Footy Fix: Anyone who seriously thought the Cats were missing finals... here's your reality check

In the space of 21 minutes, Geelong put to bed any thoughts – hopes, from some – that this would at last be the year they fall out of the finals.

Yeah. It ain’t happening.

If the Cats can run over the top of Melbourne like they did on Thursday night, without their best two midfielders in Patrick Dangerfield and Cameron Guthrie and without their best player in Jeremy Cameron for all but about seven minutes, then it’s really just a question of whether they can make a late charge for the top four or will have to defend their premiership the hard way from 5-8.

Almost 12 months ago, their victory over the Demons, also at GMHBA Stadium, was the moment the best team in the comp baton got handed over. Collingwood and Port Adelaide are the ones vying for that right now, but this is still a performance rife with symbolism for the victors all the same. Geelong might not be a Premiership Contender with the capital letters, but if that last quarter is there ceiling then you’re not going to be able to rule them out for quite some time yet.

This was clearly their most impressive performance of the season, for a number of reasons. The quality of the opposition, for one, even if the Dees did do what they do against good sides and basically lose all cohesion when heading inside 50.

To be so clearly dominated around the ball by two of the games best and toughest midfielders respectively in Christian Petracca and Jack Viney, and then flip the script on them totally for the final term, with essentially a second-string midfield with a 21-year old 41-gamer as your best player, is about as remarkable a performance as we’ve seen so far in 2023.

Tyson Stengle celebrates a goal. (Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

From nine inside 50s to start that quarter, having kicked five goals for the match, they banged on six against a side of almost mythical defensive stinginess. This Demons defence held Collingwood at bay on Queen’s Birthday two rounds ago, yet there Ollie Henry, Tanner Bruhn and Gary Rohan were, winning the tough ball, burning Demons with pure pace, kicking clutch set shots after just as clutch sliding marks.

The key to it all, as it was for the Cats in last year’s run to the premiership, was in their ball movement from defence. Intercept marking time and time again in defence as the Dees continually failed to hit up targets inside 50 – or even try, in many cases – it was all systems go.

There was little predictability in the way Geelong moved forward: a kick up the boundary line here, a sharp pass inboard there, occasionally bombing long and backing a Cameron-less forward line to bring the ball to ground and sometimes seeing enough in the way of leading options to try and lace them out.

This wasn’t a perfect performance by any means – Jake Lever ruled the skies in defence for the first three quarters under aimless bombs, while aside from Gary Rohan, who assuaged his obvious guilt at his role in Cameron’s concussion with a best-afield performance, few Cats were winning their battles against serious Demon company.

But they just kept giving themselves a chance. Understanding the Demons’ shambles of a forward structure meant being empowered to risk turnovers when moving the ball forward – in the first term, Melbourne had seven intercepts in their forward half, but managed just one goal from them.

On the other side of the coin, the Cats’ defence has adapted brilliantly to being more vulnerable than last year when teams actually get inside 50. Their solution tonight was to have Stewart play slightly higher than usual – a trade-off for giving Joel Smith enough space out the back to pop up with two goals – and given the Dees had 26 possession chains to quarter time starting in defence, and could only turn two into inside 50s, it’s fair to say it worked.

For three quarters, what was keeping the Demons in the game was their ferocious tackling when the ball hit the ground inside 50 – they had a staggering 19 tackles in there to three-quarter time – and then dominating the clearance count accordingly.

Combine the two, and you will always create enough chances to score from inside 50 stoppages, like this Kysaiah Pickett major.

By three-quarter time, the clearances were 36-23 Melbourne’s way. That’s a smashing severe enough to pretty much force of will four points your way even if you can’t make the most of them. And with a 17-4 advantage in forward half clearances, with three goals to one from them, they were happening in dangerous spots.

Indeed, the Cats’ major focus from the first three terms was almost to concede a clearance disadvantage, but prevent them from hurting. Tom Atkins would regularly attend centre bounces especially playing Petracca in a classic defender ‘back shoulder’ position, effectively pushing him towards the contest rather than breaking out the front into open space, as the Dees did so devastatingly in the 2021 grand final.

It meant by the final term, Petracca had nine clearances and 407 metres gained, both team-highs, but just five score involvements – for the best score involvement player in the league, that’s a sizeable win. He still had plenty of the ball, but with Atkins, Bruhn, Brad Close and others constantly hanging off him, it was hard to have an influence.

It’s a game plan that would seem tailor made to a wet, greasy night: force stoppage after stoppage in your attacking 50, and wait for the opposition to crack. But as it happened, the Cats mastered the conditions far better than Melbourne.

The Dees almost ran at a handball for every kick in the third term, despite the slippery ball: the Cats ended up with 22 fewer disposals, but 31 more kicks, as they looked to, whatever the cost, get the ball forward and get it there fast.

The goal that sealed the match summed it up best: frenetic pressure on the wing from Close on Lachie Hunter lets the speedy Max Holmes gather the ball: you’ll notice from the wide angle that there are no less than three Cats goal side of their Demons opponents when the tackle is laid. One of them, Tom Hawkins, has even come across from minding Lever in the usually more dangerous corridor to lend a hand at the pivotal contest.

Holmes doesn’t just blaze willy nilly: knowing the Cats have an advantage, he holds the ball and runs, long enough to draw Rohan’s man, Harry Petty, up at him.

His kick forward is haphazard, but it narrowly avoids lacing out Steven May, always the Demons’ last and most impenetrable line of defence. But with a slippery ball to handle, the moment that ball hits the ground, he’s at a disadvantage against the pacy Rohan. And the more the ball bounces and wobbles inside the Cats’ 50, the greater that disadvantage becomes.

Remarkably, it’s Rohan who gets to the ball first, bringing about his most defining moment of a magnificent performance. May’s last bid is to shunt him off the ball with a push to the side, but by the time he makes that call, he’s a split second late, and instead of pushing Rohan sideways, he can only shunt him slightly forward. As long as Rohan keeps his balance, he’s now goal side of May, and with his speed there’s no chance of the Demon catching him.

Rohan keeps his balance. He runs in. Goal. 18-point lead.

There were rumblings, if you cared to look, of what would unfold in the last term. The Cats won five inside 50 entries from possession chains starting in their defensive 50, having managed just six in the first half.

One of them was to Rohan: again beating his opponent, this time Brodie Grundy for some reason, out the back with pure pace, an open 50 in front of him, and another Cat in Close goal side to force Steven May to run back into the goalsquare rather than pressing up to try and pressure his kick off the boot.

The Dees, it turns out, were starting to crack, and it was only some desperate defence – and some sloppiness from Geelong at the crucial stage – that held them to one goal for the term.

By the finish, they’d kick five goals to zip from that source – notably, three would come in the final term, with the Cats’ forwards collectively pushing up the ground, and then beating their Dees opponents back with pure pace.

You could see that in Rohan’s goal, just as you could Mitch Duncan’s a minute later: set up by a tap forward from Henry and a soccer from Close on the wing, Tyson Stengle burns off Lever to win it at half forward, then hands to Duncan, who had done similar to Judd McVee.

There’s nothing May, the deepest defender, can do: caught in no man’s land, he’s not close enough to pressure Duncan as he kicks from 50 and nowhere near the goalsquare. It bounces through.

The Cats had just one inside 50 for the quarter, but with open space in their attack compared to the Dees, who just couldn’t generate the same speedy ball movement – nor were they allowed to – the Cats booted six with ease while it took an act of brilliance from Petracca to get the Dees their sole major.

There’s another reason, beyond Chris Scott’s masterful tactics, beyond the Demons’ flaws, that got Geelong the four points on Thursday night: class.

Only serious football teams have a player like Zach Guthrie – a defender who’s hardly kicked a goal in his life – absolutely NAIL this banana, with a wet ball, from 45 metres out and have it never look like missing.

Honestly, how could you think a team that can have nonsense like this happen could ever miss finals?

Unless they’re playing GWS, the Cats don’t lose at GMHBA Stadium. With five of their past nine there – and only one, against Port Adelaide, they’ll even be the remotest underdog in – you just could not possibly see them missing finals from here. Not if they’re capable of this.

Right now, they’re ninth – though if Collingwood can do them a favour and handle Adelaide on Sunday, they could easily finish the round in the eight.

On the basis of this supreme performance, it’s where they belong – and might just be the start of something even more impressive to come.