and the performances start to marry up.

Ross Lyon addresses his St Kilda players. (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

St Kilda’s whole identity has been about having a miserly defence, one that can win them a premiership. They remain tight, conceding the fewest scores inside 50 of any team, but they now rank ninth for inside 50s conceded.

On the season, they’ve conceded a score 39 per cent of the time their opponents enter attacking 50. In the last month, it’s up to 44.4 per cent. Keep in mind, that’s against Adelaide, GWS, Hawthorn and Sydney, only one of which is a team fighting for a finals spot.

Hardly the world-beaters that the Saints have found themselves positioned alongside.

Every St Kilda game is such a high-possession, highly uncontested game. They let their opponents have the ball as much as they want and set up in the defensive half to restrict effective transition. When they get the ball, they chip it around and play a slow style.

The Saints try to not expose their defenders to too many one-on-ones, only really trying to let it be Callum Wilkie or Dougal Howard and really, that’s because other than Wilkie, they’re all bang average when isolated.

It’s all about limiting the inside 50s, which they’ve done a poorer job of as the season has gone on. It improved in two quarters against the Swans, enough to get back into the game and win comfortably, but the overall trend since that fantastic start to the season is cause for concern.

Part of it can be the current misalignment between Jack Steele’s importance to the team and his clearly injury-affected ability to perform to that standard. At his best, the skipper is an A-grade midfield talent. He sets the tone with his pressure and while his tackling numbers are reasonable, he just can’t cover contest to contest as he does when fully fit.

There’s a heap of sameness in the midfield. There’s no breakaway speed of Zak Jones nor the class of Hunter Clark. Jade Gresham gets some minutes, as does Marcus Windhager, but it’s mainly slow, below average kicks.

The injury list has definitely improved but as expected, it’s probably ended up making things a little harder. Lyon was getting so much out of a team with no expectation, but it was all about adapting the style to suit the players that have been returning.

Sure, Max King has kicked 11 goals and is the star player of the club, but it’s about stats matching the eye test. He looks great, but the stifled offensive ball movement hasn’t changed and helped King necessarily. They’ve won two games with him, he kicked seven goals and took seven marks inside 50 across the two, but was lined up against the two most injury-impacted defences in the league, Sydney and GWS.

He kicked four goals against Hawthorn, but St Kilda’s offence completely let them down. They’ve not adapted well enough to his re-introduction.

And it’s sort of there, that we return to the “if” around finals.

Max King celebrates a goal. (Photo by Mark Metcalfe/AFL Photos/via Getty Images )

The Saints aren’t good offensively. They’ve scored more points since King has been back, but they’re no more efficient since his return. When you have a guy as good as this, you move the ball quicker and give him easier opportunities.

He’s creating his own luck at the moment. Look after your key forward Ross, don’t be like Carlton.

Defensively, they’re still the best across this season, but it’s waning and when it’s your identity, that’s not good. The defence can be stretched if the opposition has a star key forward and capable smalls. It’s why the Hawks, Crows, Power and even Giants got on good runs in recent times.

None of this is to detract from the way in which Ross Lyon has elevated this team as a whole and has really got the most out of a lot of players.

Mitch Owens in particular, with the absolute acknowledged bias of being in the front row of the bandwagon, is playing the hardest position in the AFL in a way that has made him one of the top five players on this team. He’s the rising star and when he transitions into the midfield, he’ll become a top 20 player in the league.

But that’s what happens when you give players a chance. That’s how the Saints have found themselves in fifth position on the AFL ladder after 13 rounds and have a couple of players to return with plenty of optimism for the future, albeit needing to address some key list issues.

It’s set up the season better than fans would’ve been hoping for at the start and gives them the opportunity to achieve something fantastic in 2023.

But then we think about that seemingly friendly fixture and wonder whether it’s all that straightforward. The rest of the season looks like this for the Saints: Richmond twice, Brisbane twice, West Coast, Melbourne, Gold Coast, North Melbourne, Hawthorn, Carlton and Geelong.

That’s a lot of teams with a lot of offensive talent. They’ll be hoping Lynch doesn’t return for the second Richmond game, or that Carlton doesn’t figure out how to use two Coleman Medallists by that stage.

The Saints really only need to win half their games to play finals, such is the way the season has panned out. Yet there are only two locks in a perceived easy run home. That’s not usually how we look at fringe top four teams, particularly at this stage of the season.

If the Saints tick the boxes and get some September action under their belt, it’ll be a wonderful achievement for the group.

It’s just that, even from just outside the top four, it’s still a big “if”.