Forget the tank talk - Sam Mitchell has his Hawks on track for finals next year

Sam Mitchell is already establishing himself as one of the best coaches in the league and will have the Hawks playing finals in 2024.

There’s something brewing at Hawthorn under Mitchell, so much so that Champion Data’s also picked up on it and noted their overall improvement in the last three months of football.

They’re one of the best teams in the league for ball movement and their contested ball work is good too, but beyond that, their sheer competitiveness and the tactical mastery of Mitchell ensures that his Hawks are more than a handful to come up against.

Like any lowly rated team they’ve had their share of blowouts this season, but their bad showings have been matched by more than a handful of great displays.

Their victory over Brisbane remains the season highlight, their performances against Adelaide, GWS and Richmond were superb and their impending likely season double over St Kilda is nothing to sneeze at either.

In reality, Hawthorn’s been slowly building for a little while, even before Mitchell officially took over, and the opinion of their master plan to play finals next season actually dates back to 2021.

Hawthorn coach Sam Mitchell. (Photo by Daniel Carson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

From rumours to reality, the Hawks put in the young coach, dealt the veterans who they felt couldn’t add much more to the group and in doing so, completely shifted both expectation and reality – just read the comments of the aforementioned piece to see what many thought of the Hawks.

Mitchell was clearly rated as one of the best football minds in the competition when West Coast lured him across for the end of his career, and the opinion held strong when he was moved back across to take charge of Hawthorn’s VFL team, which let him build relationships before taking over as senior coach.

But right now, the way Hawthorn has been playing, there’s a level of calmness, understanding and quite frankly, cheekiness about Mitchell’s team.

In recent weeks, losses to GWS and Richmond have been heartbreaking, but the coach himself has said that he had very little in the way of negatives to say to his group, who played as well as they could’ve and were beaten by a better team.

There aren’t too many coaches of lowly-rated teams in the last two decades who have spoken about their team like this.

Now, if your eyes weren’t glued to Charlie Curnow’s 10-goal haul on Saturday, you may have caught an entertaining game between Richmond and Hawthorn.

For three quarters, the Hawks played largely on their terms, other than a little spurt at the start of the third quarter for the Tigers.

They were winning the contested ball in the midfield and sending it forward as much as possible, to put pressure on Richmond’s defence.

When the Tigers had the ball, it was sort of a funnelling system put in place, with the Hawks lined up on either side of the ball carrier in order to send them towards James Sicily. With the only aerial threat being a tired Jack Riewoldt, Mitchell designed the play to leave his skipper free and make sure he was at the forefront of any Tiger attacks. It worked spectacularly well.

Now, the Tigers ran over the top of the Hawks, kicking a last-minute winner. Nick Vlastuin was sent forward to try to restrict the impact of Sicily. Andrew McQualter’s tactical versatility deserves credit.

Yet while watching, it looked like the Hawks weren’t running the same way, not seeking to funnel the Tigers towards one part of the defensive 50. Finn Maginness was looser on Dan Rioli when he wasn’t on the bench and it wasn’t to do with the young Hawk’s fitness.

Josh Weddle. (Photo by Will Russell/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

Hawthorn can use a bit of a wall across the back half of the square, where their half-forwards and midfielders work back and occupy space. Yet in the last quarter, they went away from that. Day spent more time loose in defence but otherwise, it was a pure, head-to-head battle.

And that’s what we’ve seen a few times from Sam Mitchell and his Hawks in 2023. It’s four losses by 13 points or less, then there was the Bulldogs game in Round 7 where they were up at half-time and looking confident.

When the Hawks get in positions where they can potentially go on with it, Mitchell has actually changed the way they approach the game, while more seasoned opposition maintain their consistency.

It’s not to say that the Hawks would have won all those games. The opposition has generally been far stronger and of better quality. But watch those games back and you’ll see a definitive shift in approach once winning positions have been established. It’s worked against St Kilda and North Melbourne, but not so much elsewhere.

The only time they stayed consistent with what they knew worked was against Brisbane. David beat Goliath that day.

The aim of the game for young teams is to figure out how to win in different ways, as they’re always faced with different challenges.

Before the start of the season, many were critical of the Hawks, given their perceived lack of list quality. There was no star forward, no star midfielder and only James Sicily could be seen as a top player.

So, how do we then judge a coach that has had his team produce competitive quality in games against finals contenders, with a “poor list”.

A lot of it is about putting the right players in the right positions. Jai Newcombe’s become the club’s most consistent midfielder and has shown great versatility in his game. James Worpel has returned to his best and Conor Nash is a natural defensive midfielder who helps free up his younger teammates.

Will Day is the future of the club and is treated like a big deal. He’s the best midfield prospect who doubles up as an option behind the ball in the same way Callum Mills does.

If you haven’t been impressed by Connor Macdonald seven weeks since he moved up to the wing while Karl Amon pushed towards the back half, you’re not paying enough attention. He’s an example of the excellent draft choices this club makes, like they did with Josh Ward, Josh Weddle, Seamus Mitchell and Tyler Brockman.

Seamus Mitchell. (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

Mitch Lewis has made those who thought the Hawks lacked a quality key forward look really silly with his 31 goals and 35 marks inside 50 in 12 games.

We’ve seen spurts from other talented young players that all have a future and let’s not forget that most of the existing “experienced” talent, like the aforementioned midfield trio plus Dylan Moore, Jarman Impey, Blake Hardwick, Jack Scrimshaw – they’re all in their mid-20s at most.

The only question mark is on Denver Grainger-Barras at the moment, which has the Hawks seeking a defensive reinforcement in the way of potentially Esava Ratugolea or Brandon Zerk-Thatcher.

And that, is the key to all this. At the start of 2023, no one thought the Hawks had any quality.

By the end of 2023, the Hawks only really need a key defender to free up Sicily and another offensive option that can help Lewis and the smalls around him.

With a high draft pick in tow, there’s at least one top quality addition to be made to this group, one that has salary cap space and cards up its sleeve.

Now, there’s no suggestion whatsoever throughout this piece that the Hawks have intentionally lost games, but there have been tactical shifts made by Sam Mitchell at crucial moments in games that will hold this group in better stead in the future, when faced with similar challenges.

It’s what Chris Scott has done for years, it’s what Damien Hardwick did at the Tigers and really, it’s what Alastair Clarkson did from the outset of his time at Hawthorn to create a dynasty.

Sam Mitchell is already a top-five coach in the AFL and his team hasn’t even left the bottom four just yet.

Hawthorn will be playing finals in 2024. Don’t get left behind with your predictions when they do.