Origin out of the way, ranking the easiest to toughest draws for all 17 teams as race for NRL finals berths heats up

Now that the pesky State of Origin series is out of the way with Queenslanders soaking in their XXXX celebrations for another year, there’s the matter of the NRL premiership being there to be run and won. 

Eight rounds remain and 14 teams have a realistic chance of making the finals, Canterbury have an unrealistic hope while the Dragons and Wests Tigers can really only pray that they avoid the wooden spoon. 

The new competition format of 27 rounds, including three byes, has skewed the premiership ladder more than ever as we head into Round 20. 

Mercifully, once South Sydney have had their bye this weekend, it will mean there is only a one-game discrepancy between how many matches each team has played.

The Dragons and Raiders also get the week off, which means the remaining teams with arbitrary two-point bonuses up their sleeves are the Dolphins, Warriors, Bulldogs, Cowboys, Broncos, Rabbitohs and Eels in the final round.

(Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)

As is the case at this time of year every season, there are four races that matter – to finish in the top two (apart from the paltry prizemoney and the JJ Giltinan Shield there is no real benefit from being minor premiers), the top four for a second chance in the playoffs, the top eight to make the finals series and the dizzying heights of 16th to dodge the wooden spoon. 

In working out the strength of schedule for each team in the closing rounds, it is calculated by a tally of the remaining opposition’s current competition points on the ladder.

Remaining strength of schedule

from easiest to toughest

Team by team, here’s how each team is shaping up heading into the final stretch of the regular season. 

The run home for each team

1. Penrith (28 points, 11-5 record, +193 differential) 

Run home: Dolphins (away), Bulldogs (home), Sharks (home), Storm (home), Sea Eagles (away), Titans (away), Eels (home), Cowboys (home).

Strength of schedule: 173 (14th easiest) 

Predicted finish: They’re not the lock you would think they’d be to be minor premiers but with five of their remaining matches at home, the Panthers should finish in the top two without too much concern. 

2. Brisbane (28 points, 12-5 record, +95 differential) 

Run home: Bulldogs (away), Rabbitohs (away), Roosters (home), Cowboys (away), Eels (home), bye, Raiders (away), Storm (home).

Strength of schedule: 154 (equal-sixth easiest)

Predicted finish: The minor premiership beckons for the Broncos as they have the best record in the NRL, no major injury concerns and a bye still to come. As long as Reece Walsh lets his football do the talking.

Reece Walsh. (Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images)

3. Cronulla (26 points, 10-6 record, +134 differential) 

Run home: Warriors (away), Sea Eagles (home), Panthers (away), Rabbitohs (away), Titans (home), Cowboys (away), Knights (away), Raiders (home).

Strength of schedule: 179 (16th easiest).

Predicted finish: Their chances of a top-four berth are shakier than they look with seven of their remaining eight matches against teams in the top eight or within a win of the current playoff equation, which adds up to the second-toughest run home in the NRL. Fifth or sixth looks likely

4. Storm (26 points, 10-6 record, +65 differential) 

Run home: Roosters (away), Knights (away), Eels (home), Panthers (away), Raiders (home), Dragons (away), Titans (home), Broncos (home).

Strength of schedule: 172 (13th easiest).

Predicted finish: A crucial stretch looms over the next month – they need to account for the Roosters and Knights on the road before crunch clashes with Parra, Penrith and bogey side Canberra. Should finish fourth or fifth.

5. Canberra (26 points, 11-6 record, -55 differential) 

Run home: bye, Warriors (away), Knights (home), Tigers (home), Storm (away), Bulldogs (home), Broncos (home), Sharks (away).

Strength of schedule: 151 (fifth easiest).

Predicted finish: Good luck trying to predict this team. The Raiders have the fifth easiest remaining schedule with a bye and just three road trips on the horizon. But they still have a -55 differential despite also possessing the third-best win-loss record in the NRL. Could finish as high as third but just as likely to slip to the fringe of the eight.

6. Warriors (24 points, 10-7 record, +78 differential) 

Run home: Sharks (home), Raiders (home), bye, Titans (away), Tigers (away), Sea Eagles (home), Dragons (home), Dolphins (away).

Strength of schedule: 137 (second easiest).

Predicted finish: For those who believe in karma, the unheralded Warriors are getting rewarded for the largely unrequited sacrifices they made to keep the NRL running by spending three years on the road. They have four home games and the bye to come and no more current top-eight opponents after the Sharks and Raiders over the next fortnight. Could very well make the top four but a playoff berth is a near certainty. 

7. Parramatta (22 points, 9-8 record, +96 differential) 

Run home: Titans (home), Cowboys (away), Storm (away), Dragons (home), Broncos (away), Roosters (home), Panthers (away), bye.

Strength of schedule: 154 (equal sixth easiest).

Predicted finish: Written off prematurely earlier in the season, they’ve regrouped and apart from a hiccup when understrength against the Warriors last week, they’ve been leaping teams up the ladder. They’re likely to plateau between here and the finals with the top four a bridge too far unless they perform on the road in Melbourne, Brisbane and Penrith. Could even drop to ninth or lower if injuries strike as their depth is skinny.

(Photo by Matt King/Getty Images)

8. South Sydney (22 points, 10-8 record, +92 differential) 

Run home: bye, Broncos (home), Tigers (away), Sharks (home), Dragons (home), Knights (away), bye, Roosters (home).

Strength of schedule: 117 (easiest in the NRL).

Predicted finish: With a marshmallow soft draw, a decent differential and big guns like Latrell Mitchell, Jai Arrow and Campbell Graham returning from injury alongside their Origin stars, the Bunnies should hop into the top four and if the Broncos and Panthers stumble, could even threaten them. 

9. North Queensland (22 points, 9-8 record, +38 differential) 

Run home: Sea Eagles (away), Eels (home), Titans (away), Broncos (home), bye, Sharks (home), Dolphins (away), Panthers (away).

Strength of schedule: 165 (11th easiest).

Predicted finish: Have recovered after a slow start but need their Origin stars to keep firing and a good run with injuries to maintain their momentum. Their tussle with Parramatta next week could prove crucial to their playoff aspirations while they’ll also need to pull off some upsets against Brisbane, Cronulla and Penrith to get into the finals.

10. Manly (21 points, 7-1-8 record, -24 differential) 

Run home: Cowboys (home), Sharks (away), Dragons (away), Roosters (away), Panthers (home), Warriors (away), Bulldogs (away), Tigers (home).

Strength of schedule: 160 (equal eighth easiest).

Predicted finish: Not a lot to get excited about with this team, especially with Tom Trbojevic not coming back until 2024. Likely to drop another rung or two in the run home. 

(Photo by Ian Hitchcock/Getty Images)

11. Gold Coast (20 points, 7-9 record, -33 differential) 

Run home: Eels (away), Roosters (home), Cowboys (home), Warriors (home), Sharks (away), Panthers (home), Storm (away), Bulldogs (home).

Strength of schedule: (toughest in NRL).

Predicted finish: This team has flattered to deceive all year and based on performances, it’s hard to argue the case against the mid-season sacking of Justin Holbrook. They have individual stars but haven’t gelled as a team, particularly at the defensive end, and could finish as low as 15th with their tough remaining schedule. 

12. Dolphins (20 points, 8-9 record, -81 differential) 

Run home: Panthers (home), bye, Bulldogs (away), Knights (home), Roosters (away), Tigers (away), Cowboys (home), Warriors (home).

Strength of schedule: 141 (third easiest).

Predicted finish: Here we are in the middle of the July and a playoff appearance still can’t be ruled out for the pre-season wooden spoon favourites. They’ve shown signs of wear and tear mid-season but with four home games and the bye on the horizon, destiny is in their hands.

13. Roosters (20 points, 7-9 record, -92 differential) 

Run home: Storm (home), Titans (away), Broncos (away), Sea Eagles (home), Dolphins (home), Eels (away), Tigers (home), Rabbitohs (home).

Strength of schedule: 171 (12th easiest).

Predicted finish: If it doesn’t start happening in the next week or two, there will be no late surge from this year’s biggest disappointments. The halves have been in flux most of the season, a few big names have not lived up to their price tags and the roster is looking a little aged. Unlikely to rise any higher than the 12-14 ballpark of mediocrity which has been foreign territory for many years in Sydney’s east. 

(Photo by Matt King/Getty Images)

14. Newcastle (19 points, 6-1-9 record, +26 differential) 

Run home: Tigers (home), Storm (home), Raiders (away), Dolphins (away), Bulldogs (home), Rabbitohs (home), Sharks (home), Dragons (away).

Strength of schedule: 160 (equal eighth easiest).

Predicted finish: The bizarre aspect of this team is that they have scored 26 more points than their opponents this season despite winning just six of 16 starts. That can partly be attributed to their 66-point rout against the Dogs a couple of weeks ago but it shows they’re a solid side that lacks playmaking polish in tight games. Could rise a few spots but you wouldn’t put any money on them to somehow surge into the playoff picture.

15. Canterbury (16 points, 6-11 record, -216 differential) 

Run home: Broncos (home), Panthers (away), Dolphins (home), bye, Knights (away), Raiders (away), Sea Eagles (home), Titans (away).

Strength of schedule: 162 (10th easiest schedule).

Predicted finish: Up there with the Roosters as the biggest letdowns for 2023. For at least the third year in a row, Canterbury fans have been promised plenty and been served up a Dogs breakfast. With the worst differential in the NRL, they could slip into the wooden spoon territory if they’re not careful but that would require the Tigers to win three games so it’s probably not on the cards.

16. St George Illawarra (12 points, 4-13 record, -137 differential) 

Run home: bye, Tigers (home), Sea Eagles (home), Eels (away), Rabbitohs (away), Storm (home), Warriors (away), Knights (home).

Strength of schedule: 146 (fourth easiest schedule).

Predicted finish: The Dragons’ danger game is next week against the Tigers – win that and they’re all but assured of dodging what would be the joint venture club’s first wooden spoon. Capable of being giant-killers on their day, they’ll likely end up ahead of the Dogs and possibly a couple of others. 

17. Wests Tigers (12 points, 3-13 record, -179 differential) 

Run home: Knights (away), Dragons (away), Rabbitohs (home in Tamworth), Raiders (away), Warriors (home in NZ), Dolphins (home), Roosters (away), Sea Eagles (away).

Strength of schedule: 15th easiest.

Predicted finish: It would be a minor miracle if they don’t end up in last spot and judging by how their roster is shaping up for next year, a hat-trick of wooden spoons could be a very real nightmare for Tigers fans. They have no more games at Leichhardt or Campbelltown with the Round 25 game at CommBank Stadium their only home game left in Sydney with trips to Tamworth and Waikato making their tough run home even harder.